While I am intrigued and excited about all of these uprisings and generation of hope in the hearts of Iranians, I would like to caution people not to get themselves overly excited to a point where they would get emotionally hurt when this shaken soda pop bottle loses its fizz and the people of Iran find themselves facing a more united Mullah front.
Those people who think this could amount to complete regime change and the end of Theocratic Oligarchy are overlooking a crucial point here.This incident, believe it or not is not a struggle between people and the regime like the one in the late 70’s. Nor is it a struggle between opposition and the regime like the one between Mojahedin and the regime back in the early 1980s.
What is happening today is a struggle between two factions of the regime: jenaahe Akbar va jenaahe Rahbar, with middle class and young Iranians on the side of Akbar and the poor and rural folks on the side of Rahbar. The regime’s response to demonstrators has been measured and tolerant, not because basij and pasdaran are incapable of killing a large number of their countrymen. They certainly showed their brutality capacity in the 80s by killing 100s of thousands of mostly young people. The response is measured because both gangs are very powerful. An all out attack on Akbar could escalate into a regime-ending civil war. Akbar has many supporters, sympathizers, and moles among the pasdaran troops, basij organization and even Plain Cloths Militia gangs known as lebaas-shakhsihaa.In my opinion, this whole thing after all the excitement will only amount to some sort of settlement between the two mullah factions and the average Iranian people will end up holding the bag again.
