As the stalemate between the US and Iran intensifies, choosing your weapon seems inevitable.
As Iranians here and back home, we face a great dilemma. We are (almost) all against the US opening yet another war front and attacking Iran. Yet we are also against Iran’s obsession with getting a nuclear weapon. We just don’t want ANY war or even the threat of it, at ALL.
But you can’t have your (Yellow) cake and eat it too.
The problem is, what we want is unlikely. The US is about )( this far from exhausting it’s patience, as well as the “legal” route, and as the UN sanctions continue to mount against an increasingly ambivalent and insolent Iran, as was predicted, by just about everyone, sanctions don’t work. Iran is on track, and has actually accelerated it’s quest, in an apparent mad dash toward what it perceives as a more secure bargaining position once it can claim a successful Nuclear detonation. Summer is always a good time for fun in the sun. For an ideal testing ground, pick a Kavir, any Kavir.
Everyone, but everyone is afraid of this. And rightly so. Especially Israel has been pouring on the Gold Bond on an increasingly itchy trigger finger. It is uncertain that the past saber rattling by the likes of Rafsanjani, who are on record saying that if Iran had a nuke, Israel most certainly has it coming, are really just rattlings or something far more serious.
Recent actions by Israel with the bungled boarding of the Turkish humanitarian supply ship, certainly have tested Iran’s growing impatience. And if history is any lesson, Iran is itching for a fight of sorts too. Not because it cares about Palestinians, but after the post election Green protests and close-call that luckily for the regime, turned out to be nothing, it needs a pre-occupation to pose to the Iranian people with which to keep them in line, fearful and grateful to the government. What better way then a fake nationalism-inducing war. With the isolation it has now brought upon itself, Iran has a very reasonable need to possibly want to start a war. If it could only find someone willing to attack it. Being a gambler at heart, Iran might also see this timing as ripe to bluff, when the US is fully if not over extended in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The handful of legitimate dissidents, with the self-published CNN pundits, YouTube channel hosts, private members-only foreign policy clubs, as well as the average “Joe-Jahanshah”-Iranian on the street, ALL have opined that war with Iran will cause horrific civilian death inside Iran. The regime dangling the unrealistic lure that if attacked ALL Iranians would rise up against the US, hoping that someone actually believes that.
But another very real option is none of this.
In fact the US could very simply give Iran 24 hours notice that it will take out the facilities in question, and for Iranian authorities to get everyone out of the way. Then continue by telling Iran (and the world) that the US will monitor the activities via satellite surveillance, and if it notices anything funny, launch the attack immediately. Then run a Mickey Mouse watch animated countdown clock across the everymedia, YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, even buy time on all Iranian Satellite TV (including and especially Tapesh), and let the whole world watch what happens next LIVE. At the 12 hour mark, send another notice. Then at 6 hours, then every hour. If the government calls it a US bluff and doesn’t move the people out of the way, the people will move themselves, and 24 hours is plenty of time to get far enough away. Most reasonable Iranians have likely moved by now anyway. But some will undoubtedly stay and they will regrettably die. Basijis and their gullible if not oppressed-dominated-obligated wives and children might even be specially ordered and shipped in from South Tehran to serve as human shields. And you can count on the fact that they too, will sadly but certainly die. Because the people doing the bombing are the same ones who bombed 100,000 civilians in Tokyo in the middle of the night of March 10, 1945 near but not quite the end of World War II.
It is well known that the US bunker busting weapon du jour is going to be some variation of the B61-11. A ground penetrating bomb that when dropped from high enough, can go as deep as 20 meters through anything it lands on, and then detonate as much as a 100 kiloton nuclear explosion poof!-ing everything as far down as 100 meters, into a fine Johnson & Johnson-esque baby powder. With minimal radiation exposure above ground.
The people of Iran when faced with a US threat that turns into a US promise and worse, results in a US attack, conversely to what the regime claims, might instead of rallying around it, hold their already unpopular government accountable for awakening the wrath of the Americans and risking their lives for nothing more than international posturing. Irregardless of where exactly Israel’s foot happens to be on the throat of the Palestinians that day.
Certainly a US attack like this will do the job to stop Iran’s current centrifugal momentum. Logically, it even makes sense, and must be something that someone somewhere close by the top of both governments has certainly got to be considering as coldly as I just wrote it.
So why are my hands (and my heart) shaking, as I write this infuriating madness?
I think the reason is that although all of this is now a very understandably upsetting still very real possibility, the fact is that it is completely unnecessary. Were Iranians to take responsibility for their government and true destiny for once, instead of constantly being oppressively ruled by self-serving cowards and ill-fated plunder and piracy of Iran, Reason and Sanity could replace Unreasonable Insanity. Hope-filled Prosperity could replace Hopeless Misery, and Potential could replace Pointlessness.
It may very well take a lesson this coming fall quarter, taught by professor Sam teaching us Course#: B61-11 to learn this the hard way. I hear the final exam for this class has just one question on it, the grade is PASS or FAIL, it’s too late to Audit it, and the TA is a very mean Grad School exchange student from Tel-Aviv University.