Let's give credit where credit is due. The 31st anniversary of the 1979 revolution was a big success for the supporters of the Islamic Republic. The regime, as many had predicted -- and hoped -- did not come down crashing. Azadi Sq. and Enghelagh Ave. were packed with people loyal to Khamenei and Ahmadinejad and protests were sporadic and much less eventful compared to the spectacular defiance displayed on Ashura a few weeks prior. So in the coming days expect Khamenei and his lieutenants to gloat about how the people have once again demonstrated their full faith in the Islamic Republic, despite months of tension and turmoil.
Now let's take a look at how the regime was able to pull off this great birthday bash. After suffering a shocking beating by the Green Movement on Ashura, the security chiefs suddenly woke up. They realized the situation was much more serious than what they had imagined. They were determined to avoid a similar embarrassment on the biggest day on the Islamic Republic's calendar. The anniversary of the revolution should be a show of unity. It should send a message that Velayate Faghih is alive and thriving, despite efforts by the opposition and foreign media to show otherwise.
First, numerous officials and religious leaders called for blood. They demanded that protesters and political activists be treated as enemies of God and put to death. That would send a chilling message that the regime would not hesitate to kill its critics even for non-violent protest. And two weeks before 22 Bahman, Rahmanipour and Alizamani were executed and another dozen or so received the death sentence, and await final decision. Meanwhile more moderate newspapers were shut down, several more activists and potential trouble makers were arrested, and massive efforts were made to encourage hardcore religious followers to show their loyalty with their presence on 22 Bahman.
But the biggest preparation was on the security front. Thousands of riot police were deployed in a massive show of force (don't say martial law). This time they would not make the mistake of moving in small units, which made them vulnerable to attacks by rock-throwing protesters, but instead in intimidating groups of hundreds.
And finally, phone text messaging was curtailed, nearly all internet lines were cut and virtually every means of communication with the outside world was blocked. As a result organized protest became almost impossible and images of defiant resistance, which have energized the opposition and generated sympathy in the outside world, dropped to a trickle.
You have to hand it to the Islamic Republic. Must say job well done! Brute force did the trick. 22 Baatoon was a surprising hit.
There's only one problem. The party's already over. The masses are as disillusioned as ever. Hatred of the religious establishment is at an all-time high and rising. If there were fewer protesters on the streets Thursday, they have not magically disappeared. None of them have been won over by the regime, rather they have only temporarily retreated because of a combination of fear and lack of organization and leadership. Schools and universities are still filled with students who wish nothing but freedom and an end to religious rule. Mousavi, Khatami and Karroubi have not yet bowed to the Supreme Leader. That coward Rafsanjani pays lip service to Khamenei but friend and foe know very well he can't wait for Agha to drop dead. And let's not forget the nuclear crisis and looming sanctions. The Islamic Republic has never been so unpopular at home and abroad.
It's a brand new day. Charshanbeh Soori is around the corner. Got to figure out how to contain the bonfires all around and at the foot of Velayate Faghih. Get back to to work boys. No rest for the wicked.
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timothyfloyd: Iran never had
by vildemose on Sat Feb 13, 2010 08:08 AM PSTtimothyfloyd: Iran never had a republic to lose. With all due respect, You have some valid points but you will not be taken seriously when you imply that Iran was a "republic". It indicates that you are not really informed about the Islamic Republic and how it came about and how it is run...
Dear Hamsadeh,I like what you wrote to Jaleho in your last com..
by mitra northcal on Fri Feb 12, 2010 11:15 PM PSTDear Hamsadeh,I like what you wrote to Jaleho in your last comment. You wrote:
خسته نباشید از اینقدر مردم فریبی. شنیدم شپش گزیدت، خر لگدمالت کرده و یک موش روحت را داره میجوه
thanks.
.
by timothyfloyd on Wed May 12, 2010 09:17 PM PDT.
.
.
JJ
by shushtari on Fri Feb 12, 2010 07:36 PM PSTright on the money!
eid norouz will be a new day for iran....
this is not a victory, when you suffocate your own people......imagine what would happen if they allowed the people to protest at will!!!!!!
they would overrun the pasdars
Jaleho, no next one is Charshanbeh-Souri
by Khar on Fri Feb 12, 2010 07:28 PM PSTSo get ready for it, the ancient fires will set your city ablaze after dark! and this is how it's going to be darling better get used to it. Your island of stability has a big live volcano smack right in the middle of it now and its erupting often!!
By the way don't forget to tie some grass at the Sinzdeh-Bedar, Ta Bakhtet Vaa Sheh!
آقای ژاله
hamsade ghadimiFri Feb 12, 2010 07:23 PM PST
خسته نباشید از اینقدر مردم فریبی. شنیدم شپش گزیدت، خر لگدمالت کرده و یک موش روحت را داره میجوه. هنوز اعتقاد داری به این دولت تجاوزکار قاتل که خمینی رو حرفهای پوچ مردم فریبش بنا کرده؟ ویدئو اتوبوس هارو ندیدی ردیف شده بود برای "طرفداران" احمقی. ویدئو صفّ کشیدن رو برای غذا و بسته هدیه هارو ندیدی برای این مردم بدبخت بیچاره که به زور چپوندن تو میدون آزادی؟ داشتن تو سر همدیگه میزدن یه شیتیلی بگیرن. ویدئو هزاران نیروی انتظامی رو ندیدی که مردم بیرون قلعه آزادی رو محاصره کرده بودن. کتک میزدن. گاز اشک آور پرت میکردن. خدا بهت رحم کنه. راستی فردا میای تظاهرات از ما عکس بگیری؟ میخوام پاسپورتم رو تمدید کنم. ؛)
LOL, Islamist Sara Palin
by vildemose on Fri Feb 12, 2010 07:00 PM PSTLOL, Islamist Sara Palin calls JJ, Rush Limbaugh!
Congrats JJ, you can now
by Jaleho on Fri Feb 12, 2010 06:41 PM PSTstart a competition with Rush Limbaugh, you've got the base too! I guess some people have no problem being the mouthpiece for spreading baseless propaganda, even when the reality hits them on the head MASSIVELY!!
"depends on what you mean by massive. Questions are being raised whether IRI supporters even filled Azadi Sq. or Enghelab Ave at the height of the 22 Bahman ceremonies. But let's assume they did. But how did they do it? By busing namaz jomeh crowds from different towns to Tehran. "
OK my friend, celebrate 10 revolutions a year together with your followers at Iranian.com! Next one is on sizdehbedar, ha?
Even the Arabs are
by vildemose on Fri Feb 12, 2010 06:38 PM PSTEven the Arabs are beginning to see the true face of IRI:
originally posted in the news section by Niloufar Parsi
//english.aljazeera.net/focus/2010/02/201021014518463761.html
Dear Fair
by vildemose on Fri Feb 12, 2010 06:31 PM PSTMeanwhile, those of you who come on this website and say who is allowed to be opposition and who is not are on the wrong history. "Dark" or "light" or "polka dotted" greens are silly distinctions. In my book, all those who have Iran's interests at heart are Iranian and patriotic. Whether they be reformers, secularists for overthrow, monarchists, leftists, nationalists, religious, atheist, moonies, you name it. Imagine an Iran where all Iranians have a place, not just the ones you approve of. And all those who use terrorism against the people of Iran will face justice. They will be treated like any common criminal who illegally dictates to a fellow citizen how they should live their life
Hear, hear, BRAVO. . We should all take heed and make this as our personal goal or Norooz resolution.
HG jan: Thank you for doing
by vildemose on Fri Feb 12, 2010 06:21 PM PSTHG jan: Thank you for doing the math. I guess I was wrong because I didn't have the precise square footage.
The IRI's apologist are liars of the worst kind.
Hamsade
by Fair on Fri Feb 12, 2010 06:20 PM PSTThank you for your data. The google link is at
//google-latlong.blogspot.com/2010/02/view-in...
It shows a sparse Azadi square at 10:47 am local time. More details and analysis links were kindly provided by Shifteh Ansari in the thread
//iranian.com/main/2010/feb/where-are-iri...
which I am reposting below. Given these pictures and your data, it is very hard to imagine that square having more than 100k people in it. After all this preparation for months. It is very telling.
However, Azadi street that feeds into Azadi square looked full of people, and it was barricaded off. In fact, this year, for the first time ever, there were two layers of barricades separating the crowds from AN. So it is not even clear what the makeup of the crowd behind the barricade was. Please visit the above thread, it has a very telling video of inside Azadi square, where people are observed not even paying attention to AN's speech, and even one IRI flag with the IR emblem cut out. In the heart of the "supporters".
-Fair
Repost of Shifteh Ansari's links:
1. You can see parts of the Google image of Tehran at 10:47 a.m. on February 11, 2010 (22 Bahman) here:
//arteshesabz.blogspot.com/2010/02/22_12.html
and here: //friendfeed.com/vahid9/0e21cf75
2. Someone has videotaped the Google Earth image. It shows the
hundreds of buses which brought the so called "pro-government"
demonstrators to Azadi Square on 22 Bahman. You can watch it here:
//culturallogic.blogspot.com/2010/02/blog-pos...
3. You can see Google's image for yourself here:
//google-latlong.blogspot.com/2010/02/view-in...
4. This is Rah-e Sabz's crowd analysis of the image inside Azadi Square:
//www.rahesabz.info/picstories/tehran_iran_02...
JJ LEFT WITH NO OTHER OPTIONS BUT TO BE IRAN'S JESUS
by zanboor_ghavi_mannyslawyer on Fri Feb 12, 2010 06:15 PM PSTFOR LETTING DOWN SO MANY PEOPLE.
VAGHEAN, YOU LET DOWN A HUGH NUMBER OF YOUR SO CALLED FOLLOWERS AND NOW YOU ARE HERE TO PROVIDE ANALYSIS.
YOU WANT TO REMOVE THE IRI REGIME THAT KHOMENI HELPED ESTABLISH
YOU TAKE KHOMEINI FOR A JOKE. YOU RUN AN MAGAZINE THAT 14 YEARS LATER CANT RAISE ENOUGH FUNDS FROM ITS READERS AND YOU HAVE THE AUDACITY TO QUESTION KHOMEINI'S LEADERSHIPO SKILLS AND MANAGMENT.
AHHHH, LORD, WHEN WILL PEOPLE EVER GROW UP
THE ONLY SOLUTION AND MOVE LEFT FOR JJ, IS TO ANNOUNCE IN TWO WEEKS THAT HE IS HEADING TO IRAN TO BE WITH HIS PEOPLE AND IS READY FOR THE SACRIFICE AND TORTURE
THIS EXTREME ACT IS WHAT IS LEFT FOR REDEMPTION. MAYBE THEN YOU CAN CAUSE SOME NOISE AND GET MORE POPULAR. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS IS ALL THAT IS LEFT FOR JJ.
I REALLY WISH IT WAS OTHERWISE, BUT I THINK AFTER THE HUGH MELTDOWN, JJ HAS NO OTHER RECOURSE BUT TO DO WHAT JESUS DID.
JJ WOULD DO WHAT JESUS DID- OFFER HIMSELF AND HIS LIFE FOR THE PEOPLE
vildemose
by hamsade ghadimi on Fri Feb 12, 2010 06:00 PM PSTazadi square is 50,000 square meter (see azadi tower in wiki). that area is equal to 538,196 square feet. if each person fits into one square foot and if you subtract the area of the actual azadi tower and the area for the reporters and "khavas", then at most half million people can fit into the square. fair indicated that there is google pictures of the demonstrations. i haven't seen it myself (i searched). if he could tell us where to find the picture, then we can see if the crowd actually filled the square and if it spilled into the adjoining avenues that intersect the square.
I don't think Azadi Square,
by vildemose on Fri Feb 12, 2010 05:23 PM PSTI don't think Azadi Square, including all the roads leading to the square, can hold more than a million or two people.. if we had th square footage, we could have guesstimated the number of peopel.
What is the square footage
by vildemose on Fri Feb 12, 2010 05:18 PM PSTWhat is the square footage of Azadi square?? Does anyone know??
A failed revolution and a failed state
by Fair on Fri Feb 12, 2010 07:54 PM PSTJJ is right on. Just look at the pathetic showing in Azadi square, and look at the satellite evidence kindly provided by Google.
This by far was the most militarized celebration of the failed revolution in its history. The entire city was under siege by IR terrorist storm troopers backed by Chinese anti civilian vehicles. They built a fortress around the thief president, didn't even come close to filling in that fortress, and had to resort to beating and attacking and arresting everybody outside that fortress.
Meanwhile look at the people who despite open government threats, shutdown of communications, world's most severe assault on the press, execution of people on arbitrary charges, they still came out and confronted this illegitimate government.
This government cannot even pretend to be legitimate anymore. The cat is out of the bag, and history is in the making. It is only a matter of time.
Meanwhile, those of you who come on this website and say who is allowed to be opposition and who is not are on the wrong side of history. "Dark" or "light" or "polka dotted" greens are silly distinctions. In my book, all those who have Iran's interests at heart are Iranian and patriotic. Whether they be reformers, secularists for overthrow, monarchists, leftists, nationalists, religious, atheist, moonies, you name it. Imagine an Iran where all Iranians have a place, not just the ones you approve of. And all those who use terrorism against the people of Iran will face justice. They will be treated like any common criminal who illegally dictates to a fellow citizen how they should live their life.
From now until the end of this regime, let us practice this idea with each other and make an example that we can be proud of. Otherwise we will just face yet another gang in the making. No one group should monopolize power, and the people should choose. Let this be the last time in our history where the people have to kill themselves to get a new government.
-Fair
Massive?
by Jahanshah Javid on Fri Feb 12, 2010 04:58 PM PSTMG, depends on what you mean by massive. Questions are being raised whether IRI supporters even filled Azadi Sq. or Enghelab Ave at the height of the 22 Bahman ceremonies. But let's assume they did. But how did they do it? By busing namaz jomeh crowds from different towns to Tehran. When the capital of the Islamic Republic with more than 15 million residents doesn't have enough supporters to fill one street, what does that say?
What this theocracy is left with is a small minority of religious followers who do not question anything the ruling clergy feeds them. They are dead inside. They are the remainder of the masses after 31 years of repeated purges. They are not inclusive of all Iranians. They are exclusively blind to realities.
No amount of lies and propaganda and superstition and threats and violence can stop a nation's wish to be free. And that's not a slogan. It's truth backed by history.
Dear JJ
by mostafa ghanbari on Fri Feb 12, 2010 04:24 PM PSTmg
Great job!
But I wished you would go through the massive number of people who chanted and supported the Islamic regime as well. I mean the very same people with the very same massive number who have been doing so for 31 years.
پیروز 22 بهمن، جنبش سبز بود
Mardom MazloomFri Feb 12, 2010 04:10 PM PST
22 بهمن آمد و گذشت، هر چند شاید با آنچه آرزویش را داشتیم، تفاوت داشت، اما به نظر من، دستاورد های بسیار بزرگی برای ما داشت. دستاوردهایی که باید ماه ها تلاش میکردیم تا بدان برسیم. بزرگترین دستاوردی که حکومت به ما هدیه داد، آن بود که به اقشار مردمی طرفدار خود، که ماه ها در تلویزیون دروغ تحویل داده بود، خود بطلان حرف هایش را نشان داد. نشان داد که فقط به نیروی نظامی متکی است و بدون آن توان ایستادن ندارد. این معنا مسلما به تمام اقشار طرفدار خود، عمق بحران را منتقل کرد و آن ها فهمیدند که شاید نتوان به این حکومت در طولانی مدت دل بست.
//spinooza.blogspot.com/2010/02/blog-post_683...
Good job
by SamSamIIII on Fri Feb 12, 2010 04:04 PM PSTWeekly editorial is a good thing if it,s for a good cause.
Cheers!!!
Path of Kiaan Resurrection of True Iran Hoisting Drafshe Kaviaan //iranianidentity.blogspot.com //www.youtube.com/user/samsamsia
JJ
by minadadvar on Fri Feb 12, 2010 03:09 PM PSTGreat blog.
Your analysis reminds me of the New York Times article that was published on Wednesday February 10th.
khar
by hamsade ghadimi on Fri Feb 12, 2010 03:08 PM PSTat least, you three are being attacked by the chief iri propagandist in the u.s. (or at least this site). i'm being attacked by his nocheh. hamaro sayl mibareh maro akhtof.
on aside, i've never paid close attention to this sazegara. but he seems to be the new number one enemy for this gang. i listened to his latest video and he seems to be making the same observations that many other had made. i don't understand what the big deal is? in fact, jj made many of the same obsevations independently in this blog.
As long as green has not
by benross on Fri Feb 12, 2010 03:02 PM PSTAs long as green has not changed to shir-o-khorshid, we are spectators of a movie increasingly boring.
This is what we get when we don't say goh khordam... and we did.
Jaleho just to set the record straight...
by Khar on Fri Feb 12, 2010 02:44 PM PSTKhaleh Mouseh, Shepesh and I, we never called the consciously blind and profiteering supporters of the IRI "Gaav", cause unlike them Gaav has great benefit for Iranians, if they can afford it!
The Apologist has probably never read a newspaper
by mehdi2009 on Fri Feb 12, 2010 01:00 PM PSTJahanshah,
First of all let me congratulate you on your excellent article. It is well written and to the point.
It is amazing some of the incredibly ignorant remarks by certain know it all Murderous Regime's Apologist on this marvelous forum. The Certain individual has probably never read any major or for that matter local newspaper, otherwise would not make such an asinine comment. As everyone who ever read either London Times, New York Times or Washington Post can attest, there is an OP-ED Page which usually the Newspaper's the Editor or other well known journalist such as Maureen Dowd or Frank Rich writes an Opinion Based article. Jahanshah's article was of similar basis, and it is his opinion and therefore his right to express it in a free and fair society.
Of Course if the article spewed the same Garbage that this Murderous Regime's apologist puts out every day on this forum, then Jahanshah's opinion would have been the best thing since slice Bread.
Therefore, it is a good thing for this particular Murderous Regime's Apologist to read a few more articles other that the FILT that the Murderous Regime's Propaganda Machine throws out every single day.
Salutations to ALL the TRUE Sons and Daughters of Iran.
Mehdi2009
hamsadeh ghadimi
by marhoum Kharmagas on Fri Feb 12, 2010 12:55 PM PSTI never considered likes of Sazegara, monarchists, ...., part of the green movement. so your statement is invalid.... keep tearing ashek temsah for "Iranian people"!
marhoum-e khar
by hamsade ghadimi on Fri Feb 12, 2010 12:28 PM PSTi'm glad that you're against people like me. it is a sort of validation of the ideals that i and people like me stand for. ideals of human rights whether if it is under the color of light green, dark green, orange, purple, or white. i guess you got your orders to try to split up the uprising. so you (or your higher ups most probably) came up with the idea of light and dark green. i'm not fooled for a moment. although i disagree with souri, i will not put her in the same category of a scumbag like yourself. good try. it probably sent a chill up her spine to be backed by you.
you can drink your sharbat sekanjebin or aragh sagi or whateve hell you're drinking. the iranian people are on the side of justice and that is why they will be victorioius over murderers and treacherous loudspeakers like you.
'Latter Day Greens' lost (to hamsade ghadimi)
by marhoum Kharmagas on Fri Feb 12, 2010 12:21 PM PSThg, "freedom fighters" of your type can not even tolerate some very mild statements from Souri, and you claim you want to "free" Iran! Although I believe many "radicals" such as yourself are not any more democrat than IRI or any less fascist than IRI (however you want to put it), and could care less about your opinion, as it relates to this topic and 22nd Bahman, I have explicitly said that the only clear winners are progressive patriotic greens. ..... on the other hand the losers are 'Latter Day Greens' as Mammad put it very appropriately.
So, as I am typing this I am drinking to continued losses for 'Latter Day Greens' (e.g., Sazegara) but more importantly drinking to future success of progressive greens and reform.
Dear HG - thanks for pointing all non-believers in human rights
by MM on Fri Feb 12, 2010 11:59 AM PSTYou have to believe in human rights before you truely practice your religious rights.
As someone I know said "maa mosalmaan hasteem, oonhaa eslamee hastand".