Let's give credit where credit is due. The 31st anniversary of the 1979 revolution was a big success for the supporters of the Islamic Republic. The regime, as many had predicted -- and hoped -- did not come down crashing. Azadi Sq. and Enghelagh Ave. were packed with people loyal to Khamenei and Ahmadinejad and protests were sporadic and much less eventful compared to the spectacular defiance displayed on Ashura a few weeks prior. So in the coming days expect Khamenei and his lieutenants to gloat about how the people have once again demonstrated their full faith in the Islamic Republic, despite months of tension and turmoil.
Now let's take a look at how the regime was able to pull off this great birthday bash. After suffering a shocking beating by the Green Movement on Ashura, the security chiefs suddenly woke up. They realized the situation was much more serious than what they had imagined. They were determined to avoid a similar embarrassment on the biggest day on the Islamic Republic's calendar. The anniversary of the revolution should be a show of unity. It should send a message that Velayate Faghih is alive and thriving, despite efforts by the opposition and foreign media to show otherwise.
First, numerous officials and religious leaders called for blood. They demanded that protesters and political activists be treated as enemies of God and put to death. That would send a chilling message that the regime would not hesitate to kill its critics even for non-violent protest. And two weeks before 22 Bahman, Rahmanipour and Alizamani were executed and another dozen or so received the death sentence, and await final decision. Meanwhile more moderate newspapers were shut down, several more activists and potential trouble makers were arrested, and massive efforts were made to encourage hardcore religious followers to show their loyalty with their presence on 22 Bahman.
But the biggest preparation was on the security front. Thousands of riot police were deployed in a massive show of force (don't say martial law). This time they would not make the mistake of moving in small units, which made them vulnerable to attacks by rock-throwing protesters, but instead in intimidating groups of hundreds.
And finally, phone text messaging was curtailed, nearly all internet lines were cut and virtually every means of communication with the outside world was blocked. As a result organized protest became almost impossible and images of defiant resistance, which have energized the opposition and generated sympathy in the outside world, dropped to a trickle.
You have to hand it to the Islamic Republic. Must say job well done! Brute force did the trick. 22 Baatoon was a surprising hit.
There's only one problem. The party's already over. The masses are as disillusioned as ever. Hatred of the religious establishment is at an all-time high and rising. If there were fewer protesters on the streets Thursday, they have not magically disappeared. None of them have been won over by the regime, rather they have only temporarily retreated because of a combination of fear and lack of organization and leadership. Schools and universities are still filled with students who wish nothing but freedom and an end to religious rule. Mousavi, Khatami and Karroubi have not yet bowed to the Supreme Leader. That coward Rafsanjani pays lip service to Khamenei but friend and foe know very well he can't wait for Agha to drop dead. And let's not forget the nuclear crisis and looming sanctions. The Islamic Republic has never been so unpopular at home and abroad.
It's a brand new day. Charshanbeh Soori is around the corner. Got to figure out how to contain the bonfires all around and at the foot of Velayate Faghih. Get back to to work boys. No rest for the wicked.
Recently by Jahanshah Javid | Comments | Date |
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Hooman Samani: The Kissinger | 4 | Aug 31, 2012 |
Eric Bakhtiari: San Francisco 49er | 6 | Aug 26, 2012 |
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نسرین ستوده: زندانی روز | Dec 04 | |
Saeed Malekpour: Prisoner of the day | Lawyer says death sentence suspended | Dec 03 |
Majid Tavakoli: Prisoner of the day | Iterview with mother | Dec 02 |
احسان نراقی: جامعه شناس و نویسنده ۱۳۰۵-۱۳۹۱ | Dec 02 | |
Nasrin Sotoudeh: Prisoner of the day | 46 days on hunger strike | Dec 01 |
Nasrin Sotoudeh: Graffiti | In Barcelona | Nov 30 |
گوهر عشقی: مادر ستار بهشتی | Nov 30 | |
Abdollah Momeni: Prisoner of the day | Activist denied leave and family visits for 1.5 years | Nov 30 |
محمد کلالی: یکی از حمله کنندگان به سفارت ایران در برلین | Nov 29 | |
Habibollah Golparipour: Prisoner of the day | Kurdish Activist on Death Row | Nov 28 |
Excellent round up of
by vildemose on Fri Feb 12, 2010 11:51 AM PSTExcellent round up of 22 bahman:
It was supposed to be the biggest day in the Islamic Republic calendar, yet all Ahmadinejad's junta could do was to confine its supporters in one area. The state TV kept repeating two close shot film footage of the crowd in Azadi Square with the sound muted and one still image which was clearly photoshoped.
No aerial shows were broadcast to show the true extent of the crowds. Despite all the intimidations and restrictions on information, protests erupted across the country. Protests that just didn't seem to go away. Every time the crowds were dispersed, they came back again and again.
//azarmehr.blogspot.com/2010/02/todays-round-up.html
Yes it is and was a waste of time
by Souri on Fri Feb 12, 2010 11:23 AM PSTFor all the readers from the moment you have opened your mouth!
You always showed arrogance and disrespect in all the debates you have taken. You can't stay civil, that is why you always get what you deserve!
by reading every single one of them
by hamsade ghadimi on Fri Feb 12, 2010 11:03 AM PSTupdate: 3 out of 354 comments. not counting comments (15) by iri chearleaders, alirezag12, jeleho, marhoum, and sargord. if you find another comment that showed disappointment, let me know (i'm assuming you can read and count). your statement covers all iranian disapora. or did you mean to say some? or did you mean to say a few? where are your numbers? for every person you find that think the movement was defeated yesterday, i'll find you 100 that think this is a long-term movement. now go ahead and brand all in disapora based on that 1%. i'm done talking to you as it is a waste of time.
JJ- That'll be the day
by Anonymous Observer on Fri Feb 12, 2010 10:59 AM PSTthe day that you have to take lessons in "integrity" from IRI trash like Jahelo (no misspell). No sweat, though. She's just tickled pink knowing that after mass arrests, after putting hundreds of thousands of heavily armed thugs on the streets and after closing off the entire capital, its pathetic regime could finally put on a dog and pony show in peace so that its o Boston residing, Kool-Aid drinking out of touch Kamikaze supporters can gloat for a while.
But we should think about all this as charity. After all, this will be a morale boost to Jahelo and its friends and will alleviate the need for them to visit their therapists for a while. :-))
How do you get your statistics?
by Souri on Fri Feb 12, 2010 10:49 AM PSTAre you sure you don't work for the IRI? lol
"3 comments (out of 351) on shifteh ansari's blog were expression of disappointment;"
Guess why? That one was just a "news blog" and was not supposed to include the "emotional state of mind" of the readers.........Still some people did Spam it and others have responded!
But since yesterday, many pages of the site were full of that expression of "frustration" and/or justifying the "reason of the defeat".....
anyway,
As I said, I will open some eyes, maybe not yours, yet!
Say what? Some people just take more time to realize the truth :0)
Pope
by Jeesh Daram on Fri Feb 12, 2010 10:37 AM PSTVery funny comment about Sazegara, so true :)
99 Green Balloons vs 22 Baatoons
by Faramarz on Fri Feb 12, 2010 10:23 AM PST"Ninety-nine green balloons
Floating in the summer sky
Panic lads, it's a green alert
There's something here from somewhere else
The war machine springs to life
Opens up one eager eye
Focusing it on the sky
Ninety-nine green balloons go by
Ninety-nine Decision Street
Ninety-nine ministers meet
To worry, worry, super-scurry
Call the troops out in a hurry
This is what we've waiting for
This is it boys, this is war
The President is on the line
As ninety-nine green balloons go by"
//www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZwhzf8NC4o
hamsade ghadimi
by Bahram G on Fri Feb 12, 2010 10:22 AM PSTThanks. enjoyed reading your post. I usally do.
meaningless response, souri khanoom
by hamsade ghadimi on Fri Feb 12, 2010 10:22 AM PST3 comments (out of 351) on shifteh ansari's blog were expression of disappointment; although the commenters thought the war will be won. and you are lecturing the iranian disapora on their "illusionary vision." you probably think that i thought yesterday was the end of the regime as well. how ignorant would a person has to be for his eyes to be opened by you! that was funny. your response says all you have to say. nothing. you should rent that attic.
Jaleho's delusional quest
by vildemose on Fri Feb 12, 2010 10:13 AM PSTJaleho's delusional quest of artificial "balance"
Artificial two-sides-of-a-story "balance" should not be considered as "journalism". It's foxism.
This sort of "balance" would require that the allegation that cigarette smoking causes lung cancer be offset with a denial of this simple and well-established fact. This is not a game played here. A variety of points of view is all to the good, but a mere opinion not backed up by facts, reasoning or analysis is pure propaganda and at this point in our history, dangerous.
Jaleho's problems for not grasping reality is not due to her political point of view but her severe case of narcissim and delusion of grandeur.
JJ, Hands down the best
by ariane on Fri Feb 12, 2010 10:01 AM PSTJJ,
Hands down the best analysis of the situation.
Just to add a comment:
This regime is least interested in is public oponion or who's unhappy. Under an inspiring leadership, That would eventually bring about their demise. Something that is lacking today.
I think they read the Iranian Psyche very well, make a move and the normality of your daily lives will be under serious threat, and they don't give a flying tosser how they came about putting up a show, as long as they put up a show. All that land is running on shows.
I don't think there is an immediate solution to the Iranian problem. We just inspirational leadership and alot of change in our social behaviour.
22 baatoom was not designed for green leaders. Leave them out.
by Anonymouse on Fri Feb 12, 2010 09:58 AM PSTEverything is sacred.
Vildemose, excellent point
by Cost-of-Progress on Fri Feb 12, 2010 09:45 AM PSTThe so called leaders of the movement are akhund themselves. Mr. Mousavi as prime minister was responsible for plenty of artocities against the Iranians. Besides, they know that people are using the Greem Movement as a vehicle, a means to an end, to get to real freedom and democracy that an ancinet civilization like Iran deserves.
All this amount to them sucking VF arse behind the scenes and beg for forgiveness while the people are left hanging to dry!
____________
IRAN FIRST
____________
My answer to you is .....
by Souri on Fri Feb 12, 2010 09:44 AM PSTJust an ironic smile!
Your "rant", worth nothing more than this!
Hang in there, in one year from now, I will post again my first and second comments here in another similar blog.........just to open some more eyes! Maybe yours ? :)
From Fair: ""For the
by vildemose on Fri Feb 12, 2010 09:42 AM PSTFrom Fair:
""For the first time in 31 years, the government had to build a fortress and celebrate its own existence inside that fortress while beating people outside the walls.
The only thing in ruins is any semblance of support for the regime and any claim it has to legitimacy by any measure- even its own."" Yesterday was a victory for the Iranian people.
The regime does have some
by vildemose on Fri Feb 12, 2010 09:39 AM PSTThe regime does have some popular support, and the regime is able to bribe people to come into the streets.
The biggest problem with the Green Movement is that their so-called front people are regime insiders; they really don't want to take charge of the movement and offer real change - they want to work within the system (we see how that continues to work in the US); and there seems to be this fanciful idea out there that revolutionary change can be organised via social networking.
It is going to take blood, sweat and tears for the current regime in Tehran to cahnge
jj, jaleho, souri
by hamsade ghadimi on Fri Feb 12, 2010 09:23 AM PSTjj, i agree with your analysis and many others (mamad, themrs, shifteh, ...) who posted on shifteh ansari's popular blog. the 22 baatoon or 22000 baattoon best describes the farce of iri's independence day. when the government resorts to a police state and buses people to their own private party where free food and presents are distributed, it clearly shows that the iri regime has royally failed.
jaleho, as someone mentioned, we shouldn't insult cows by naming the iri chearleaders as such. there are more apt names such as killers, thugs, bullies, mozdoor-e regime, free loaders, rent seekers, .... you labeled the uprising advocates as mardom farib (hoodwinking the people); however, this is a term that best describes your idol, khomeini. here are a few examples of this mardom fariby:
1. the religious dignitaries do not want to rule
2. criticism of islamic governance will be tolerated
3. head of islamic clerics will be the most learned cleric (condition of marja'iat)
4. iran will be ruled by islamic shariah (iri later legislated that islamic government trumps shariah law)
5. there will be an end to political oppression and killings
6. there will be an end to unjustly harsh punishment
7. there will be no corruption and humiliating debt to western powers
8. bureaucratic waste is alien to islam and will end
9. there will be an end to class division and poverty
10. there will be an end to exploitation of foreign imperialists (foreign investment)
11. no one will remain homeless in the country
12. iranians will have free telephone, heating, electricity, bus services and oil
13. women will not be forced to wear hejab; they're free to choose what they wear
i'll stop here at number 13, since it's considered as nahs as is khomeini and the likes of you who supported this mardom fariby and still do.
souri, you're generalizing the iranian disapora: "once again, the iranian disapora showed their illusionary vision of the situation in iran." your rant does not match the overwhelming sentiment that was expressed on this site (refer to shifteh ansari's post). did you even read jj's blog? (scroll up). is jj not a part of iranian disapora? there were a few who expressed disappointment which was met with a tremendous response from other readers (iranian disapora). therefore, you're a day late and a dollar short not to mention with a few missing takhtehs. and you don't need to pat yourself on the back and spam us by the best of souri's quotes (your second comment).
Perpertual Correction
by Cost-of-Progress on Fri Feb 12, 2010 09:12 AM PSTPathetic apologists of the hated theocracy consider anything that is against their rapist "leaders" as anti-Iran. What a load of crap.
In fact, anything against these anti-nationalist parasites is pro-Iran and patriotic. When you speakout against religious tyranny, you are promoting your heritage unlike those who promote a culture of inequality and darkness.
____________
IRAN FIRST
____________
Jaleho is Ms. Yak Yak the Laklak! She doesn't care but to Yak!
by Anonymouse on Fri Feb 12, 2010 09:00 AM PSTShe has found an outlet to antagonize and just Yak and nag. No matter what you tell her she'll keep yaking for no good reason.
Everything is sacred.
Souri, it is not neutral journalism, it is RELIABLE
by Jaleho on Fri Feb 12, 2010 09:02 AM PSTjournalism which is important. And granted, Jahanshah does print different points of views that are sent to IC, staying honest to his promise of "nothing is sacred". And, of course like anyone else he's entitled to his opinion.
But, when you open any foreign source of news and they are full of unreliable garbage and dangerous propaganda, because they have an anti-Iran agenda, you expect a bit more from a site called Iranian.com. You expect at least the editorial pages to seperate itself from REPEATING the garbage du jour, or double check itself against "delusions" before tilting the site's opinion to an unreliable direction.
There's a responsibilty put on JJ shoulders which is not put on mine or yours.
jaleho, how long has JJ been publishing you ...?
by Monda on Fri Feb 12, 2010 08:50 AM PSTand other similar pro-AN and IRI views? I tell you how long: Much longer than any of us had tolerance for reading them (so decided not to most of the times).
Now that's enough unbiased journalism, ain't it?
dear Amir 1973
by Souri on Fri Feb 12, 2010 08:35 AM PSTDon't take me wrong. I was not advocating a reform à la Green movement. I don't advocate nothing right now. In that comment, I just tried to describe the picture, as objectively as I see it.
To be honest I don't support the Green movement..........But I have always been with my people, wherever they go! As I believe in the people of my country and I'm sure they are always right! Sooner or later they will obtain what they really deserve :
Irani, mimirad, zellat nemipazirad.
IRI groupie Jaleho
by AMIR1973 on Fri Feb 12, 2010 08:28 AM PSTIRI cyber groupie Jaleho lectures thus: "...valuable and human as the ones your ideological point of view is aligned with." That sounds exactly like the IRI approach, to consider all Iranians, Moslem va-gheyreh Moslem, khodi va gheyreh-khodi, Bahais, moharebs, adulterers, and political opponents as valuable and human...right before they rape, stone, flog, and kill them. When an IRI groupie speaks, an IRI groupie lies.
I don't agree
by Souri on Fri Feb 12, 2010 08:46 AM PSTJaleho,
The time of "neutral journalism" is long over!
The journalists of around the world are now very actively expressing their political views and ideas and they are expected to do so, if not they are not even taken seriously.
Jahanshah, as a journalist is doing a very very great job and has all my respect for what he is doing. I haven't read a word of disrespect to the people of Iran from Jahanshah. He is a concerned Iranian, and like every one of us, he has the right to express his own view, whether in his own site or elsewhere.
Souri: I agree and disagree with you
by AMIR1973 on Fri Feb 12, 2010 08:21 AM PSTI agree with you 100% that many people are way too optimistic about the demise of the IRI. I don't think this regime is in its last days, unfortunately. It is unrealistic to believe so. However, I think it is even more unrealistic to think that it is reformable. Between the 3 of them, Moussavi, Rafsanjani, and Khatami held the Prime Minister's position or Presidency from 1981-2005! Was that the period of "reform" you are talking about? What would "reform" of IRI look like? A "reformed" IRI would still stifle Iranians' freedom more than the 38-year Pahlavi dictatorship, no? Moreover, why would a dictatorship headed by akhoonds and Pasdars allow "evolution"? If you were Khamenei or head of the Pasdaran would you allow such "evolutionary" change? In fact, they have been making plans to change the school curriculum, expel more students, and expand state censorship and repression even more to prevent such "evolution" from ever occurring. This regime wants to be the 1000 year Reich, Islamist style.
I am all with Souri in regards to her disappointment
by Bavafa on Fri Feb 12, 2010 08:21 AM PSTMost of us are sitting here (outside of Iran) and we ask to "lengesh kon"
It sort of reminds of "pool meekham, zood meekham, zeed ham meekham"
All in all, this was a victory for the people, after all the country had to shut its door down to the outside. Think of it as a store that it is forced to shuts its door do its customers. How many times or often do you think it can afford to do that without going bust soon.
Mehrdad
No Jahanshah sorry, integrity is
by Jaleho on Fri Feb 12, 2010 08:16 AM PSTwhen you have the means of disseminating news to a wide group of people in a site which makes it sound that it represents IRANIANS, then you should take a minimum effort to be as unbiased as you possibly can! I don't care what Khaleh Moushe or Khar write. But, you should know better as the editor of a site which is supposed to portray a large majority of Iranians (not as Gaavs) but as valuable and human as the ones your ideological point of view is aligned with.
Did you want to see another "shocking beating" (to JJ)
by marhoum Kharmagas on Fri Feb 12, 2010 08:18 AM PSTJJ says: "After suffering a shocking beating by the Green Movement on Ashura, the security chiefs suddenly woke up."
Did you want to see another "shocking beating"? As far as I know many cool heads in the green movement evaluated that "shocking beating" as damaging to their cause at that juncture.
It would be unfair of me living outside Iran and harshly judge those who live inside Iran and resort to violence against the regime, however I consider it lack of integrity on our part if we encourage violence from the comfort of our homes in the U.S.
Glad there was not a blood bath
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Fri Feb 12, 2010 08:04 AM PSTMy greatest fear was of massive killings of demonstrators and a blood bath. IRR was very prepared and willing to do it. My own friends had told me not to expect a big turnout. Mothers were not going to let their children go to their deaths. Thankfully we did not get a bloodbath. I am glad we did not get Tinneman Square. It would have possibly put back the anti IRR movement by years. Instead the pro democracy movement chose to live to fight another day.
You don't go around announcing you huge demonstrations months ahead and expect the government not to be ready for them. So of course the IRR was ready. People did the right thing and did not play into the IRR hands. The time to hit IRR is when they are off guard and least expect it.
We are in this for a long haul. The IRR carried the day yesterday. But all it takes is one slip; one mistake and they are done for. As we speak the US Senate is tightening the noose around the neck of IRR.The diaspora is not that different from those in Iran. We are the same people. When I talk to people who just got here they feel the same as I do. The one thing we have achieved is to get more Iranians specially in diaspora to support tougher sanctions on IRR. Organizations which were up to now neutral like NIAC are being voicing stronger opposition to IRR. The only people who support the IRR as their basiji cronies and the old left wing ex Mojahed/Fadayi members right here in the US. VPK
PS,
IRR groupies: gloat now because your days are numbered. Now all ex-todehies back to StarBucks!
I've said this too:
by Souri on Fri Feb 12, 2010 08:00 AM PSTIn a blog about Dr Bakhtiar on August 11, 2008 (exactly a year and half ago) I'd said this:
"My belief today is :
the Iranian Nation is now in a process of growth. This process, however sad and bloody, should take its time and complete its evolution to reach to a conclusion for the right decision.
The image is :
A child is still at the primary school, and the parents and teachers and all people concerned, debate and devour themselves deciding where this child should go to University and what Major he should study.
Let this child grew, they will decide by time what they want, they can and they should do.
All we do here (all the people outside of Iran) is reading, talking and
learning from the past. This is not a time of decision. All we have to
do is exchanging ideas."....[Of course that time was 2008, not today]
And also I said this :
"When I talk about the "growth"...people jump on me to say:
You don't mind sadness and bloodshed and that does not make you lose
your temper, but a mention of a referendum gets you all fuming!..............
...."I talk abut the growth, yes. It took almost 70 years for the Communism to be thrown. We are talking about a system here, not a casual change of government.
It feels good to sit here and talk about thereferendum, but look at the reality. See the long distance we have from the reality of our country.
Yes, of course a democratic referendum is the best solution not only for our country but this is a ideal solution for every country in trouble. They all dream of this. But when ? Where ?
It feels good to decide about a referendum, but go say it to the IRI now. I believe we can't.
Maybe the people of Iran, inside of Iran, can force this. I'm sure they will be able to do it one day. Let hope for that. I am all with you."
//iranian.com/main/blog/irandokht/dr-shap...