When You Love to Hate your Enemy

Interview with Israeli-American scholar Dr. Avner Cohen

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When You Love to Hate your Enemy
by Fariba Amini
20-Nov-2011
 

Dr. Avner Cohen is an Israeli-American scholar who has written extensively on nuclear weapons. Dr. Cohen believes that Iran, like Israel, is conducting a policy of nuclear ambiguity. He has long been a critic of nuclear proliferation. His book, Israel and the Bomb made it difficult for him to return to Israel. He is currently a senior fellow at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey, California and teaches in its graduate program of international policy and management. In a recent editorial in the liberal newspaper Haaretz, Dr. Cohen wrote: “What is seen by many in Israel as a clever policy of ambiguity vis-a-vis Iran is seen in the world as a dangerous and arrogant approach that is meant to conceal a bluff. The general assessment among experts is that Israeli talk of a military option is mainly empty words. Not only does Israel not have the military capability of striking at Iran over a period of weeks, not to say months, on end, but also such a foolish war would not only fail to improve Israel's situation - it would actually cause it mortal harm. Unless it finds itself in a genuine emergency situation, Israel does not have a genuine military option.”

Will Israel attack Iran's nuclear facilities?

I do not think that Israel will attack Iran anytime soon. Specifically, I believe there is low likelihood of an Israeli attack in the coming six months. But it all depends on how circumstances develop. I firmly believe that much of the current talk about Israel attacking Iran is just posturing.

Have you read the recent IAEA report and do you believe Iran is developing nuclear weapons?

Yes, I do believe that Iran continues to develop expertise in all aspects of nuclear weapons research and development, but I am unsure whether Iran is actually manufacturing nuclear weapons. Having said that, I can also say that I have looked at the IAEA Report and it is disappointingly flawed and outdated. It is like a long laundry list of all sorts of items, some trivial some significant; some very old, some not that old. No real technological assessment of the findings, apart from saying that they are “consistent” with nuclear weapons development is mentioned. It is not presented in any chronological order. As a whole, I have found little that is truly new in the report. It is disappointing. Again, this does not mean that Iran does not have the intention of acquiring nuclear weapons but this report, coming out now, mostly serves those parties who will derive political gain from it.

Considering that Israel, Pakistan and India have nuclear weapons, many people ask why not Iran?

Let me say explicitly why Iran has no right to nuclear weapons: because Iran has relinquished its right to possess nuclear weapons. Signing the NPT means relinquishing that right. Legally speaking, Iran is a member of the treaty on the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons, and as such it has no right to possess nuclear weapons. It is as simple and straightforward as that. You cannot have it both ways.

Many Israeli officials including the former Mossad chief are against such an attack. Do you believe that Netanyahu is just bluffing or does he mean it?

I believe Netanyahu and Barak are bluffing, to a large extent, but at the same time their bluff contains some element of truth. I believe that if Netanyahu would have a good opportunity, he would attack Iran.

What is Israel afraid of? Aside from Ahmadi Nejad’s rhetoric, Iran has not threatened Israel but Israel has overtly threatened to attack Iran. Israel also sold military weapons to Iran during the Iran-Iraq war. If selling arms was OK to an Islamic Republic then, why change tune now?

First, the Israeli government did not formally sell arms to IRI during the Iran-Iraq war but rather it was a few arms dealers who sold military equipment to Iran. Second, yes, Iran has not threatened Israel directly per se, but it has done so indirectly by giving arms and ammunition to Hamas and Hezbollah.

You were once not allowed to enter Israel; is that still the case?

No. I had legal issues after writing my first book, but those issues were settled, to my satisfaction, so now I have no problem going back.

What would you like to see happen in the Middle East as someone who is against the spread and the use of nuclear weapons?

I would like to see true progress towards peace in the region. This is the priority. And if that would happen, there would be a good chance for real progress on the WMD issue.

Considering that an Israeli attack on Iran would clearly cause regional tensions to escalate at a time of great instability, what should progressive people do at this juncture?

Put pressure on Iran to reverse course and work to prevent war. Diplomatic initiatives as well as sanctions (and other means) should not be ruled out. Sanctions on Iran’s Central Bank may create a firewall to safeguard Iran. Sanctions can work and Iran must be held accountable for its actions and words.

What is your take on the recent attack on the headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard killing a number of its high ranking members and most notably the main architect of Iran’s missile program? Some observers say that Israel was behind it. Do you believe that is the case?

Whatever I say is pure speculation. It could have been Israel, quite possibly it was. But it could also be others, i.e., forces inside Iran or perhaps foreign intelligence or a combination of all. Obviously, I do not have an answer that could provide anything new on this, but there is no question in my mind that this was not an accident but an act of sabotage.

Do you believe that Palestine should be accepted as a U.N. member?

Yes, I do, at least in principle, but that needs to be done in the right political timing. I think this is ultimately in the interest of Israel as well. Ideally, this should be done as part of the negotiation itself, and it is unfortunate that this effort was made by the Palestinians due to lack of progress.

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R2-D2

Good Hearing From You 'anglophile' :)

by R2-D2 on

With your new avatar of a "Fox", I would liike to remind you of a famous Iranian saying

 

از روباه پرسیدن شاهدت کیه٬ گفت دمم :) !

 

P.S. Be Good - I'm Sure We Both Want To Follow In The Spirit Of the Rumi's Poem That Our Friend "Masoud" Posted In Your Last Blog - Hope You Remember

 

 

 


anglophile

R2D2 Returns

by anglophile on

Sometimes a moving picture is even better than a static one LOL    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0se-clRUIk

R2-D2

Fariba .....

by R2-D2 on

A Picture Is Worth A Thousand Words :)

 

As The World Turns .....

 

 


Bavafa

Dear Fariba Amini: Great interview, great questions....

by Bavafa on

It is amazing how [dirty] politics has effect and poisoned ordinary people's mind and how policies are not fact based.

'Hambastegi' is the main key to victory 

Mehrdad


alimostofi

Fariba: Do you approve of US

by alimostofi on

Fariba: Do you approve of US attacking Taliban?

Ali Mostofi

http://twitter.com/alimostofi

 


Fariba Amini

sorry

by Fariba Amini on

sorry, I meant I am for a nuclear free Midde East !


Fariba Amini

no nukes

by Fariba Amini on

I would not have asked that question.  My question is really in response to those who want Iran to be attacked.  I am against a free nuclear Middle East. Millions of people help to overthrow the Shah's regime.  I was only a teenager but dictatorships in any form or shape are wrong.  The current one is of course a lot worse.

Iran and Israel should come to terms that WE the people do not want nuclear weapons! 


anglophile

Good point OY

by anglophile on

although some say this was one of the reasons the western powers were happy to see the Shah go. 


alimostofi

Futile: Why say "Iran"?

by alimostofi on

Futile: Why say "Iran"? .....

The whole discussion should have been carried out along different definitions of the people involved. It is not "Iran" we are talking about, it is about the policies of The Hezbollah Party in Iran. Big difference.

Ali Mostofi

http://twitter.com/alimostofi

 


پندارنیک

A good article

by پندارنیک on

Thanks........

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Oon Yaroo

Dear Ms. Amini, thank you for sharing this interview!

by Oon Yaroo on

What do think Dr. Cohen's answer would have been had you posed him the following question?

Would the Israeli government accept, encourage, and even support a nuclear Iran (not IRR) If a responsible, peaceful, and friendly government were in charge today? You know, a government of the caliber of the one in charge before 1979, the one you helped overthrow!

I bet the answer would have been, yes!