Very few, if any analysts and so-called ‘experts’ foresaw the extent of the insurgency against the occupation forces that would develop in Iraq, the number of civilian deaths and casualties, the instability and weakness of the central government, sectarian bloodletting, empowerment of Iran and all the many other devastating repercussions which have enveloped Iraq and Iraqi civilians since the US-led invasion of 2003. Ehteshami here, provides a basic outline of what to expect in the advent of an American strike against Iranian targets. Those who prefer military solutions in lieu of diplomatic ones should above all take note, and try and imbibe this vital information.
“Among the more predictable results of war are that it will:
· free Iran from the requirement to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
· set back the prospects of democracy in Iran by a generation or more
· strengthen the grip of the neo-conservatives on the levers of power
· deepen Iran’s engagement with radical Islamist forces in the region
· force Tehran to increase its military expenditure and security commitments (currently no more than $5 billion a year, a fraction of its neighbours’)
· accelerate Iran’s nuclear and other military-related WMD programmes.
The outcomes will go beyond the confines of the region itself. The spike in hydrocarbon prices that will follow an attack, coupled with possible disruptions in the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf, could destabilise the international economy and spell disaster for the energy-hungry powerhouses of Asia, which today collectively act as a manufacturing facility for the entire planet.
In short, no good can come of igniting yet another fire in the strategically important Persian Gulf sub-region. It must, rather, be acknowledged that Iran’s nuclear programme is more a symptom than a cause of the many deep-rooted problems of the middle-east region (and of its tense relations with the United States). The resolution of the crisis must be part of a wider initiative to cap the other burning fires of the area, and part of direct talks between Tehran and Washington. Iranian belligerence is being sustained by these other crises and not the other way around.”
There is more than enough potential for unmitigated disaster and Bush administration officials and their neoconservative allies and associates seem to care little, in fact they welcome it… “We kill a few people, that always happens…” – Presenter of MSNBC’s Hardball
