Why the IRI Cannot be Reformed: A Comparative Look

I was reading this piece in Foreign Policy about Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood, and I could not get pass the similarities between its attempts at “reform” in Egypt and what is being advocated as the best approach of ridding Iran of the IRI dictatorship.  First, let’s make one thing clear: I am no fan of the Muslim Brotherhood or any other nutty, Islamist suicide cult and do not wish them success in anything.  But as the piece suggests, the Brotherhood gave up its violent tactics-at least for the most parts—in the 1970’s and 1980’s and tries to win over supporters, and change Egypt’s dictatorial system, through political means, in other words, by “reforming” it.  As the piece suggests, that effort has failed.  In fact, after almost three decades of Brotherhood’s attempts at ‘reform from within” the Mubarak government has now decided to even ban the Brotherhood from running in the elections for the upper house of Egypt’s parliament. 

The reason for this failure is simple.  One cannot “reform” dictatorships.  Dictatorships, by definition, are one man (or one group as in the IRI) rule.  They set the rules and the laws.  One has to play by their rules, and those rules are set up to keep the dictatorship in power. 

The same dynamic is in play in Iran.  Just like Mubarak’s Egypt, the IRI, as a dictatorship, sets its rules.  It has various mechanisms in place to prevent “reform” from happening.  On one level, it can disqualify candidates from running in elections, on another level, it can intimidate them, and on the next level, if all fails, it can reject anything they pass with the “Guardian Council” and / or Velayat-e Faghih’s absolute veto power.  That is why there is absolutely no chance of any significant “reform” in Iran while the IRI is in power.

Moreover, as the events of the last year have shown, attempts at “reform” can be crushed in a dictatorship at the whim of the dictator, setting back the efforts significantly, and essentially sending it back to “square one”. Egypt’s recent attempt at blocking the Brotherhood from the upper house of parliament is another example of this phenomenon.

For a “reform” movement to be successful, there must be democratic mechanisms in place where the “reformists” can have a fair shake in changing policy and laws through a neutral system with neutral overseers and checks and balances.  No such system exists in today’s Iran, and that is why “reforming the IRI’ is more of a wish list and naïve fantasy than anything else.  In fact, I would go even one step further and call it a ploy by the IRI to send those in hope of reform in search of the proverbial “nokhod siah”.

IRI, as a gun toting dictatorship that it is, will never be reformed.  The IRI mafia is intoxicated with power and money and it will be laughable to think that the IRGC will simply allow a bunch of pro-democracy 20-somethings reform the system in a way that will take power away from them and those who feed them.  If there was any chance for reforming the IRI, we would have seen it by now.  Thirty one years on, and the IRI is just as brutal as ever.  It still tortures, rapes, jails and hangs opponents.  Even the lack of the most basic of social freedoms, such as the right to choosing one’s attire, is still as it was thirty one years ago.

Unfortunately, by its nature, the IRI has only left the Iranian people with two options.  The first option is a violent revolution and the second one is some kind of a military coup from within its own apparatus by a group of IRGC officers who may become disenchanted with what they see of the regime (highly unlikely).  Other than that, the IRI will remain as it has always been: a petty, brutal and oppressive dictatorship.

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