I fear the worst now that the protests have become more violent. My prediction is that conventional riot control police and Basijis would be replaced by military forces and violence would escalate to the point that the casualties would be hundreds. I suspect that part of this force would break away and stand by the people but that streets of Tehran would become like Lebanon with rattle of machine guns being heard everywhere.
Desperate regimes do very desperate things and this kind of violence could turn to War and genocide. This is because in the absence of a leadership cycles of violence can only escalate and with a brutal regime that we have, given their desperate situation they could only bank on more brutality. They may even initiate war, or start the incarceration of the public in camps in order to turn the current status quo. The Rwandan genocide happened in only a few month, one would hope that Iran with its significant role would never be left ignored as Rwanda was but the idea of foreign troops on our soil is not a desirable option.
We must hope that there would be a general strike and this would be maintained to the point that would cripple the regime, the leadership would escape and their foot soldiers defect.
We outside Iran have a role to play. We must maintain a constant presence and as well as our own Iranian community we must involve those outside our community. Soon we may need a strong lobby to provide Humanitarian aid to people inside Iran.
At least in Europe there should be an organization to represent us in a strong lobby.
