All indications are that Bush has given a green light to an attack on the training camps in Iran that are operated by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.
For the past several weeks the Pentagon has rolled out a justification for the upcoming attack through allegations that have yet to be supported by any solid evidence.
Let’s skip over the issue of if the Pentagon is right or if all this is just another case of aluminum tubes or yellowcake or being 45 minutes away from witnessing a mushroom cloud over some American city. Let’s instead jump to the immediate moment after the camps have been bombed.
The question is; how will Iran respond?
The options at Iran’s disposal are many. They range from firing Sunburn missiles at the American aircraft carries in the Persian Gulf to sending a massive volley of missiles into the Green Zone.
How Iran retaliates will most likely escalate into a more punishing response from the United States and this will cause another forceful retaliation from Iran, with the end result being full scale war.
One possible response to the camps being bombed, and which may not trigger an escalating response from the Americans, is that Iran cuts off fuel supplies to the American military without the loss of any life. Without fuel the American war machine in Iraq will come to a grinding halt and will quickly become a sitting duck.
The American military uses more oil than the nation of Sweden and any disruption in supplies will create vulnerabilities that will be a nightmare for Pentagon logisticians.
If American war planners think Iran will not respond to the camps being bombed they are mistaken. Most likely the Pentagon will wait to see how Iran responds and will calibrate its response to how Iran reacts. Fortunately Ahmadinejad is not Iran’s commander in chief.
If only there was a fast forward button and tomorrow was the last day Bush was President, and McCain did not get elected, and Ahmadinejad did not get a second term, and somebody invented a gadget that made so much energy that oil became worthless. In the meantime I think I’ll go practice “Duck and Cover” and stay as far as away from any and all training camps.
