No war against Iran
I suggest that the only way to eliminate the Iran's Islamic government is by getting very close to them
January 23, 2006
One thing is clear that Iran is one the verge of war but this time with the whole world. The recent stand off by the Islamic regime as well as remarks made by the arrogant and ignorant president towards the Israel and the Jewish people confirms Islamic republic intentions and political strategy which is clearly aimed at a war with the west. However; I would like to argues that a military strike, posing sanctions or banning the Iranian national team from the world cup not only acts as a strengthening tool for the regime but it also undermines all the reform and democratic movements in that country.
The eight year war against Iraq and the stand off of the Islamic regime against the west were the pillars of this regime and have allowed them to be functional and remain in existence as long as they have lived so far. One thing is clear that the majority of Iranians are against the current regime but the remaining population who controls the system and all facets of life in Iran have the superiority and complete control over the people. The government's effort for the past 30 years has been to prevent Iranians to have contact with the outside and used state media and television as a tool for propaganda and revolutionary stand off against the west.
After the 8 year Iran-Iraq war came Rafsanjani era which was fueled with economic growth and slight opening of the doors to the investors and western companies. That had tremendous impact in the daily life of the ordinary Iranians; it came to the point that many had thought there was a second revolution happening in Iran that had resulted in slight freedom and ease in strict religious rules which had been imposed by the Basijis and revolutionary guards on the people.
However, Rafsanjani and his clan where corrupt and had been involved in various scandals. This was so obvious that ordinary people started questioning Rafsanjani power and wealth. Many Iranian knew that he along with his family were one of the richest people living in Iran. Rafsanjani corruption resulted in animosity and hatred by the people towards him and his cabinet, which was very clear in the landslide win by Khatami in 1997.
Khatami had promised greater freedom and reform and he talked about dialogue amongst civilization. He encouraged many journalists to write and exercise their freedom. He encouraged women to participate in government decision making process and apply for positions at judicial and parliamentary level. During his first year in the office many Iranians thought that he was the Gorbachev of Iran and he will bring democracy and freedom to the people. However his slow reform had angered many students who were his main supporters during his election.
In 1999 Iran had his Tiananmen Square in which thousands of students' were brutally beaten, killed or imprisoned. Khatami's silence and lack of response to such a callous act by the revolutionary guard convinced the general public that no one can be trusted under current regime and they all act the same. Khatmi's cowardness and lack of leadership proved the general public that reform is not going to happen when a mullah is the executer.
Khatamis' incompetent leadership was the worst blow to the student movement and to the general public. He had done so much damage that none of the other leaders had done. The Iranian people got tired and frustrated and as a result of that very few participated in any elections and ignored the reformers. They showed that clearly in the recent parliamentary and general election when they ignored Rafsanjani and Karoubi and let a conservative hardliner to win the general election.
Recent election in Iran has given voice to hardliners and fanatics in Iran once again. They elected Ahmadinejad who once as part of revolutionary guard and considered by many hardliners as their savior. His win has assured Khamenei and his followers a dominant power from military to judiciary and parliament. Hardliners are in control at all level of government at this moment. However; they know that the pillars of their revolution ideology are very weak and on the verge of collapse.
They clearly know that the majority of Iranian people despise and even hate them. There were polls conducted in Iran that clearly showed that the general public is in favor of change and even dialogue with USA. Many Iranian were even hoping an attack by USA will free them from the Mullahs. However, the recent events and the mess in Iraq have changed their mind. Therefore; the government knows that a military strike against Iran will not win the heart and mind of the majority of the people and will also create a jolt amongst the population that will remind them of Iran during the 1980 war against Iraq where the whole world was against Iran.
Ahmadinejad cabinets is trying very hard to create a sense of Islamic nationalism and bring alive the revolutionary ideology that were the pillars of the birth of Islamic republics creation. However one thing they have forgotten that the majority of the population is very young and does not even remember the revolution and have seen the struggles that their parents had to endure during those times in order to survive. Also these young populations are politically savvy and are aware of the daily events that are happening in Iran and around the world through internet and web blogs.
Therefore it is very important for outsiders to understand the history the current political status as well as the Iranian people and the culture. We have fought for centuries against invaders and colonialism along side the unpopular governments; thus our pride and nationalism should not be underestimated by any foreign government. At the same talking putting sanctions and blocking Iran's national team from the world cup will only add more to resentment and distrust of foreign powers and will remind Iranians once again the 1953 coup, the 1980-1988 Iran/Iraq war and many more bad memories created as a result of arrogant and colonialism policies upon Iranian nation.
However; I suggest that the only way to eliminate the Iranian Islamic government is by getting very close to them. Open the economic and scientific avenues and doors to the Iran's general public. The western government should help in prosperity and advancement of the Iranian nation. I think by helping Iran's young population to become prosperous, I promise you that same young population will help you to overthrow the regime and its fundamentalist ideology. The west should realize that Iran's population is the most educated, advanced and politically savvy in the whole region.
In addition, Iran's population is the only allied of the west after Israel in that region. Iran's population is so westernized that they can relate to the western culture and ideology. This is a great tool and weapon to fight against the mullahs. Maslow believed that people will yearn for freedom and better life style after when their basic needs are satisfied. Therefore; the west should help and contribute in the prosperity and economic development and participate actively in daily life of the population. I promise that in long run that will pay off greatly.
In the short run the concern with regards to nuclear technology and uranium enrichment should be resolved diplomatically and handled through negotiations. I think the west should put on the table in very open forum what it expects from Iran and what it will offer in return and they should participate actively in the nuclear technology advancement of the Islamic republic government. I am just curious why they haven't offered to develop Iran's nuclear technology instead of the Russians.
I as an Iranian would feel more comfortable if the west participates in the nuclear technology advancement of my country instead of the Russians. Given the Russian history with Iran in the past and in fact the corruption and carelessness that exist amongst the Russian scientists and lack of safety and quality standards (Chernobyl accident) I am more afraid for my people than a nuclear bomb.
One thing is clear that the only way to eliminate the Islamic republic is through the people and no foreign power should meddle in this process. The west can only help and support the process and create that environment. Iran's population is young and eager for change.
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