Let's assume the up-coming negotiations over Iran's nuclear energy program totally breaks down and nothing is agreed to and everybody goes home angry and fed up. Or, as they say in Texas, “All bets are off.”
And so Condi and Rummy are given orders by Cheney to get the ball rolling on Operation Iran Secularization.
Accusations that Iran is behind attacks against Americans in Iraq escalate, but this time backed up with “solid evidence”: such as photographs, capture of “spies”, video confessions, and communication intercepts.
A Murdoch owned newspaper reports that a platoon of American GI's taking it easy in peaceful northern Iraq, are captured and being held by Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Iran denies it. Kurds suspect Israeli agents are behind the deception.
A daring rescue mission by the Marines manages to bring back one of the platoon members. He gives graphic information about the inhumane torture he had endured over past 48 hours, including having one of his eyes gauged out.
The next day an “Iranian” pilot defects and lands in Baghdad, and it turns out the pilot is accompanied by a high ranking Revolutionary Guard general, and when surrounded by reporters and American Marines, the general declares: “Iran has purchased four nuclear warheads from the Ukraine. And they are fitting them onto their missiles.”
Headlines the next day on all Murdoch newspapers: “Another Holocaust!”, followed the next day with: “Israel and D.C. to be nuked by Iran!”
While the war drums start to beat louder and louder a report comes in that an Iranian missile has just sunk an unarmed merchant ship in the Persian Gulf and all hands on board are reported to have gone down with the vessel. News leaks that it was a hospital ship, and two hundred female nurses and thirty doctors were among the drowned.
Standing amidst grieving family members waiting to receive the flag draped coffins of their loved ones Bush declares Iran's sinking of the hospital ship an act of war and orders an immediate attack on Iran's naval forces in the Persian Gulf.
Iran denies sinking the ship and provides proof in the form of radar reports showing that Iran had not fired any missile or torpedo. The denial is drowned out as corporate media goes into full scale war frenzy. Ignored by the media is evidence that an Israeli submarine was seen in the vicinity.
America launches an attack on all Iranian naval targets and within 72 hours sinks the entire Iranian navy, and half of the missile batteries hidden along the Iranian coastline. During the next 48 hours Iran's entire air force is destroyed and the following 48 hours all Revolutionary Guard buildings, barracks, and factories get leveled.
Bush declares the entire Iranian airspace a no fly zone. All ports are blockaded. Preparations begin for occupation of Khuzestan province and control of Iran's oil and gas industry. America continues to attack anything military related in Iran but avoids oil and gas installations.
And how has Iran responded since the initial attack?
Within the first six hours Iran has cut off all oil shipments out of Iraq. Bombed and disrupted oil outflows from all pipelines heading west from the Caspian Sea, and used short range missiles to stop all oil shipments from Kuwait, plus activated sleeper mines all across the Persian Gulf and the Straights of Hormuz.
During the next 48 hours Iran succeeds in cutting American supply lines from Kuwait, shoots down three aircrafts landing or leaving Baghdad airport with shoulder fired missiles, and rains down missiles onto the Green Zone forcing it to be evacuated.
American causality rates in Iraq reach 300 dead soldiers a day and keep increasing. The American Embassy in Kabul is totally flattened with a massive barrage of anti-tank missiles. Nobody survives the attack.
Using fast speed boats equipped with missiles and torpedoes Revolutionary Guard commando units sink twenty cargo carry vessels and warn that any oil tankers heading for the Straights of Hormuz would be sunk. All shipment of oil out of the Persian Gulf comes to a halt.
In less than a week the supply of oil to the world market drops by 30% to 40%. Gasoline prices double as governments scramble to implement rationing. Speed limits are introduced as blackouts become common. Governments in Europe, Japan, and China order industries to open only three days a week. Price of oil passes $250 per barrel.
Operation Iran Secularization escalates as Iran refuses to surrender unconditionally and America continues to bomb Iran, taking out its dams, power stations, water treatment plants, industrial estates, communication systems, and any military targets still left standing. No oil or gas installations are bombed.
Iranian-Americans living in the United States are rounded up and placed in detention camps, recently built by Halliburton. China and Russia begin to send large shipments of armaments to Iran, including their most sophisticated weapons.
Three weeks after the start of Operation Iran Secularization, with much of Iran devastated, a nuclear power plant in the United States experiences a massive “accident” and four million Americans are exposed to deadly radioactive emissions. In response all nuclear power plants in the United States are shut down and all radioactive material is secured. The next day the Pentagon orders no weaponry with depleted uranium be used in Iran. Massive energy shortages cripple the American economy. The Dow Jones crashes below 4,000 and the dollar loses half its value. Gold reaches above $2,000 an once.
Three months after the start of Operation Iran Secularization the Chinese discretely inform the Pentagon that nuclear tipped missiles have been deployed in Iran. The Bush Administration is forced to resign and the 2008 Presidential elections are moved forward to 2007. The transition administration declares an unconditional ceasefire and begins to withdraw all its forces out of the Middle East, including Iraq.
On the surface America may have been defeated but in reality the objective had been achieved, the destruction of Iran and Iraq, and halting their rise to power in the Middle East.