In a lengthy analytical gem in which he breaks with the wisdom of most media experts, James Miller of Enduring America reaches the first two conclusions above and I agree. When you look at the reasoning he puts forth, I think you will too. The third conclusion in the above header is my own. I’m very interested in what Mr. Miller’s conclusions mean for Iran.
Wanting to cooperate fully with the rules here, I’ve post a link to Miller’s analysis in the “news” section along with the original heading (required but truncated to fit) which implies a mere history of the FSA. Thus, many might miss a masterpiece–must reading for ALL Iranians, inluding regime insiders faced with making key decisions, fatal or otherwise.
http://iranian.com/main/news/2012/07/11/history-syrian-insurgency
As you read Miller’s analysis, ask yourself whether the FSA’s tactics could work in Iran. Also, assuming Khamenei uses air power to slaughter protestors, would Iranian also request enforcement of a “no fly zone?” If so, would they have better luck getting the West to agree? Iran is far more vulnerable to a “no fly zone” for geographical reasons. It lacks the air defenses to deter one. With lots of motive for paying back the regime (the Lebanon marine barracks, Al Quds execution of five US soldiers dragged across Iraq’s border and executed in Irans, advanced IEDs) the West has more motive to say, “yes.” Finally it has little reason to fear radical Islamists would reap benefits, producing a future boomerang.
In the following short analysis (subposted at EA) I look at what is likely to set off a similar uprising, how Khamenei is likely to react and what must go before protests start if rationale regime insiders hope for a soft landing. So here it is:
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Iran today resembles a kitchen in which someone turned on all gas burners and left the room–an unsustainable situation. A regime faced with worsening economic conditions, increased repression, a near total loss of legitimacy and a growing sense of hopelessness is inherently unstable and unviable. Yet nothing will divert Khamenei and his reactionary core, lulled into “We showed ’em” at present and already warning of mass public skull crushing (a la Assad) should demonstrations restart. (“It worked once so…:)
No amount of violence can save the IRI now, as realists know or might grasp if they read Miller’s article. No soft landing is conceivable once the public rises up and Khamenei begins the promised skullcracking. Thus he must be removed–either by coup (improbable) or by death (possible but unlikely)–before the spark is lit. In the latter case, the public will not tolerate any attempt to maintain the Islamic Republic or Islamist rule in Iran, where both are too tainted. Given the bloody alternative, the public might accept a temporary “unity government” in which hardline ideologists are ousted, the worst thugs and torturers arrested, and arrangements for a new and secular constitution drawn up.
