June 2009 was marked by a number of significant events, including two elections in the Middle East: in Lebanon, then Iran. The events are significant, and the reactions to them, highly instructive… In Iran, the electoral results issued by the Interior Ministry lacked credibility both by the manner in which they were released and by the figures themselves. An enormous popular protest followed, brutally suppressed by the armed forces of the ruling clerics. Perhaps Ahmadinejad might have won a majority if votes had been fairly counted, but it appears that the rulers were unwilling to take that chance. From the streets, correspondent Reese Erlich, who has had considerable experience with popular uprisings and bitter repression in US domains, writes that “It’s a genuine Iranian mass movement made up of students, workers, women, and middle class folks” – and possibly much of the rural population. Eric Hooglund, a respected scholar who has studied rural Iran intensively, dismisses standard speculations about rural support for Ahmadinejad, describing “overwhelming” support for Mousavi in regions he has studied, and outrage over what the large majority there regard as a stolen election…It is highly unlikely that the protest will damage the clerical-military regime in the short term, but as Erlich observes, it “is sowing the seeds for future struggles.”… >>>
