This regime will last for a long time. Perhaps
even another generation
By Nima Bina
January 27, 2004
"Political earthquake" my foot. How sad
that we still have naive folks like Ali Ardeshir Jowza [Blessing
in doom] and Mark
will follow?]who think of the stinking political quagmire
in Iran in such simplistic ways.
I was like that too. But during my last visit to Iran
a few months ago, I changed my mind for good:
1. The IRI has enough seeyaahee-lashkar and diehard
loyalists to last them well into another generation. The hardliners,
are not so few
and far between as we like to imagine here in the west. The image
of a "reform minded majority" is simply a fallacy. The
majority are too busy working their asses off bringing bread to
the table, and practically, don't give a shit. Especially about
secularism and all. Especially even more in the millions of
deh-koorehs outside Tehran.
2. The "banned reformists" like those of
Khatami's camp, Karrubi, Aref, Nabavi, etc are in reality
nothing but ***moderated conservatives*** i.e. non-cleric, often
Western-educated conservatives. The
ones who had the real guts, like Ghasem Sholeh-Sadi, were kicked
out of parliament.
3. The way I see it, Iran will actually benefit if the conservatives
win a sweeping round of elections. Let them come to power and totally AND
FREELY fuck up the country with their idiotic incompetency.
That, will generate a massive upheaval in 10 years that will
put them away for good. Much better that way, than have this
stupid puppet show continue, fooling the likes of Ali
Ardeshir Jowza into thinking that there is a struggle for democracy
4. People continue to underestimate the power of
the media (like the omnipotent state broadcaster, IRIB). These
masters of propaganda, like their brethren CNN, will "succesfully" LIE mesle
sag to invert or twist reality. They can make a disaster
look like a success any day. No wonder even the parliament
cant mess with these fuckers.
Listening to the IRIB, one routinely
gets a daily impression that Iran has become a world
power thanx to "Islam e naab e mohammadi" and "Rahbar
e Farzaaneh ye enghelaab", and that the US is on its knees plunging
into oblivion. The most potent weapon of the IRI is not the vicious
suppression of dissident movements, but the dissemination of disinformation.
AND IT WORKS.
5. "Ticking time bomb", "Boiling
point", "Crisis", "On
the brink of collapse"... What utter twaddle. Wishful
thinking at best. This regime will last for a long time. Perhaps
even another generation. The mullahs may not be western educated
like us, but they sure as hell are smart enough to know how to
fool people (inside and outside Iran) to maintain the status quo,
at whatever cost. The day I read on BBC News something similar
to what happened in Georgia, will I be convinced that people in
Iran actually want some real change. People in Iran want both donyaa
and aakharat. But as it turns out, they have neither.
6. Don't be surprised if you see one day the conservatives
initiating contact with the US as part of their latest ploy to
shut up dissidents.
7. It is foolish to think the US can fight the IRI
with force. The only way to crack the shell of IRI is by using
it uses: disinformation (in fact information). If only the regular
folk inside Iran knew how shitty, how primitrive, how opportunity-less
their country has become. If only they knew the flagrant scope
of Iran's backwardness, light years behind the rest of the world.
If only they knew what Iran could have become. Too bad the US government
has given this crucial job to a bunch of clowns in Los Angeles
that don't know jackshit about their job.
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