Recently, I have been reading many blogs on this site, where people talk about an imminent war between Islamic regime of Iran on one side and Israel/USA on the other. Respondents to these blogs then start calling each other islamist fascists or zionists amongst other things. Nobody ever questions the validity of these claims for the imminent war….
I happen to think that a war is not imminent. A war would be bad for both sides, and both sides know it well.
US/Israel: It would cost them both militarily and economically – Oil supplies will be affected for sure. This could send the already badly wounded world economy to potential death. Then there could be retaliatory attacks by Iranain Guards or their allies (Hezbullah or Hamas) against US forces in Iraq/Afghanistan and of course mainland Israel. This would be a battle of life and death for islamic regime and they simply would not have much to lose.
Islamic regime of Iran: The country , since the last disbuted election is divided. The regime can not rely on popular support the way they did during Iran Iraq War. Even with popular support, the Islamic regime would be looking at it’s certain collapse in case of Joint US/Israeli attack.
So what will happen? US does not really wish the collapse of Islamic regime, specially in a revolutionary scenario. They want a stable , and hopefully friendly Iran who could guarantee supply of the oil to the world economy. Democracy in Iran, if at all is way down in US agenda. As the economic pressure due to sanction start biting hard, both side will reach an agreement on the nuclear issue.
What should we do? If you are a democracy activist, ignore these claims of war. There is a psychological aspect to these claims. There is an inherent threat to the entire Iranian nation that if the Regime’s military is attacked, if the regime goes down, you’ll go down with it. Instead focus on your democracy activism. Put aside your ideological differences and build a united front to fight for a democratic Iran. Work with religiuous groups also fighting for democracy. Most Iranians are religious, like it or not. So agree on a democratic base line which would encompass the majority of Iranian nations regardless of their ethnic, religious or political allegiances.
If you are a regime supporter: Enjoy the status quo whilst you can. I frankly can not see how any regime can last by sheer force of military dictatorship. I actually think that it is still not too late. I think and I hope that regime would hear the voice of reason and adjust it’s behaviour in such a way to meet the people’s demand for democracy and liberty before it is too late., Although I doubt it’d happen.
