“Political earthquake” my foot. How sad that we still have naive folks like Ali Ardeshir Jowza [Blessing in doom] and Mark Dankof [What will follow?]who think of the stinking political quagmire in Iran in such simplistic ways.
I was like that too. But during my last visit to Iran a few months ago, I changed my mind for good:
1. The IRI has enough seeyaahee-lashkar and diehard loyalists to last them well into another generation. The hardliners, are not so few and far between as we like to imagine here in the west. The image of a “reform minded majority” is simply a fallacy. The majority are too busy working their asses off bringing bread to the table, and practically, don't give a shit. Especially about secularism and all. Especially even more in the millions of deh-koorehs outside Tehran.
2. The “banned reformists” like those of Khatami's camp, Karrubi, Aref, Nabavi, etc are in reality nothing but ***moderated conservatives*** i.e. non-cleric, often Western-educated conservatives. The ones who had the real guts, like Ghasem Sholeh-Sadi, were kicked out of parliament.
3. The way I see it, Iran will actually benefit if the conservatives win a sweeping round of elections. Let them come to power and totally AND FREELY fuck up the country with their idiotic incompetency. That, will generate a massive upheaval in 10 years that will put them away for good. Much better that way, than have this stupid puppet show continue, fooling the likes of Ali Ardeshir Jowza into thinking that there is a struggle for democracy going on.
4. People continue to underestimate the power of the media (like the omnipotent state broadcaster, IRIB). These masters of propaganda, like their brethren CNN, will “succesfully” LIE mesle sag to invert or twist reality. They can make a disaster look like a success any day. No wonder even the parliament cant mess with these fuckers.
Listening to the IRIB, one routinely gets a daily impression that Iran has become a world power thanx to “Islam e naab e mohammadi” and “Rahbar e Farzaaneh ye enghelaab”, and that the US is on its knees plunging into oblivion. The most potent weapon of the IRI is not the vicious suppression of dissident movements, but the dissemination of disinformation. AND IT WORKS.
5. “Ticking time bomb”, “Boiling point”, “Crisis”, “On the brink of collapse”… What utter twaddle. Wishful thinking at best. This regime will last for a long time. Perhaps even another generation. The mullahs may not be western educated like us, but they sure as hell are smart enough to know how to fool people (inside and outside Iran) to maintain the status quo, at whatever cost. The day I read on BBC News something similar to what happened in Georgia, will I be convinced that people in Iran actually want some real change. People in Iran want both donyaa and aakharat. But as it turns out, they have neither.
6. Don't be surprised if you see one day the conservatives initiating contact with the US as part of their latest ploy to shut up dissidents.
7. It is foolish to think the US can fight the IRI with force. The only way to crack the shell of IRI is by using the same weapon it uses: disinformation (in fact information). If only the regular folk inside Iran knew how shitty, how primitrive, how opportunity-less their country has become. If only they knew the flagrant scope of Iran's backwardness, light years behind the rest of the world. If only they knew what Iran could have become. Too bad the US government has given this crucial job to a bunch of clowns in Los Angeles that don't know jackshit about their job.