As the new administration embarks on imprinting it’s own mark on US foreign policy, teams of experts once again descend upon Washington. Each member eager to convince not only the new leaders but their counterparts as well, hoping for “the juice” that inevitably follows.
So eager are they to win the popular theory contest, that they all too easily forget to deconstruct the very problems and mysteries that they have been called upon to solve.
The 2 biggest? Namely, Iran and Afghanistan, or depending on the news of that week, Afghanistan and Iran.
These 2 seemingly obvious countries have managed to somehow dumbfound virtually every single administration since Kennedy, baffling the most astute foreign policy advisers in their wake, and worst of all remaining utterly mis-understood to the people of the US and the world.
This can be largely be blamed on the misogyny of the UN and the almost racist policy of culturalism that the elites running the UN seem to be bent on preserving, always in developing countries. You don’t see Un efforts to preserve rich heritage of Swiss cheesemaking.
The UN approaches almost every 3rd world problem with the intent on keeping the “rich heritage and customs” of that poor country intact. Refusing to allow countries to breathe and civilize themselves to the 20th century standard afforded the least of Europeans.
One can say the UN does not really believe in evolution. At least where the 3rd world is concerned.
Afghanistan
The simplest explanation of the singularly biggest problem in Afghanistan? One word, Tribalism.
Afghanistan today is an almost perfect clone of the Shogun war lord system of regional governance through localized wars between loyal Samurai in the latter part of the 19th century. Since this is America and it is assumed you don’t have time to read, and prefer to learn your history visually, with beefcake whenever possible, you can watch the movie with Tom Cruise “The Last Samurai”.
This artistically unappreciated film, perfectly if metaphorically illustrates several realities inside Afghanistan. First that the rural countryside in Afghanistan is still largely rural, beautiful and rugged. Second, that in spite of the tide of civilization moving against them, that sad warlords cannot seem to agree that their time has come and gone.
The Afghan warlords are made up of long standing families of tribes. The intricate 16th century traditional system of Lords, Barons, and Counts managing tribal homelands, guarded and protected by 21st century weaponry is a perfect description of how Afghanistan works. Or to be honest, doesn’t.
Where does Hamid Karzai fit into all of this? Given he has little or no traditional standing or rank within this feudal Shogun-esque system, he is possibly the biggest unfunny joke ever told in Afghanistan. Yet one more with the poor unsuspecting US as the foil and butt of it. We have in a sense, put Goober in charge of Mayberry.
The obvious destruction of the unwritten system and authority of Afghan tribal warlordship, an impossible task at best, is the precise solution that must be employed if Afghanistan is to civilize. Itself. On it’s own. As the Iranian Nobel Laureate Shirin Ebadi so succinctly put it, “Democracy cannot be exported, it can only be imported.”
The UN has repeatedly prevented this by supporting the system of Tribal governance and the US has been unsuccessful in it’s attempts at mistakenly working within some of the tribes, which only shuns the others, pushing them towards the Taliban or worse, Al Qaeda.
The Taliban are relatively simple to understand too. They are merely (slightly more) hardcore Amish. If the Amish ever decided to learn how to shoot AK-47s and Rocket-propelled grenades.
Al Qaeda? even simpler. They are virtually ideologically identical to a Neo Nazi KKK group still operating in the deep south. Except instead of Hitler being dead, he’s alive in the embodiment of OBL, and everyone on the team all think that he didn’t “finish the job” with 911.
The Solution?
Simple and difficult at once. Simple in that if the root cause of Afghanistan modernizing is the grip the tribes have, then de-installing them from power is the obvious task at hand. Replacing them with the rule of law even more common sense. Doing it without a fight, just about impossible. Just as it was impossible in 19th century Japan. But it was eventually done, Tome Cruise notwithstanding. The answer though, is to precisely look at Japan today. Does the average Japanese man still possess the heart of a Samurai? Possibly, but one thing is certain, they have an amazing subway system.
Iran
Having possibly borne the brunt of the most sophisticated and artful of US destabilization efforts, Iran has learned too well, not to trust anything the US says, does, promises, or looks like. Iran has managed to paint and rebrand the US, as the Devil incarnate, or Great Satan within the 3rd world. Illustrating numerous inarguable examples of this on projected powerpoint, throughout the poorer non-emir-related parts of the Eslamic world. with much success. Because it happens to be utterly and entirely true. Or at the very least, inarguable.
The US has for decades, no, now actually longer than half a century, striven obsessively to destabilize Iran by first swindling the British out of the oil concession they had, then instating a puppet dictator, the Shah, and indulging his many fetishes, perversions, and delusions of grandeur, with the sale of Iran’s own oil.
So voraciously consumed with dining on the Iranian carcass, one that funny enough refuses to die, the US did not once even pause to blink before undoing the only move towards true democracy Iran made in 1953. In 2500 years of civilization, the first attempted shift from monarchy to, not a middle-eastern variation of democracy mind you, but an outright clone of the US Grade “A” Jeffersonian model, as espoused by Iran’s freely elected Prime Minister, Mossadegh. 1951’s Time Magazine “Man of the Year”. Back when that inoculation meant something good.
The length of the hostage crisis that started in 1979, those 333 days, could have been averted entirely, had the US merely admitted to the obvious, apologized for 1953 then and on the spot, and pledged to try harder to be fair with Iran in future, in the hostage negotiations. Instead, the US team of inadvisable advisors advised yet more John Wayning, puzzlingly on the heels of the even more unexplainable folly in Viet Nam. By then the US and it’s unclear Master/Slave relationship with Israel pretty much prevented any chance of being taken seriously. And so, Iran entrenched itself, and began to explore and experiment with it’s new found Grand Experiment. To come up with another export other than oil. And so, without boring you with all the details since, here we are.
The Solution?
Simple and difficult, once again. You didn’t think it was going to be easy did you? Iran’s primary power comes from ironically enough, it’s Constitution. The occasional murmurings that one possible solution is to de-stabilize Iran by supporting Iran’s opposition that emanate from some of our more cutely adorable congressmen, only indicates the high level of ignorance that infects any common sense that might still exist in Washington today.
Simply put, there is no opposition in Iran. The Constitution makes it felony-illegal-treason to oppose the Constitution. No, really. Not only do few anywhere near US foreign policy not know what Iran’s Constitution actually defines, worse, many do not know of the “Great Amendment” made to it in 1989 by the current ruling elite, shortly, very shortly, almost right after Khomeini died. But not too soon after.
The Great Amendment in Iran’s current Constitution, is a poison pill of sorts. Simply, It makes it illegal to amend the Constitution. Effectively and permanently this quiet coup and perfect poison pill, ironically opposed by Khomeini in numerous speeches before he was put on permanent “Bed-Rest”, locked in place and made illegal, ANY attempt to change Iran’s Constitution. In effect, it created the perception of a system that included voting for elected officials, but dis-empowers those elected officials with a permanent guardian council, ruled by an unelected Supreme Leader (No really! They actually call him that!) ) that oversees every election campaign, candidate approval, and ultimately the results. No surprise that the former valet of Ayatollah Khameh-neh-i, the Supreme Leader (CEO of the Guardian Council), Ahmadinejad, magically defeated the wily Rafsanjani to become Iran’s current President. Correction, officially authorized President of Iran. No one knows for sure how the election really went. Mostly voters in Iran put unmarked ballots in the ballot box, just to get the coveted, “I voted” stamp in their passports, so they can avoid interrogations, unwarranted arrest, and do things like buy food, or possibly leave Iran, should the slightest opportunity afford itself.
If by now you are thinking, “So where’s the solution?”, you are getting the point. There pretty much isn’t one. If the US interferes in Iran militarily, the added 3rd front could spell almost certain disaster for an overstretched and exhausted US military. Israel’s air force at best, could delay Iran’s nuclear ambitions by a few months or years, in the process igniting another regional war. A really big one this time.
The only real approach seems to be routine and regular engagement with Iran, using greater skill than the Iranians are using against the US today. By pointing the scope of scrutiny back onto Iran and exposing it’s Constitutional flaws to the Iranian people and the world. Comparing normal real democratic constitutions to Iran’s would be very embarrassing to those in power inside Iran. Official legal credibility and authority is their only lock on power. Question that and you begin to work on the chink in their armor. Their pride. For although you can remove Persia and change the name of the country to Iran, you cannot it seems, take the Persian Pride out of an Iranian.
Other areas of weakness that the US can expose, are Iran’s ongoing policies concerning women. The concerted de-empowerment of women by ruthlessly sexist laws and procedures and regulations to specifically target any attempt by women to achieve equality or independence, is nothing short of the kennel-ization of the perceived as weaker sex. So brilliantly implemented and institutionalized is this de-humanizing scheme, that it has managed to reduce women in Iran to literally an “unheard class”. Men in Iran have been actually conditioned to simply not hear or listen to women. All they hear is the (growing) shrieking sound they are making.
By actually visiting Iran for example and a change, Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton could embarrass Iran by simply putting out her hand. For it is ridiculously forbidden, for Ahmadinejad, to shake the hand of a woman. This obvious photo and TV op, shown to Iranians and the world alike, accompanied by the likely wisecrack headline by Hillary, something like, “Come on! We [women] don’t bite!” and then wink at the camera and finish with “…Hard!”, would throw the entire Iranian establishment into a fumbling panic, at a total loss for a response. The perceived emasculation of the very cadre espousing superiority, being proven wrong for all to see, would be the beginning of the destabilization of the power of the Iranian-Shiite Papacy. For that is what you have in Iran today. The Shiite version of the Vatican. If priests and monks ran the military, banks, auto industry, and telecommunications of the country.
While this may appear like yet more destabilization on the part of the US, and some of you may ask, “So, where’s the reform of US foreign policy?”, the truth is that precisely because we are here today, largely as a result of bad foreign policy based on unstable regime-building, somewhat underhanded tactics are nevertheless required to right the wrongs unfortunately caused by the US, in the past.
For lack of a better solution, the US is going to have to continue to be a bit bad, or at the very minimum employ a visible lack of etiquette, until all the knots of it’s past foibles are fully untied, and neat and clean. What used to be called Dignity and Honor.
