The Islamic Republic will NOT fall until the working class joins the opposition. The good news is that day may be approaching rapidly. See:
http://iranlaborreport.com/?cat=1&lang=en-us
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ri7KDzSP5n0&feature=player_embedded
The regime could fall within months. Give it a generous three years at best. The key thing is that most workers WILL join the Greens but how fast? Picture a large pot of water coming to a boil or the surprised owner of a termite-infested house the day his foot goes through the floor. The most hardline IRCG general must grasp the game is over when his troops are being asked to suppress family members and neighbors.
Q: CAN KHAMENEI STOMP THE GREENS WITHOUT ALIENATING WORKERS?
Green victims have become widely admired (Say hello to Neda, Mr. Khamenei!). The reverse is now true of the regime and its leaders. Go figure!
Worse yet, workers are beginning to emulate Green protestors (see link above). Khamenei’s people beaters, “justice system” and jailers will assist them through the next step, radicalization. The term refers to an irreversible process designed to multiply every original grievance by ten.
As workers join Green demonstrations, some will come home with the broken bones if at all. The odd regime strategy seems devised to convert kin, neighbors and acquaintances of victims into enemies.
The other effect is to de-condition the pious (see prison rapes, attacks on reform clerics, etc,) . The pious now prefer Karoubbi, Senei, etc. over the alternative (Khamenei, Jannati, Taeb, the Yazdis, etc.)
Q: WHAT IS THE MAIN SOURCE OF WORKER ALIENATION AND WHY CAN’T IT BE FIXED?
The economy.
It can only get worse. Hardline clerics will never give up stolen billions. The IRCG will never forgo its economic monopolies and black market profits. The biggest problem, however, involves price controls and a very unattractive decision either way. Economists who warned that day would come were either fired or jailed.
Price controls begin as a way to buy popularity quickly. Their long-run effect is to distort the economy by unnatural interference with supply and demand. Iran can never have enjoy a normal economy so long as they remain in place. Billions of money that might be available normally for better uses are exhausted on subsidies. Unfortunely businesses and consumers come to depend on them, making reform a political explosive prospect.
