There has been much talk about possible retaliation from Iran in case of an attack on its nuclear facilities. There have been dire scenarios predictions, with missiles raining down on Israel and on U.S. bases in the region along with Hezbollah attacks on Israel from South Lebanon, etc. In my opinion, all of that is nonsense. The IR will not fire a single shot if the attacks are limited to its nuclear facilities, and here’s the reason why:
The IR’s paramount concern is survival. It does not care about Iran, Iranian people or Iran’s national interests. It knows that if there is an attack that is limited to its nuclear facilities, it can still survive by just taking it. By contrast, the IR can rest assured that in case it retaliates by firing a bunch of antiquated missiles at Tel Aviv, and causes an escalation in the conflict, the West will open up the arsenal on them and will send them, in a matter of days, where the Taliban, Qaddafi and Saddam Hussein were sent before them. So, from a survival standpoint, the only logical course of action for the IR will be to take it and STFU. And when it comes to their own survival, the IR terrorists can act semi-logically.
There is precedence for this as well. The IR did absolutely nothing in response to Operation Praying Mantis back in 1988 when half of its navy, and a few of its oil platforms were destroyed by the United States in a matter of hours. Because it knew then, like it knows now, that retaliating against the U.S. or its allies would have meant an end to its miserable existence.
Sure, there will be a lot of hart-o-poort and empty threats and blogs on Iranian.com by the usual suspects. But there will be no action whatsoever. Not where there is a clear signal by the powers conducting the attack that they are only interested in eliminating their nuclear threat.
