It will come as a shock to no one who’s opened a newspaper or turned on the TV over the past few years that a lot of Americans and Israelis believe: 1. Iran is ruled by crazy people who hate Israel; 2. Allowing these crazies to get the bomb would pose an existential threat to Israel; 3. Military action is essential if the crazies are to be stopped.
The polls jump around depending on how the question is asked, but a recent Hebrew University poll put Israeli support for bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities at 52%, with 35% against. A recent Pew Research Center poll of Americans found that 61% support military action against Iran if that was the only way to prevent Iran from getting nukes.
Despite this popular support, I seriously doubt (perhaps naively hope would be a better way to put it) that the Obama administration would preemptively bomb. Which leaves Israel. Would they go it alone? A lot of Iran “experts” think so. http://media.hoover.org/documents/VDH-Baer-uk-transcript.pdf As for me, I’m 50.1% certain they won’t.
First, although I have no love for the IRI, and I do think to some extent they’re crazy anti-Semites, they’re not unpredictable. After the disputed election, it seems clearer than ever that their primary goal—above even promoting their questionable interpretation of Twelver Shiism—is maintaining power. Using a nuclear weapon against Israel, or slipping one to Hezbollah for the same purpose, would likely mean the end of their power. So I don’t think they’d do it. After all, Israel could retaliate with their own nukes and destroy 80% or so of the heavily-urbanized Iranian population in a day. My God. The IRI may be crazy, but they’ve given no indication that they’re that crazy. To get that crazy, you have to descend into the Sunni suicide-bomber mindset. (Which is why Pakistan’s existing nukes should be more of a concern than Iran’s theoretical ones.) While I don’t think the majority of Americans appreciate the difference between the IRI and nihilistic Sunni radicals, I have to believe Israeli defense experts do. Or at least I hope they do…
Second, Israel and the US would have to take into account the consequences of such an attack. Some are obvious: innocent lives would be lost, oil prices would spike after the Straight of Hormuz was temporarily blocked, US troops would be attacked in Iraq, Israel would be attacked by Hamas and Hezbollah and likely by Iran directly, etc. But a less-obvious and quantifiable consequence is the extra time an attack would buy the IRI. Most Iranian.com readers know that ninety percent of Iranians support Iran’s nuclear program. And that the Shah supported it in the past, and if they’re ever allowed to govern, the reformists will support it in the future. Which means it ain’t going away no matter who’s in power. It also means that if Israel or anyone else tries to disrupt Iran’s nuclear program militarily, it’s going enrage a lot of people across the political spectrum. When Iranians rally around the flag after an attack, as many will, how many extra years will that give the IRI? Ten? Twenty? Who knows, but I bet the IRI would gain more years from an attack than the few years (at most) the nuclear program would be delayed. Point being, no matter what the Israelis do, there’s going to be a nuclear program in Iran. If need be, deeper bunkers will be dug. And bombing Iran’s nuclear sites, while it could potentially (but not certainly) delay the program, would also likely prolong the period of time that the IRI is in control of it.
I have to believe the Israelis also are aware of all this, despite the bluster. Which is why I doubt that, in the end, they’ll bomb preemptively. They’ll do everything they can to slow down the process and get sanctions applied (which Russia and China won’t support), but stop short of going it alone.
The Israelis have made strategic blunders before, though, and with Netanyahu in charge, they may do so again.
I’d be interested in hearing what other people think and why.
