Act I – I hear pulsating sound of drum beat from not so far distance. I pretend to sleep the remaining hours before dawn. That is when I must be brave and face my enemy on a hand to hand combat. If I must die let it be quick and unexpected. And if I should live, then I thank my creator for the reprieve. For tomorrow is not such a special day.
It is another day of exercise in futility, eliminating my perceived enemy whom I do not know or do not care to know. I am here because of the failure of my king. He was offered a vast tract of bottom land suitable for agriculture, fruit trees, with running water through the land. A village blessed with active people, young and old, children playing hopscotch. Wind mills, horses, sheep, cows, goats, flour milling stones grinding the wheat. Smell of freshly cooked bread waft through the air. It was a heaven, but my king refused it all and chose war instead. I am not here because I want to be; I was brought to service from my beloved far away mountains. I know I am irrelevant to his majesty’s whim. Again, if I should die, so I will with honor, for I know not better and refuse to fight. Now the morning dawn is upon me and the nightmare must end; it is time to go.
The idea of war on Iran makes me sad. But when you square up ignorance verses hegemony, greed and power, with absence of prudent diplomacy many must die. That is where we are, the night before – the nightmare!U.S. preparation for war with Iran has been going on for a long time as a contingency plan in case no agreement can be reached on the over-blown nuclear program. As expressed by Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman of Joint Chief of Staff, in a forum at Columbia University “we in the pentagon, we plan for contingencies all the time and certainly there are options which exist”, reference to dealing militarily with Iran’s nuclear endeavor.
From the weapons point of view, Iran is at the initial stages even with 20% enrichment capability. Not only enrichment should be accomplished at 90%, then fabrication process, detonation mechanism, assembly of various electronics, payload capacity, proper missile, transport and launching system. Iran does not have enough raw-material on its own and cannot import any. All supplies that may have any use for nuclear weapons are under sanction. There is no nuclear technology of any sort headed to Iran. Iran practically must come up with its own parts and re-invent the wheel. The U.S. looked the other way while India and Pakistan built their nuclear weapons with everything available to them by the countries who already own the weapons. It is virtually impossible for Iran to build a nuclear weapon under the present circumstances even if they did not have the inspectors and the cameras which they do. So far no one has presented any evidence that Iran is building a nuclear weapon. We only have the words of the US, European Union and Israel.
The neocons have at their disposal numerous national publications and strong lobbying power in Congress, have been able to advertise and promote once again that hideous WMD concept, demonizing an evil regime who can easily evoke revulsion to the world, and thereby achieving their goal, another war. This last collection of sanctions were part of a plan to nail the Islamic Republic regime with the last chance alibi that “we did all we could”, those stubborn nuclear violators are to blame, It’s not our fault, we cannot allow a Shiite rogue regime to possess a Nuclear weapon. I say what Nuclear Weapon, show us. You are going to war over an imaginary bomb?
As far back as March 2007, US demonstrated its power by bringing in to Persian Gulf two aircraft carriers (USS Dwight D. Eisenhower; USS John C. Stennis); using 100 warplanes to conduct a war maneuver off the coast of Iran. These exercises came just four days after Iran captured 15 British sailors and Marines in Iranian waters. They claim they were in Iraqi waters. At the same time a French aircraft carrier with a strike force operating just outside the Gulf in support of NATO forces in Afghanistan, but not participating. In all US had 10,000 personnel active in simulated attacks on shipping, submarines, and finding mines. US navy Cmdr. Kevin Aandahl said: “What it should be seen as by Iran or anyone else is that it’s for regional stability and security,”… “These ships are just another demonstration of that. If there’s a destabilizing effect, it’s Iran’s behavior”. In the latest, as reported by al-Quds al-Arabi newspaper, June 18; 12 American warships one of which is an aircraft carrier (USS Harry S. Truman), and one Israeli Corvette and perhaps a Submarine, have crossed the Suez Canal, moving through Red Sea to undisclosed location. Two other carriers have been deployed to the region, CVN-73 Washington, in Western Pacific, May 26 and CVN-69 Eisenhower, May 22. This is confirmed from an Israeli website Debkafile that is part of a surge in aircraft activity in Persian Gulf.
For the war with Iran, this time they are going to get it right. A group of old Iraq war hawks are going to start an intensive campaign to win support among general population for war against the Islamic Republic. The drums begin to beat sometime after Labor Day and continue towards the election in November. The theme is to focus on the Obama administration being too soft on Iranian regime, and if they do not stop it now, it’ll be too late then. They are placing a deadline on it so the process does not drag on and on.
Bush’s former National Security Advisor, Stephen Hadley, and Israeli Brig. General Michael Herzog recently wrote a paper that was published by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP) stated “by the first quarter of 2011, we will know whether sanctions are proving effective”…. “The administration should begin to plan now for a course of action should sanctions are deemed ineffective by the first or second quarter of next year. The military option must be kept on the table both as a means of strengthening diplomacy and as a worst-case scenario,” – it should be pointed out, it is a known fact that WINEP is closely tied to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). We have to wonder who is running American foreign policy, The War Hawks or President Obama. Resolution H. Res. 1553 introduced in the House of Representative by Louie Gohmert (R-Tex), is to legitimize an unprovoked attack on Iran, under the pretext of Israel self defense. How can you justify self defense when you are not attacked?
Other Neocons such as Bill Kristol, Reuel Marc Gerecht and Bush administration official John Bolton, are putting the pressure on President Obama to join the war band wagon without regards to adverse consequences for the United States. In my book US interest comes first not Israel’s. At least Hadley and Herzog are willing to wait and see what happens with the sanctions. There are others who cannot wait for fear of being too late to stop the bomb. Former Democratic senator Charles Robb and Retired Gen. Charles Wald wrote in a column for Washington Post “We cannot afford to wait indefinitely to determine the effectiveness of diplomacy and sanctions”… they warned that Tehran “could achieve nuclear weapons capability before the end of this year, posing a strategically untenable threat to the United States”. They continue “If diplomatic and economic pressure does not compel Iran to terminate its nuclear program, the U.S. military has the capability and is prepared to launch an effective, targeted strike on Tehran’s nuclear and military facilities”.
Act II – I am standing here shoulder to shoulder with my comrades whom I met only few months past. I can see the enemy just appearing over the hilltop, dressed in armor, lances and large shields. My heart is pounding, I feel my quivering knees, and my eyes are glazed so bad that I can barely see ten feet in front of me. My mouth is dry, and now there is no time to delve on myself, as the enemy is upon us. Not bad for the initial jolt, I used my training on a quick defensive move, my attacker overshot me and I stuck my sword through his neck; blood spewed all over my face. Now, I could see well and my quickness benefited me in spite of my small stature. I held my own but I saw my comrades go down all around me too fast. The opponent were suited with better armor, had longer lances and bigger shields. In spite of our gallant stand we were outmatched.
Another aspect of strategy is to correct mistakes made at initiation of the Iraq war based on phony intelligence, later to discover there was no rabbit to pull out of the hat. This time if they can, would prefer to provoke Iran to some sort of action to justify defending American forces in face of aggression by the enemy. In addition to petrol and maneuvers up and down the Persian Gulf, forces have been placed all around Iranian land and Gulf region. Iran is surrounded by Pakistan, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkey, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emaret, and Oman. Great majority of these governments are hostile towards the Islamic Republic.
It is no longer secret that Saudi Arabia is collaborating with Israel in event of a strike on Iran. There is a You Tube video based on London Times Magazine report that Israeli Helicopters dropped off equipment at a Saudi base in the northern part. Riyadh has given permission for Israel to use a narrow strip of air space for this purpose. Saudi Arabia has reset their electronic Air Defense System so the Israeli aircrafts will not be shut down. The report is being denied by both parties.It appears that Azerbaijan and Georgia have become another platform for attack on Iran by the US and Israeli Forces. Confirmed by Azerbaijani authorities, saying the forces are here for peace keeping due to armed conflict with rebels.
There are armed conflicts going on all over the world, US does not put forces for such insignificant local conflicts, not even for Kurds and Turkey in such sensitive area. That was a no-sale. Azerbaijani political expert said in view of recent developments, an attack on Iran quite possible and “If Azerbaijan and Georgia will allow that the airstrike will happen from their territory, then who said Iran will not fire back? So, the question is, do we really need all this? Azerbaijan does not need to get into these issues”. Another Azerbaijani political expert, Fikrat Sadikhov said “I cannot speak for the Georgian side, but as far as Azerbaijan goes, no one would really want Azerbaijan-Iran relations to get worse. Since the very beginning, Azerbaijan expressed a very solid, neutral position on issues related to this. Baku will not participate in Anti-Iranian actions. Iran is a neighboring country to us, besides there are lots of Azerbaijani living there, so there is no interest for Azerbaijan to act like this”.
My answer to this statement is: Your President Ilham Aliyev has already allowed the foreign forces in the country and has perhaps been compensated handsomely. Alexei Vlasov, Russian expert put it this way “I have big doubts that Azerbaijan government, which always thinks first, and acts second, will allow such airstrike from its territory. This kind of move goes against the diplomacy of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. The upcoming Clinton visit to Baku is a way to get Azerbaijan to answer one question-how would it behave, if a strike on Iran will happen? I think, Ilham Aliyev will find a way to maintain a much needed balance”.
Revolutionary Guard Brigadier General Mehdi Moini said they have mobilized forces to the area “due to presence of American and Israeli forces on the Western border”. Guards have place tanks, anti-aircraft units in the area as war alert. The point is, this should be considered as a serious provocation. With trigger happy Israelis there, one can hurl a stone over the border and start a war. In conclusion, in spite of all efforts made in the world for production of alternative energy sources, it is inconsequential in meeting the need of the industrial countries.
Middle East oil is the blood that carries the oxygen to the economic tissues of these countries. Maintaining stability and getting the oil out is the principle that governs what may happen with Iran’s intractable regime. While the nuclear program is a concern, it has served as a pretext to do whatever necessary to deal with Iranian regime. But the issue is not all about oil. It is for potential emergence of a rouge superpower. For Iran has all the necessary elements to become one. It has the educated brains, ingenuity, resources, population and the fortitude to achieve this manifestly ambitious objective. An atomic Iran could replace US for protection of the smaller gulf nations. It also may trigger others wanting their own nuclear weapons. Admiral Mike Mullen’s remaining speech: “the diplomatic, the engagement piece, the sanctions piece, all these things, from my perspective, need to be addressed to possibly have Iran change its mind about where it’s headed”. From my point of view the Iranian nation is headed toward greatness; and the Islamic Republic is only a bump in the road.
Act III (Finale) – As I lay on my back I hear the silence permeated over the meadow of death. I see and hear no one. But I feel the cool fresh air passing over me. I am not sure if I am dead or alive, because I do not feel my body, I cannot lift a finger. Then I remembered I was speared by a horseman from behind and thrust to the ground facing down. Why now I find myself rested on my back facing heaven. I am now convinced that my ordeal is over and I will see my mountain once again in peace. Then I sense the presence of someone standing over me, with the tip of a spear pressed on my chest…… “Agha, esme tu chi-ye?”