Yesterday’s fighting on the Israeli-Lebanese border has intensified commentators’ already quite heightened rhetoric about the risk of another armed conflict between Israel, on one side, and some combination of Hizballah, Syria, HAMAS, and Iran, on the other side. The risk of another regional war needs to be evaluated, at least in part, through the prism of Israel’s established national security strategy.
We have written previously, on www.RaceForIran.com and elsewhere, about what we see as deeply problematic aspects of Israel’s national security strategy. Our analysis focuses not simply on the determination of Israeli political and policy elites to preserve a regional balance of power that is strongly tilted in Israel’s favor. More specifically, we focus on an entrenched strategic posture built on the proposition that Israel’s very survival depends on its ability to use force unilaterally, whenever and wherever it wants, for whatever purpose it favors.
In the context of the Israeli-Lebanese border, this strategic posture inevitably exacerbates the risks of conflict in an already volatile environment. Two recent pieces of analysis consider the risks of another regional war arising from tensions and perceived threats in the Israeli-Lebanese theatre. These reports also make recommendations on how to prevent war’s outbreak and minimize the damage should a conflict occur.
