Turkish myopia
Turks have much more in common with their Asian neighbors
December 26, 2004
iranian.com
This past week, a historic application for Turkey's
membership into the European Union was accepted at a Summit of
European Leaders.
In essence Turkey was placed on track for membership by 2014,
with significant preconditions. These conditions included Turkey's
recognition
of Cyprus as a sovereign state, and restrictions on Turkish
labor mobility within Europe.
The Turks are fooling themselves.
Turkey has in effect, taken a path away from closer
relations with Iran (and its other surrounding nations). This will
in
the long
run have serious economic and political implications for
the region. Iranians, as a neighboring nation, should have
some cause for concern.
But beyond Iranian concerns, I believe the Turks too, should
be concerned.
Do they really believe that Europe will embrace
them with open arms? Do they really think that they can be full
and
equal members
of the Union? Or will this, as I believe, create a new phase
of discrimination and hatred against the Turks (both as immigrants
in Europe i.e. the 10 million or so that reside in France,
Germany,
etc.) for nothing.
Will this in the long run, when Turkey's
application is eventually withdrawn, lead to new political
divisions -- and
meanwhile impede any prospects of much closer ties in Eurasia
or Central Asia with Iran for example?
The Turks after all,
have much more in common with Iranians, Azerbaijanis, Uzbeks,
Turkmens ... than
they do with the Bulgarians, or Latvians or the Brits for that
matter. Their economic future has already
been linked with major oil and gas pipelines streaming out
of the Caspian region -- where there is literally trillions of
dollars
of wealth being tapped for sale via pipelines through Turkey
(and Afghanistan).
Linguistically they speak essentially the same
or
similar language to these countries. Culturally they have
substantial linkages with their Asian neighbors... Kebab's
and all! Not to mention the thorny issue of the Kurds, which
reside within
3 Asian countries including Turkey - and could be more
effectively managed within a more unified Central Asian neighborhood.
Isn't
it myopic to imagine that a country like Turkey which
has 2648 Km of International borders with only 206 Km
with Greece and
240 Km with Bulgaria their European neighbors -- can
even think of itself geographically as European. And it has
the majority of
its land mass (over 80%) in Asia anyway.
If it joined the
EU, it would be the largest member in land and population (growing
from 71 Million to 85 Million
by
2020). It
still maintains an extremely high illiteracy rate (greater
the 22%, higher than any European country). It also has
the lowest
per capita income of $2530 (lower than any European country
including Latvia).
While Europe's elite may bless this 'merger,'
because of serious concerns about dwindling national birthrates;
and
the opportunity
to invest in and exploit a growing Turkish market. But,
I believe the average European's opinion does matter.
I have
lived in
Europe, and know first hand the extent of racial hatred
against the Turks
in countries like France and Germany. Let's not forget
that "Le
Pen" the leader of France's anti-immigrant party
won over 10% of France's national vote recently. Islamophobia
is running
rampant in Europe (and the US by the way) and it will
hurt
Turkey's membership.
So to reduce any fears -- the EU
placed a restriction on Turkish immigration if its application
is ever accepted.
This restriction
flies in the face of everything the EU has established
to date. The very notion of the European Union was to
create
an economic
environment for free exchange of capital, goods, ideas
and
labor. Virtually the whole continent has accepted a common
currency,
a central bank, and the consolidation of stock markets...
And
frankly, it is impossible to imagine that this restriction
on immigration will ever be lifted. Turkey has very porous
borders, and allowing free mobility of Turks into Europe,
is for example
tantamount to letting all Iraqi and Iranian Kurds into
Europe without visas. Suddenly all Syrians, Iraqis and
Iranians
will rediscover
their Kurdish ancestry. No one really knows which Kurds
live where and who exactly qualifies as a Kurd to begin
with!
In American
terms, it would be tantamount to making Mexico the 52nd
state of the United States and let the Mexicans pour
in (and by
the way
add the Guatemalans into the equation because of that
porous southern border). And Turkey's borders cannot
be sealed
within the next
25 years.
And now, Europe, is becoming a political zone
too. Europe is establishing a 'Foreign Ministry.' Very soon,
it is
imagined that member Embassy's
might shut down and there will be a common foreign
policy and even common foreign representation. Can you imagine
a situation where
a Turk walks into his or her embassy, or immigration
at places like JFK airport (New York, US) and then
get asked
to please
stand in the other line for us to process your passport
-- this first
line is for REAL Europeans.
No, lets be realistic. Turkey
would have much more to gain, by becoming the springboard for
investment and
penetration
into Central
Asia. It needs to connect very closely with its neighbors
so that every Multinational Company places their
operating base for Central
Asia in Turkey.
Turkey is extremely well positioned
for Central Asian market penetration -- good transportation
links, good
communication links... With Iran's GDP exceeding
$500 billion, and a regional
GDP of $1.5 trillion dollars. And the Central Asian
region's
population now at 350 million - close to Europe's.
This is a big market and
growing fast. Central Asia has no where to go --
but UP.
There are also major economic growth prospects for
oil and gas in Central Asia. Why is Turkey positioning
itself
to
become the
poor, disrespected member of Europe, instead of a
leading, respected member of a newly establish Central
Asian
Union? Many of these
Central Asian countries are dying for an alternative
to Russia - for supplies, for support, for investment...
Turkey could provide become their opportunity for true liberation
from Russia.
Europe on the other hand, is facing wholesale decline
and consolidation. No one admits it, but the awful
truth is
that while the creation
of the European Union has established more competitive
European industries against their American or Japanese
competitors,
it has done so at the expense of substantial closures
and consolidation of its industries.
America will
not standby
and see its markets
or influence be diminished by the Europeans... hence
the War in Iraq (in effect kicking the French and
Russians out
of Iraq's
oil industry). Europe will not emerge a hands-down
economic winner -- especially in this new age of
Chinese emergence,
Indian emergence
and a reformed Russia. Europe after-all has major
structural problems -- not the least of which is
basic shortages in natural
resources,
very high labor costs and a heavy burden of social
programs.
For example, in the new Europe without
trade barriers, there is only be scope for a few
world class auto
companies --
there rest
will die or have died or will be absorbed into the
existing majors. Remember Volvo is now owned by Ford,
Saab is
owned by GM ... and
both Ford and GM are closing factories all over Europe
and consolidating production. British Leyland no
longer exists.
Turkey's lower
labor costs would further move production away from
France, Germany or
other major European nations, and cause even more
pain for the Europeans. Turkey's membership battle
will be ugly.
I have lived in Turkey, and I am well
aware of their snobbery towards Iranians. I have
also witnessed
the tremendous
economic development
of Turkey - which has now exceeded Iran's development
in every respect -- without any benefit of revenues
from oil
and gas. The
Turks have put Iranians to shame. Turks argue that
they can pull ahead faster by rubbing shoulders with
more
advanced Europeans
than by jumping into bed with Central Asians. And
frankly with the Mullah's in charge in Iran, and
Islamic militancy
in Uzbekistan
why should Turkey turn towards Central Asia?
Good
question.
The point is, there is no one I know that believes
the Mullahs will be in charge in Iran by 2014.
Islamic militancy
will
die. Turkey can, by the way, play a great role
and be a great role
model in helping secularism rise and moderating
Islamic militancy. Turkey
can actually be part of the solution for the region.
Turkey can help Iran turn the corner now ... and
reap the rewards later.
The premise of this essay,
is basically, if Turkey placed all this energy
it is placing for European
membership into transforming
Iran and the Central Asian region -- in the long-run
it would be further ahead than if it becomes
Europe's half
removed,
stepbrother
or the European Union's largest member with the
smallest voice!
For Turkey to turn its back on
its Asian neighbors is shortsighted and ill advised. It also
flies in the face
of reality.
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