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Country #1 has natural resources that Country #2 doesn't
To make a "predator" happy, a "prey" can offer nothing but "its flesh."


M. Ghajar
May 17, 2005 unedited

Nuclear proliferation is hot as has always been.

This time, it is Iran which incidentally has the capability to be self-content in this technology: Iran has the ores. What remains is acquiring (or developing) the technology. The issue of nuclear technology for Iran in our times is comparable to the issue of oil technology some 60 years ago and movement of nationalization of petroleum which forced a national oil company. The success of Jebhe-ye Melli, and Mossaddegh, temporarily brought us the economic decline of 1951-1953 as a result of boycott of Iran's oil by Britons followed by the Americans. Famine killed hundreds maybe thousands of Iranians. Not the famine, but the boycott was aligned with the interests of the United States and Britain. So they did it. This made me think about a possible logical stream that can explain this point very good and helps let get rid of some illusions.

I have come up with the following.

In general:


1) Country #1 is a sovereign country.

2) Country #2 is a sovereign country.


3) An "order of magnitude" means 10 times.

4) A Sovereign country considers its interests.

5) Sovereign countries "only" consider their "own" interests:

The head of a sovereign country has taken the oath to do whatever it can to benefit "ITS OWN COUNTRY".

6) Sovereign countries do not have a responsibility to benefit "other" sovereign countries, although they may if they "want" to.

7) "Want" in (5) happens if there are "mutual interests," at least partially.

8) "Mutual interests" in (6) might exist only if the powers are in the same order of magnitude, at least "regionally." Aside:

Let's suppose the countries are Iran and the United States. Unites States is at least three orders of magnitude stronger than Iran (1,000 times) both economically and militarily (consider 150,000 Hiroshima-size nuclear warheads). In addition, it has occupied practically all neighbors of Iran. Therefore there could probably not be "mutual interest" -- in its natural definitions -- unless Iran tries to endanger the United States interests in the region by acts of terror (which at least for the moment I am not trying to suggest Iran is terrorist or is really decided to use this weapon) which is being proved to be not quite effective.

Therefore, Iran is not in the category of countries which we can easily assume the US can have mutual interests with.

Now let's get back to the general case:


9) Country #1 has natural resources that Country #2 needs them. Let's call Country #1, "flesh."

10) To make a "predator" happy, a "prey" can offer nothing but "its flesh."


11) A country which is at least one "order of magnitude" weaker AND has "flesh", can be called "the prey" and the opponent country can be called "the predator."Conclusion:

United States WILL NOT do anything "exclusively" to help Iranian people. It's simply none of its business. American people's tax money does not go into Iraq or Iran unless there's a good outcome for the US "

only." These are the direct results that came from the simple analogy given above.

Iran needs no intervention. Iran needs independence instead. We must be left to ourselves. Did any country start the renaissance in France by sanctioning it or by military invasion?! The government and the people always evolve together. In any given time, people deserve their government. Everything has to happen gradually. There exist no short-cuts. We do not need a savior when our people do not know what exactly a democracy is or should be, or rather, what exactly they want. Of course I am not implying the United States actually has a democracy as they have their own huge problems. Our people once chose a theocracy when it could truly choose a democracy three decades ago. If we are proud Iranians, we should want the nuclear technology exactly the way Dr. Mossaddegh wanted a national oil fifty years ago. They might sanction us. Good for them, but we will get our nukes instead. That will bring us in a level in which we can really negotiate with the powers, not as a good dog, but as a potential ally or trouble-maker. If we stay to be "prey", the current situation will continue. Although instead we can always stick to China AND Russia AND India AND Europe collectively, in order to remain, hoping not to be manipulated by them this time."

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Book of the day

The Strangling of Persia
A Story of European Diplomacy and Oriental Intrigue
by W. Morgan Shuster

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