The Islamic Republic core competency had been their ability to diffuse public anger through correct channels and create hope for a better system by reform. They were able to do so similarly to many developed countries by using their controlled media. During Khatami’s presidency, many newspapers began publication by criticizing the flaws of the system while promoting the ideologies of the Islamic Republic. The Khatami experience should have been a lesson to the system that the Iranian people are ready for democracy and civil society that is based on the rule of law. Unfortunate for the Islamic Republic, many powerful figures did not understand the importance of reform, which in fact is the keynote in securing the Islamic Republic from any possible threats, internally or externally.
The backwardness of the conservative camp did not understand the logic behind the concept that with more relaxed laws the system would be more secure and the stability would result in a positive outcome for all sides. They began to close down many of the steam valves such as reformist newspapers. The system had cracked for the first time and the power started to shift to conservative corner yet the hope for reform was not stopped but rather became stronger.
The growing divide resulted to the recent election outburst. The people witnessed the powerless clergies against the unelected part of the system. The hope for reform was shattered in front of the eyes of the reformists and desperate voices changed to anger and frustration on the city streets.
The greatest flaw of the Islamic Republic has been its intrusive nature towards the citizen’s private life and behavior. People wanted to fix their governing body by bringing the most advance ideological figures that the system could offer to the front line of their battleground where the dilemma of modernity verses religion and traditions resided. The Islamic Republic showed its true face by bringing Basiji hooligans to beat and humiliate the most productive, passionate, and educated portion of the Iranian society. The solution would have been simple if there was no political coup in process.
Many guessed that the system would make a deal with the reformists and seal the security of the regime. Expectation was that Mr. Mousavi would come on TV and ask for public unity and peace. Yet Mr. Mousavi and his camp were not able to approach the Sepah and arrive to a conclusive assurance that the system is willing to share its power. The ones, who were part of the problem, now became the hope and solution. One of such people was Mr. Rafsanjani.
In his recent Friday sermon, Mr. Rafsanjani clarified his dissatisfaction with the current path of the regime. His mistake was the advice verses the demand tone. This strategy was based on careful calculation to secure his position of power and leaving the fight for the people. Mr. Rafsanjani, who is one of the most powerful figures in the Islamic Republic establishment, could have assured the citizens that he would fight for the people’s Rights and would not sit quiet until all the demands of the reformists are met. Once people heard that the system is trying to fix itself, they would quiet down and allow the governing channels to fight themselves into a possible solution. On the contrary, Mr. Rafsanjani’s speech assured the reformists that he is another powerless clergy among the rest who are fighting to regain their power within the system. The Islamic Republic as we always knew it does not exist and the pieces are changing fast.
If the system continues on its current path of humiliating the free minded and modern citizens, then the possibilities of a more open, less intrusive and democratic Iran will instead give room to a more invasive, dictatorial and heavily censored media. This would be a natural path since the government would not be able to answer a large portion of its society’s demands. Naturally, the underground press, anti system organizations and oppositions would blossom. One would expect the end of the system in the long run. The mistake that the Islamic Republic’s Sepah has done is the miscalculation that did not consider the people factor. If they do not change their behavior, which is very likely, then their end is around the corner as the reformists have warned (eversince Khatami’s presidency).
At this stage the issue is far beyond what the Islamic Republic could offer as an alternative and the people are uniting day by day for the goal of achieving the Iranian dream of freedom, independence and democracy.
