Whenever there is any major political event, you always have to ask yourself why, why, why? Why this? Why now? Why here?
To answer these why’s we need to start off by asking a rhetorical question: What would happen if Israel attacked Iran last week? How would Iran have responded?
Iran would retaliate by opening up a barrage of missile attacks to Israel. And, Iran’s proxies – Hamas, Hezbollah and Syria would have likely retaliated on Iran’s behalf.
So as part of the preparation for an Iran attack, there has been a slow, steady but definite program to pick off every single Iranian ally one by one – while at the same time improving Israel’s capacity to defend itself and enhance its capacity to deal a devastating blow to Iran’s mullahs.
Phase one started with the downfall of the Assad regime. Syria is effectively impotent while there is a rebellion in the works in Syria. The Syrian army is otherwise engaged! Distracted, or bogged down on the other side of Syria – near the Turkish border…and likely to remain so for a year or so (maybe longer) Syrians are simply unable to stand up to Israel – in any way. Syria can’t help the Mullahs or Hamas – in fact Syria’s regime needs help itself to simply survive. Phase one is proceeded – and needs to be prolonged as long as possible (until Iran is attacked) or longer. Unless Assad’s regime is toppled quickly, which I seriously doubt, we are looking at an extended battle in Syria.
Phase two involved the clean-up of the MEK/MKO/NCRI/PMOI/MONKEYS from Iraq and their recruitment (and subsequent training) in military camps in Israel and the U.S. (Nevada) to enable an embedded (bi-lingual) force familiar with Iran and Iranians. Phase two is proceeding, i.e. all qualified fighters are still in training, and the rest of these Monkeys are being scattered throughout the world.
Phase three is happening before everyone’s eyes: the attack on Gaza. In this phase, the idea is to (a) render Hamas impotent. The Israeli Government provoked HAMAS to attack so that now they have basically spent their entire military potential which cannot be restored quickly. And (b) peel them away from Iran’s Mullahs (this involves bring them closer to the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt as their prime allies [notice how Morsi {Egypt’s President} is brokering the deal with Israel] and at the same time replace Iran as a financial benefactor with Qatar). This phase is going as planned. The Emir of Qatar (yes, the same one that enabled U.S. to base its forces in the Persian Gulf in Qatar prior to both “Gulf Wars”) was in Gaza only a few weeks ago to offer money to Hamas. And Egypt will broker a sustainable peace – ensuring that the Gazans do not just stand up and invade Israel – if Israel attacks Iran. Hamas will have to guarantee this as part of the Peace accord.
If you think about it, why should Israel attack Hamas now? What specifically changed? The answer is nothing. Hamas had been hurling missiles into Israel for years. There really wasn’t an increase in missile launches or indeed any sort of provocation. Israel’s Netenyahu chose this moment to attack Gaza because knowing that he would need to attack them anyway as part of the Iran attack plan, this was the best time to do it – before Israel’s election in January. A hawkish attitude, a brazen attack…would surely juice up the Israeli public …and help him get reelected.
Be prepared for a phase 4, 5, and 6 very soon! Lebanon will be attacked and Hezbollah will be decimated. Israel will ‘fix’ any deficiencies in its missile shield (dubbed the Iron dome) that they discover during this Gaza attack, there will be more virus attacks on Iranian plant and equipment everywhere, and Iran’s opposition will be slowly forming outside Iran (like Syria’s opposition) poised to take over in Iran. And soon afterwards Iran will be attacked in force.
Yes, Iran will be attacked. The questions that remain are: (1) do they still plan on carving up Iran into 5 pieces? My sense is yes, because there has been a recent upswing in military spending by the Kurds – I read an article yesterday about that (http://stratrisks.com/geostrat/9454) (2) who will assume power in a ‘reduced Persia’ (Farsistan)? No please NOT the Rajavis! (3) When precisely will that happen? My Guess is late February to end of March next year or the year after – depending on the situation in Lebanon.
Israel has an agenda to cut up Lebanon – separate from its agenda vis a vis Iran. It’s been brutally repelled out of Lebanon twice – and they want revenge; but more importantly, they want to put a huge gas pipeline across Lebanon and Northern Syria to Turkey! This game in Gaza is a dry run for their attack on Lebanon, and Iran. Expect a Lebanese attack too.
For now according to media reports if the negotiations with Hamas do not proceed as ‘expected’ by Israelis, Israel will launch a full-scale ground, sea and air operation in the Gaza Strip until Hamas is wiped out.
Thus, during the military operation against Hamas in Gaza, Israel plans to cause substantial damage to Gaza’s military infrastructure as well as its political and spiritual leadership. This will significantly weaken the potential of retaliation on Israel from its rear during an attack on Iran.
The whole idea is to engage the Palestinians for at least three to six months of reconstruction. And, during this time, Israel will strike Iran (and Hezbollah).
If the Mullahs are ousted and democracy restored that will be good. If Iran is carved up – that will be bad. If the Rajavi’s are installed in power as dictators – that will be tragic. Israel (and the West) must assure Iranians there will be no balkanization or Rajavis. If they don’t the people of Iran will pick the better of two evils – and that is NOT the Rajavis. This whole plan could backfire!! Remember, with all the support Saddam Hussein enjoyed in 1980 – in the end the people of Iran defeated him. And Israel was defeated twice by Hezbollah. Its time for caution … and to get the hell out of dodge!! It will be messy.
