As a former U.S. national security official, I have been straining — along with many fellow Americans — to understand the Iranian nuclear puzzle. What is really going on with Iran? While it is difficult to know exactly what or whom to believe, we can try to connect the dots of recent news reports and put forth several hypotheses.
1. The Pittsburgh Gambit. President Obama’s press conference with French President Nicolas Sarkozy and British Prime Minister Gordon Brown at the G-20 summit raised the stakes by revealing a new enrichment facility at Qum and then calling for tougher sanctions if Iran still fails to abide by its obligations under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
This was a rhetorical shift for Mr. Obama, who has been experimenting with unconditional engagement. To be sure, he has also been talking about a mix of “bigger sticks and bigger carrots.”
