(Whether or not anyone there reads this, I sent a copy of the following in the “letters” section at the Supreme Leader’s website–not the first time I’ve done so with analysis or news items. I point this out so you’ll understand why my post begins as it does).
Updates for the Supreme Leader: You may hate the opposition how your own actions assure its continued growth.
Latest rumor: IS THE REGIME PLANS TO ASSASSINATE KARROUBI
According to the rumor, other top leaders may be targeted as well. The opposition would be blamed even if that makes no sense. People find such a rumor believable for five reasons:
1. Known regime tactic: Regime death squads have assassinated reformers in the past.
2. Another familiar tactic: The regime tried to blame Neda’s death on the opposition and declare her a “regime martyr.”
3. On November 4th Karoubbi was publicly assaulted for the third time–a clear pattern. This time he was actually shot at and knocked to the ground. Two bodyguards were wounded.
4. The regime spread an advance cover story claiming that its “intelligence service” discovered an opposition plot to kill an opposition leader and “frame” the regime.
5. Having seen so much crimes (need I elaborate?) people believe it will commit any crime at this point to hold onto power.
As observers have noted, what makes the opposition so hard to repress is that it is a grass roots movement in which Karroubi and Moussawi especially have become followers rather than leaders. In the first week after the rigged election, most of the opposition might have been satisfied with new elections provided bullet proof safeguards against frauds were included. A public radicalized by the regime’s actions since will no longer settle for that.
–TWO FASCINATING STUDIES OF WHERE IRAN SEEMS HEADED AFTER NOV. 4TH
http://enduringamerica.com/2009/11/05/irans-new-13…
Both come sources inside Iran. The first is from “Mr. Smith” a regular source for Scott Lucas at Enduring America. The second appears in the “Comments” section afterward from “whereismyvote.”
If the regime should find and arrest either source, it will accomplish nothing. Dozens of others will replace them.
Since independent professional journalists and newspapers were shut down, the people by the hundreds have developed journalist skills. Once learned, those skills will remain to expose the regime’s moral bankrupcy.
–NEDA: Childhood photos now online for Iran’s public to see.
http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/11/05/neda.mom…
Already Neda’s photo and her mother’s story have spread widely in Iran. Their impact will increase with an upcoming one-hour documentary on PBS Frontline on November 17th. Everyone wants to see it–not just the opposition. Anyone who can’t watch it directly will have access by one means or another shortly thereafter.
People thirst for all details about Neda. Why? Because Neda now emboies so many things–other victims, the opposition and the entire Iranian people. As hero’s to emulate, how can men like Khamenei, Ahmadinejad, Mpjtaba. Janatti, Taeb, Mesbah Yadzi and Ahmad Khatemi compete with people like Neda and Karoubbi? It’s hopeless.
As if the regime didn’t look bad enough already, it gave Basilj thugs the freeest hand ever on Nov. 4th. Now the Iranian people get to enjoy photos of beaten demonstrators, including women getting clubbed as they rushed to interpose their own bodies between those of beaten demonstrators laying on the ground. The bravery of such people is amazing.
—TEHRAN BUREAU INFORMS IRANIANS ABOUT NEW WAVE OF ARRESTS, HACKING OF HARDLINER WEBSITES
re: those arrests
Such arrests are as futile as censorship and beatings. The regime is so lacking in legitimacy it simply repeats the same old strategies that got it in this hole.
–Hardline websites hacked
The best and the brightest–along with their technological skills–are imcreasingly on the side of the opposition. The greater the repression, the more people are forced to learn such skills. Meanwhile there are so-many low tech ways of doing the same–graffiti, rooftop chants, circulating DVDs–all impossible to stop.
My Question: IS IT POSSIBLE FOR THE REGIME TO FIND A WAY OUT OF A CRISIS IT CREATED?
The hole continues to get bigger despite all censorship, intimidation and violence. Such things just undermine Khamenei further because people use their common sense to reach a logical conclusion–a genuinely popular, respected and legitimate government would have no need to engage in such measures. Doing so amounts to a public confession of wrongdoing something to hide. Anyone can see that this is a regime that fears its own people and knows it has good reasons for such fears. Meanwhile consider how much Khamenei’s smaller crimes–seizing peoples cell phones, computers and satellite–increase popular resentment as much as the big ones. None of these crimes–big or small–could happen without his endorsement and advance approval.
