I heard Mark Shield last night on the News Hour say clearly: “This time next year, Iran will be the major story on the News”. This is double talk for ‘who ever become president (of the US), by December next year, US (or by default Israel) will attack Iran’.
I have to say I was stunned. It’s pretty clear that there are major invasion plans in the works, and there is now a concerted plan to invade Iran in about a year. I value Mr. Shield’s commentary. I think David Brooks & Mark Shields are very sage with their observations.
If that is so, Iran needs to take pre-emptive measures now to thwart this ambition. It is NOT that I support the IRI; it’s just that I think if the “allies” invade, Iran will be cut up into pieces. An invasion today does not serve Iranian national interests no matter who is in power. I also think the invaders will likely put some idiot in charge like Maryam or Masoud Rajavi, and whatever is left of Iran will have an even worse regime than Iran has today. After simply observing all the anti-Muslim rhetoric in the U.S. after 9/11, I just can’t say I trust Americans and their allies (Britain and Israel) with Iran’s future. It is even possible that they will round up Iranians here in the U.S. and do what they did to the Japanese during World War II, and BAM …our lives here will be over. 10 years ago, before 9/11, I would have supported it, but not today.
So what should Iran or Iranians do to counter this?
There are three asymmetric moves that would seriously hinder an Iranian surrender. Everyone knows about ‘shutting down’ the straits of Hormuz (that’s not new); but two other moves would be seriously devastating for the West. One of these two would be to an invasion of Azerbaijan.
Baku, Azerbaijan’s capital is the new energy capital of the world. Three major pipelines carrying oil and gas start there and head into Turkey, Russia, and Georgia that eventually result in exports of over 3 million barrels of day of Oil and billions of cubic feet of gas per year. It is a major – non-Persian gulf – lifeline for the West; and was built specifically because of the risks associated with the Persian Gulf.
Baku is also something like 200 kilometers (150 miles) from the tip of Iran …an Iranian border town called Parsabad.
Azerbaijan has been part of Iran for many thousands of years, and most Azeri’s follow Iranian traditions. They are generally Shia Muslims like Iran. Their language includes something like 40% Persian words. They follow the Iranian Solar calendar, with New Year’s Day (No Ruz) on March 21st. You really could not be more Iranian. Language, religion, calendar, culture …are all hallmarks of defining a nation.
But because of the Oil resources in the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan has been the focus of a lot of attention by the West. The breakup of the Soviet Union provided a unique opportunity to exploit these resources, by essentially carving up Iran’s portion of the Caspian Sea into regions that could be ‘claimed’ by these newly independent (former Soviet) states. Azerbaijan asserted claims to many oil rich regions of the Caspian Sea and is now exporting Oil and Gas from those regions with the support of major western oil companies such as BP. In fact BP is ‘the’ major operator in Azerbaijan. It not only manages many oil platforms in the Caspian Sea, but more importantly controls the export pipeline systems. Azerbaijan has become the new source of oil revenue for Britain – replacing its own depleted North Sea oil resource. Azerbaijan is now of critical strategic value to the West.
Given Baku’s proximity to Iran, a military strike on Baku and by default a shutting down of these three pipelines would be a relatively simple task for Iran. Baku could be attacked by land, air and sea with a minimal Iranian force. For a battle hardened force like Iran’s IRGC, Baku would be a piece of cake. And taken in conjunction with the shutting down of the Straits of Hormuz, it would be a major blow to the oil and gas supply chain to the West.
I am sure, western strategists know all this, which is why both the U.S. and Israel – as well as “NATO” have stationed two operating bases there…under the guise of providing troop support to the Afghan campaign. Israel too has stationed troops and air support inside Azerbaijan.
But despite all the ‘foreign’ assistance, I am sure that Iran could very easily grab Baku…in a heartbeat; especially if as it appears certain, Iran develops a strategic alliance with Russia. Pressed between Russia and Iran, Azerbaijan with “all” the foreign assistance it can muster, simply will have to give in. And the end game would be a major disaster for the West.
Turkey can NOT come to its rescue easily, since Turkish troops would have to traverse a country or two to get to Azerbaijan. By the time the Turks walk in, Iran will have its prize.
The best way to win a war with the West is to be pre-emptive. It is pretty clear now that there is a systematic plan to annihilate Iran; and destroy 3000 years of history and heritage – and there are no plans to bring in a proper government in its place.
American support for the likes of the MEK/MKO/PMOI/NCRI/Monkeys scares me. American war talk scares me. American anti-Islamic rhetoric scares me. Iranians must take pre-emptive measures now. A solid invasion plan for Azerbaijan is a must….for Iran to survive. Iranians are being left with very few options.