In a few months Iran will hold presidential elections, which most likely will result in Ahmadinejad remaining as president. This will not be due to an expression of what the majority of Iranians want but due to the fact that there still remains a slight chance that Iran will be attacked.
After America invaded Iraq preparations were made within the Iranian power structure for war, and this included installing Revolutionary Guard hardliners throughout government organizations, with Ahmadinejad being the most visible.
Essentially a shadow military junta has been created so as to back up the theocracy in the event Iran has to go on a war footing.
However, given that the threat of an attack has greatly diminished over the past eight months this shadow government has not only become obsolete but has become an impediment given its inherent incompetence and dysfunctional nature.
Regrettably when power has been tasted it is very hard to give up which means the shadow of the military will continue to fall on Iran for some time to come.
Another danger is that when military men are in power they view the world in terms of military conflict, which means human rights, democratic governance, and peaceful co-existence are given lower priority.
At the moment most Iranians want change but have not yet figured out a way to create change as all the normal strategies have been blocked. Street protests, publications, and hunger strikes have proven to be ineffective.
Maybe with subsidies being lifted, and the likely economic protests, change can take place, but this is unlikely as the roots of the problem are not economic but the interpretation of Islam.
The day that Iranians are willing to die for freedom, democracy, and the separation of state and mosque is the day when change will take place given that the other side has whole armies brainwashed into worshiping martyrdom.
So until the day thinking Iranians find an effective way to enlighten the millions of confused and blinkered Iran will remain in the dark ages.
