Weeks leading to June 12, 2010 did not seem to bear any significant news or expectations. islamic regime had gotten lucky with distractions from the Iranian uprising. The flotilla incident and then UN resolution on nuclear issue. Kyrgyz clashes were also helpful. Over the past year the regime has, in its own estimate and propaganda, successfully suppressed and choked the movement.
But the real event continues to be within the movement that despite the appearances firmly has the upper hand. In spite of side shows, the most significant sign of what is truly happening was the Mousavi/Kahroubi call for people to stay home. The explanation made sense on the surface; ‘That regime is ready and wanting to forcefully crush protests and risk was too high for people, so timing is not good’.
Anniversary of people’s uprising is not good food to do uprising. Very interesting.
That un-invite to protest is telling of a tipping point of revolutionary proportions; but not not as M/K duo presented it. From day 1 people’s organic demand seeded by regime’s attempt at an election show, was represented by Mousavi, not him creating or leading a movement. To that extend he was the leader of the movement as long he reflected the wishes of the movement. Even Mousavi’s progressively stronger positions and implying the islamic constitution was ‘changeable’ indicated as much but he keeps repeating khomeini & holy islamic constitution. Greatness was bestowed upon him by the Iranian people, but he lacks the composition or strength for it. Maybe, just maybe, he understands as much and is helping the movement with knowledge of his own limitations, and regime’s Redline. If true, that in itself is a form of service. That may also be true of Kahroubi who stated as much yesterday: ‘future is in the hands of Iranian people’.
The statement telling people to stay home on the anniversary was an unmistakable signal that the regime’s very existence, and hence that of Mousavi/Kahroubi is at stake, as they are a subset of the islamic regime & constitution. This risk of demise was stated by regime’s own statements and implicit understanding and agreement of Mousavi/Kahroubi that yesterday could have been the end of islamic republic. As much had been unambiguously stated after Ashoora protests by Sepah leaders: ‘had the 5 key protest crowds managed to join, Tehran would have fallen’. The regime realized that with the right spark their tanks and guns will be useless except to kill a few more, if people’s anger hits its stride.
People inside and outside of Iran came out anyway. Not as massively as Ashoora but they came out more widespread and united. Remember, Ashoora protests, the largest and most potent so far, were not called for by Mousavi/Kahroubi. It was the dynamic of movement itself as was yesterday. On Ashoora, the anger and frustration of the people started to show in the form of fighting back not the preachings of Mousavi/Kahroubi.
‘had the 5 key protest crowds managed to join, Tehran would have fallen’. The uninviting of the protesters was not out of concern for the people but for the totality of the regime. Yesterday crystalized Mousavi/Kahroubi’s symbiotic interdependence, and the tipping point, with the very regime they supposedly oppose.
The movement has taken notice and will shift accordingly.
