The problem at the heart of the current controversy over the Iranian nuclear issue is not one of knowledge but of regulation. Believe it or not, at exactly 08:15 local time, August 6, 1945, “Little Boy” opened Pandora’s box of nuclear knowledge and all hell broke loose over Hiroshima. The world woke up to a new technology; steam and internal combustion were old; “fission” and “fusion” were the new buzzwords. The mysterious “unknown” atom had become “known” and engineers everywhere started looking at its potential utility and destructive ability.
Now, some 60 years later, some people think that they can turn back the clock to that pre-Hiroshima era of mystery. It cannot be done. Splitting the atom is common knowledge and everyone with a will or a reason can make use of it. It is impossible to put a lid on the propagation of knowledge, but it is certainly possible to regulate the resulting products and their use.
It takes a very small mind to think that nuclear science is a mystery. Nuclear science is part of the world curriculum and there are hundreds, if not thousands, of people with the know-how to recreate “Little Boy” and its successor “Fat Man”. The issue, therefore, is not pontificating about who should or shouldn’t have the knowledge but rather, creating conditions where these weapons and their derivatives are not required or if they exist, there are means and regulations for their control.
Nuclear power is here to stay. In a pollution sensitive world, it is one of the few sources of power that does not have a carbon footprint, thus nuclear energy is a potential component of the power generation of any country. But nuclear science has a dark side: nuclear weapons. These pose an existentialist threat to all mankind. They are dangerous in anyone’s hands but, threatening countries with annihilation is a sure fire way of encouraging them to build these doomsday machines; it certainly won’t stop them!
So it is imperative to create conditions and regulations where such weapons are not required. Today the nuclear energy regime of the world is unregulated and veiled in secrecy. Countries can be in or out of the IAEA, they can sign or not sign the NPT, they opt in and out of the organizations at will. They can even be members one day and, when convenient, opt out.
Thus current regulations are at best “iffy”, and transparency and enforcement are relegated to admonishments or threats by Western powers. However, threats are dangerous tools; first they have to be believable second they have to be restrictive to the target. A threat to bomb nuclear facility — although believable — is not restrictive. It is a threat to all other countries that do not cater or cave into Western whims. It is a new imperialism that posits “do as I say not as I do” enforced by the fear of nuclear holocaust.
This makes the “enforcer” — not the developer — a general existential threat to all countries, forcing them to develop nuclear weapons, no matter how expensive to assure their continued existence. In short, the current sanctions policy will guarantee illicit weapon proliferation throughout the world instead of preventing it.
Between this whimsical policy of coercion and total chaos, is the IAEA with the objective to “seek to accelerate ….(the) contribution of atomic energy to peace…(and) ensure, so far as it is able, that assistance provided by it …. or under its supervision or control is not used … to further any military purpose.” Thus the mandate of the IAEA is to promote nuclear energy but not nuclear weapons; i.e., nuclear knowledge for peace only. But, as any engineer knows, that is impossible. Nuclear knowledge is indifferent; it can be used for peace or war, just depends on the goals of the country.
A new vision is required; one that sees the world for what it is, not some virtual never land. Nuclear weapon proliferation is dangerous; but wishing it away or seeking to destroy everyone — not to the West’s liking — is no solution.
So what shall be done? Instead of nations posturing and threatening, it is time to revisit the IAEA and the rather ridiculous and toothless NPT. It is time reorganize the IAEA (or similar institution) and give it the explicit mission; authority and enforcement capability to search out and control any weaponized nuclear material.
It is time to establish a regime where every single ounce of refined nuclear material is controlled. This material should be inventoried under the auspices of an authorized and capable international body, a body that has the power to enforce and, if necessary, impound or remove any nuclear material should it suspect deviation from its protocols. It is imperative, for the continued existence of all mankind, to account for every single ounce of nuclear material and every single nuclear weapon and its whereabouts.
This may contradict the concept of the sanctity of the national state but, with Pandora’s box open and nuclear knowledge everywhere, the alternative is everlasting war or marking most of the world – hic sunt dracones.
