Iran’s extremist mullahs are now hinting at a ban on pro-Ahmadinejad candidates as the only way to save themselves from an impending election disaster. It too will have undesirable consequece: 1. Ahmadinejad voters will then join the boycott; 2. Other voters upset with a “Bad Mullahs Only” choice may do the same 3. So will any voters whose remaining illusions about fair elections suffered a “last straw” blow from the Guardian Council. So let’s look at all voters to see who has reason to show up and who does not:
REFORMERS: After two years of horrific crimes, few voters still believe the Islamic Republican can ever be reformed or allow free, open and honest elections. Yes many Iranians have defected from the Greens but only to join the next category. That’s hardly good news for the regime, is it? Dreamy types who haven’t made the switch may either stay home sulking over the Great Theft of 2009 or show up and vote “Lesser of Two Evils” unless Ahmadinejad’s faction is banned. Any reformers bearing Jannati’s imprimatur are seen as jokes who obviously run only to help the mullahs divert votes that would otherwise go to to Ahmadinejad’s faction.
“REGIME MUST GO” TYPES definitely won’t show up. They now constitute the majority of the population as even the regime implicitly recognizes. You see realistic fears in the extremes to which Khamenei goes to stifle dissent and prevent free, open and honest elections.
ECONOMICALLY OPPRESSED WORKERS: No matter who gets elected, they have no future prospects for a better life so long as the Islamic Republic exists. Why vote?
THE MULLAHS AND THEIR RELATIVES: Split decision Many despise Khamenei and the thuggish clerics around him. That includes the Khoumeini family and Khamenei’s own brother.
MEMBERS OF THE SECURITY FORCES: Split decision. The Basilj will show and vote for the Wost of Two Evils (the mullahs). So will high officers in the security forces. But the rank-and-file, who voted for Mousavi last time and got screwed along with everyone else. Why would their love of the mullahs have grown since?
THE BLINDLY PIOUS AND ILLITERATE: This dwindling segment of the population is the sole element that the mullahs can still rely on. It isn’t enough.
