A. Shahmolki's polemic, “Unapologetic imperial rule“, is directed to all of those Iranians who back the American Neoconservative doctrine of regime change for Iran – those who desire Iran share the fate of Saddam's Iraq.
I want you all to look at the results of the war in the photos taken from this conflict in Iraq and then say you'd be happy to see your own hamvatan, perhaps, God forbid, your own family members slaughtered by impersonal American bombs just so you can be “rid of the mullahs”.
Have you no honor? No shame? Long live a free Iran that settles its problems by itself. Mullahs or no mullahs, we must face our problems ourselves.
In all likelihood this is the probable outcome of American style “regime change” brought to Iran: If the Americans come for us, the first thing the Basij and Pasdaran will do is raid the areas where pro-American sympathizers are and purge it of the traitors.
IRI intelligence is well aware of who will greet the Americans with hugs and kisses and shirini. They will kill and/or imprison tens of thousands before the Americans even begin bombing. Sad and brutal as it may seem, it would be necessary as any nation in such an emergency must rid itself of potential collaborators. The Americans have done so, as have the Europeans in their conflicts. Iran is no exception. Desperate situations require desperate measures.
When American bombs start dropping they will level Iran's infrastructure and industries in addition to killing tens of thousands of civilians and perhaps a hundred thousand soldiers, most of them draftees. The Americans themselves will lose dozens of planes (thanks to improved missile defense and GPS jammers) and perhaps quite a few ships, given Iran's improved naval defenses which are said to include the Russian made Shkval torpedo that the US has no effective counter measure for.
Even if 10% of the population resists the Americans this 10% will be well armed and highly motivated. When the Americans begin a ground war Iranian cities will be levelled as Iranians begin a guerilla war against the Americans in the cities and the Americans, fearful of urban warfare and the heavy casualties incurred therein, will bomb and shell and starve cities and towns into submission.
The guerillas utilizing Iran's citiscapes and mountain ranges as shelter will incur great losses on the Americans in transit between battle zones. Tens perhaps hundreds of thousands of Iranians will be killed, cities destroyed, and development thrown back 20 years or more. Starvation famine and worse will spread as Iran's infrastructure, agriculture, and industry will have been destroyed or damaged greatly.
American losses will be in the tens of thousands, perhaps more. Iranian defense, both conventional and unconventional will be bufferred by decades of preparation for this conflict as well as Chinese and Russian desire to test their own capabilities against the US. China and Russia will arm Iran with weapons never seen by the Americans, as well as Iran's own novel defense strategies. Something Iran evidenced in Iran's use of naval mines in the last conflict with the US (the Americans had no effective countermeasure for those mines).
American propaganda will justify killing innocent Iranians based on some supposed “false-surrender” behavior of Iranian guerilla partisans (as in Iraq). Iranians knowing full well they cannot surrender for fear of arbitrary execution will fight all the more vehemently. Both sides fearful of the other will make both sides brutal and uncomprimising.
After all the destruction, American occupation forces will be cornered by the opposition and despite the “blessings” they incur on the Iranian economy in the form of increased prostitution and drug sales (Iranians having not much else to offer once their economy and infrastructure have gone to the toilet), they will commit many small atrocities in the style of Vietnam.
A bloody, messy, destructive conflict just so we can be “rid of the mullahs”? You naive fools, Iran's destruction is the American/Israeli end in itself. They want to keep the entire region chaotic and squabbling. They hate the stability the IRI has been able to bring to Iran as an anti-American power in the region. You are fools to think they care about our “freedom” and “democracy”. They gave a real fuck about that under Pahlavi. Or the other brutal puppet regimes they've supported or do support and will soon support in Iraq.
The Americans will thrive as their losses will be just a few dozen thousand redneck, Black and Hispanic soldiers and “urban renewal” project contracts will prop their pro-American puppets. Losses to the American economy in weapons and defense related costs won't really be as much, since those funds go into the pockets of the defense industry (the core of American power).
This is just in the short-run.
Then there is the instability and civil war between the new pro-American regime and the remnants of the old regime, which includes the toughest and bravest segment of Iranian society (most Iran-Iraq veterans), and others who fall somewhere in between — and ethnic nationalist groups stirred up by the chaos. It would be a mess as anyone with any kind of military knowledge will tell you. I do not wish this upon our Iraqi enemies, let alone my own hamvatans.
Shame on those of you who think the Americans will “save us”. They pursue their own interests and their interests is to turn Iran into a neutered, compliant, vassal-state.
If you want American intervention because of Iran's current economic woes, we can solve those ourselves and measures have been taken to address these issues within the confines of the Islamic regime, but oil prices are low, wages are inflated, productivity is low (for cultural and economic reasons) and these cannot be easily solved by the Islamic Republic or a Pro-American regime.
As for political executions, even international human rights organizations admit these number in the low hundreds each year, if even that (I doubt). Most stories people here are fabricated by foreign or subversive intelligence that know Iranian propensity for gossip and have done everything at their disposal in the last 23 years to nudge Iranian popular opinion against the Iranian government.
Don't be naive and fall into their trap. What do you get out of being against the regime in Iran? You live here in America. You're comfortable. Don't tell the people of Iran that they can't handle their own problems and or that they should be slaughtered for their own good in the name of “freedom”. Shame on you.