Sometimes you have to make a deal with the devil to escape something worse. Greens and Ahmadinejad supporters may disagee deeply on many issues, but most are sick of clerical rule. The best way to beat Khamnei’s “divide and conquer” strategy” is an alliance of convenience. Both factions know that the ruling clerics is the grearter threat to each at present. No one else compares. An alliance would make both stronger overnight at the expense of the the mullahs who, once ousted, have no prospect of a comeback. .
Prior to the outbreak of World War II, no American president would have considered allying with either the Soviet Union or Nazi German– ideologies incompatible with democracy. What was unthinkable in one circumstance became essential when the Nazis, having conqued western Europe and invaded Russia, seemed on the way to an empire that would extend to Pacific. It could easily have included all of the Middle East after consolidating gains. To Stalin, alliance with the USA would have been just as unthinkable in 1937, but not after June 22, 1941.
Neither FDR nor Stalin could afford a Nazi victory over Russia. It took Pearl Harbor on December 7th for FDR to overcome the objections of isolationist conservatives to helping Stalin, though FDR provided material assistance in the meantime.
In smashing 2009 protests another “alliance of convenience” showed the Greens how much damage such an alliance can inflict. It recalls the kind of defeat a Hitler-Stalin pact inflicted on the Poles in 1939 before turing on one another eventually.
Recently seemingly irreconcilable differences have developed between Ahmadinejad and the clerics (they hate one another!) Thus an alliance impossible two years ago becomes possible now. To move without such a deal may bring the Ahmadinejad-Khamenei factions back together.
The nice thing about this idea is that Greens take the initiative but I suspect Ahmadinejad, needful of allies now, will be glad to deal. Can he be trusted to honor pledges after victory? No. Nor could Stralin. Nevertheless, I suspect he and the Greens would both welcome their chances in a two-party struggle with no clerics to wreak mischief by playing off one another. The chances that differences can be resolved without conflict would be vastly greater without the mullahs around anymore. If violence can’t be avoided then, I suspect it wouldn’t be as prolonged and destructive as in Libya, Syria, Bahrain and Yemen. Unless ousted first, the mullahs won’t leave a brick standing.
