Think back to the dramatic events of January and February, when for a moment it seemed Arab dictators were falling like dominoes.
Then look at the bloody stalemate that characterises the region today.
The two trailblazers, Tunisia and Egypt, have entered an ambiguous transition as the forces of change confront old elites clinging to power and privilege.
Subscribe to The Iranian newsletter
Sign up for our daily newsletter to get the top news stories delivered to your inbox.