Keeping his promise, President Donald Trump has re-imposed economic and trade sanctions on Iran despite global condemnation. The measures taken by Washington were intended to contain Tehran’s ability to export oil on the world market, target Iran’s shipping industry, and most importantly take a hard hit on ordinary Iranians. The White House has reiterated that the sanctions were meant to force Iran to change its regional influence in the Middle East, but the move to re-impose sanctions was condemned by the remaining signatories to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) namely China, Russia, The United Kingdom, France, Germany, and the European Union. The International Atomic Energy Agency has concluded that Iran has been abiding by the terms of the agreement eleven times since the nuclear accord was implemented in 2016. As Trump keeps his promise to maintain maximum pressure on Iran, millions of ordinary Iranians will be hurt the most by these sanctions.
Advertising on twitter that ‘sanctions are coming’ was quite a Hollywood thriller from the Trump Administration, but this is not a joke. Trump’s top aides including Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin have talked tough as well. In fact, the Treasury Department has announced that it will target seven-hundred names to its list of blocking entities including sectors that were granted sanctions relief under the JCPOA and more than three-hundred new designations. However, Washington has already given temporary waivers to eight countries allowing them to buy Iranian oil with the promise of reducing that amount over time. The United States has already violated the nuclear accord by walking away and isolating itself from the global community while the signatories want to remain in it. The Russians, Chinese, Europeans, and most importantly the Iranians were abiding by the JCPOA, but now the United States was in breach of the agreement and is going as far as to punish countries abiding by a United Nations Security Council Resolution. In addition, the European Union has created a work around, namely the Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) to still conduct business and trade with Iran. How effective this mechanism will be remains to be seen, but American officials have brushed off its potential warning allies that they could be facing sanctions as well. Right now, the world will wait and see if actions speak louder than words.
The United States is not isolating Iran, but isolating itself.
On Monday, President Trump put all of its maximum pressure on Iran to destroy its economy and force Tehran to renegotiate the nuclear accord. Iran has already strengthened its position in a very fragile Middle East and this is particularly important given the fact that the United States has very few options to convince Iran to renegotiate its security policies and nuclear ambitions. What the European Union, China, and Russia are trying to do is keep the JCPOA alive with the calculation of waiting out the Trump Administration until the 2020 presidential elections and hope that Donald Trump is only a one-term president. The United States, by walking away from a multilateral agreement and violating a UN Security Council Resolution has isolated itself from the global community, and delegitimized its hegemonic ambitions in the Middle East. As a result, the United States is not isolating Iran, but isolating itself.
The re-imposition of sanctions, regardless of what one thinks of the Iranian Government is illegal according to international law because the sanctions are targeting ordinary people making their lives more miserable than they already are. This has been said by the United Nations Security Council, the International Court of Justice, as well as by many human rights organizations like Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International. Apart from this, the sanctions will never meet American objectives in the Middle East like changing Iran’s regional influence. In fact, this will only strengthen the position of hardliners in Iran and of course convince a large sector of Iranian society to rally around the flag and unite against Washington’s approach towards the country. In addition, regardless of what Iran does, the United States would be looked at from some segments of Iranian society as hostile and as an enemy which Tehran has always been for the US.
The objective of the secondary sanctions re-imposed by the Trump Administration is to collapse the Iranian economy with the aim of bringing regime change to the country.
Iran is already well-experienced in handling multilateral and unilateral sanctions. In fact, Iran has been under American sanctions for four decades since the 1979 revolution and up to now, Iran has been able to resist US pressure although it has been damaged by the effects of American sanctions. The objective of the secondary sanctions re-imposed by the Trump Administration is to collapse the Iranian economy with the aim of bringing regime change to the country. This is also something Iran has experienced for almost forty years and efforts to collapse Iran since then have failed. The Trump Administration’s maximum pressure campaign on Iran this time around will be very different because the United States, by pulling out of the JCPOA also violated a United Nations Security Council Resolution and was the only member of the UN Security Council to withdraw unilaterally and violate the sanctions. The other signatories like Russia, China, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany are united to support the resolution and the JCPOA.
Russia and China have already ignored the sanctions, but UK Prime Minister Teresa May said that UK businesses should take advantage of doing business inside Iran and Britain would try to protect business ties with Tehran. Unlike under the Obama Administration, the United States is standing alone against the global community on this particular issue and abiding by the JCPOA provides Europe with an opportunity to become independent from US pressure and extraterritorial sanctions. In addition, the JCPOA also gives Europe an opportunity to expand economic relations with Iran otherwise, the Chinese and Russians would happily fill the vacuum left over from European companies who are already conducting business inside Iran. If Europe continues to expand economic relations with Iran, this would allow Iran to balance its trade between East and West, and if not, Iran will move more towards the eastern blocs.
The JCPOA will also have a grave impact on American leadership in the world. For decades, the American dollar has dominated international trade and the financial system. But because of American unilateralism, the other signatories to the agreement are already creating mechanisms to circumnavigating the sanctions by developing new financial systems, and Special Purpose Vehicles that would allow businesses to stay in Iran and counter the dominance of the American dollar. SWIFT has already suspended Iranian bank access, but it also stopped business with Iran between 2006-2012. However, despite SWIFT sanctions, there is no international consensus on sanctioning Iranian oil, and this would allow Iran to maneuver and resist.
Iran has never been against negotiating with the United States and other international powers. However, Tehran has declined to negotiate with the Trump Administration for several reasons. First, the language and threats coming out of the administration have only escalated the situation. The rhetoric has not only led to an already worse distrust between Tehran and Washington, but also persuaded Iranians to never trust the United States when negotiating an international agreement. Second, the Iranians are fully aware that the Trump Administration is after regime change. This is not only coming from the President of the United States, but from hawks inside the administration from Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security Advisor John Bolton. And lastly, the Trump Administration has lacked any respect for international rules and regulations given the Administration’s withdrawal from the nuclear accord in May as well as its withdrawal from the 1955 Treaty of Amity. As a result of these reasons, the Trump Administration desperately needs a new approach towards the Islamic Republic, but unfortunately, it looks like they will not go along with something like this anytime soon.
