The Islamic Republic is taking a wrong path. They are becoming more centralized in power, which is good news for the revolutionary minded people and bad news for the reformists. For a few months now I am holding a theory that Iran is headed towards a absolute dictatorial state with no hope of turning back. To do so they have alienated some of the population to a point that for the first time in Islamic Republic history, demonstrations will not be an easy task for the system to control. And as many are aware, demonstrations happen regularly in Iran. Based on my theory, this will also end gradually as the system distances itself from the population in order to rule with an iron fist.
Some might argue that the system had always behaved as such and the recent events are nothing new or unexpected. There is a lot of room for argument there, as the major figures within the system had turned their political views toward the demands of different classes within the Iranian society. For time being let’s stay focused on the topic of the future of the Islamic Republic and the challenges they will face.
A year ago I would argue that it is the US that will not have relations with Iran and not the other way around. The logic is simple, Iranian system with all its internal flaws was challenging the Western governments and perhaps providing a possible home grown ideological option for the future of the dictatorial and politically dependent Middle Eastern countries. To what extent this idea holds true, we will not know for some time, however the actions of the Western nations and particularly the United States could be an indicator that the Islamic Republic was more than just a dictatorial system that the US disagreed with. We come back to this later.
As mentioned at the beginning, the current developments in Iran should be good news for the revolutionary minded people. The logic behind this statement drives from centralization of the Iranian regime. Once a system becomes centralized the absolute power and enemy (of the people) becomes clearly known. The Islamic Republic had originally confused the entire world about its system and the center of power. The US intelligence until recently was unclear whether the true power of the government is in the hand of Khamenei, or Khamenei is working for a bigger boss. Perhaps even today the answer is not fully clear since up to this point the absolute change of centralization of the system has not taken full shape. As time progresses this puzzle will show its identity. Once the enemy is known the society will figure how to best fight him. In this case the reformists would join the movement, since they have been cut off as an option in that system.
The Green movement was not a revolutionary or reformist movement. Arguably, the term “movement” is not an ideal phrase to describe the after election events. A political movement has clear goals and develops leadership that can carry on those objectives. The events in Iran are well beyond Mr. Mousavi or Karubi and I would argue that they would not want to see where the Green could actually take them. They will become irrelevant if the Green does form a political movement. How can a political movement be formed?
Firstly a movement needs to provide support to answer demands for the working class. It needs to have direction and clearly define the most important value (end of the line) they want to represent. Most importantly, a movement should map the actions necessary to unite the opposition forces towards victory. And victory, of course, needs to be defined. These conditions are not met at this point.
There is no need to forcefully create a movement. Similar to language developments and social trends, a movement will shape itself, naturally.
Back to the Iran-US relations. Since Iran, similar to all the neighboring dictatorial states, will need military, intelligence (savak like), and controlled information, they will form a system that is less reliant on its population support. Better relations with the West will fulfill the lack of internal security. The US can now offer security and support as it has for Iran’s neighbors. And the Islamic Republic will take it. The US change of behavior is only because Iran is not a political/social and influential option/player for the rest of the region (anymore). The Iranian status is now downgraded to just a dictatorial state. That has never threatened any regimes in the West. Makes sense for the West and the world to work closely with Iran and offer their support. All the speeches of the conservative Mullahs against the West and the US will diminish by time, shorter than we might think.
Interesting to note, that unlike what most people around the globe think, the West and the US are not concerned with a dictatorial system but their benefits alone, naturally. When Iran had a chance to develop into a homegrown democracy, the world demonized them, and now the world seem to gradually taking a softer position in regards to Iran! Yet Iran is more militarized, less democratic and for the people in Iran things have gotten worse. Therefore, don’t rely on anyone but Iranians for the future change.
For now, welcome to new Iran. Yet another failed movement (1979) and defeat for the people of Iran; but the spark of green will be a revolution that no one yet knows its direction within the coming decades.
