22 Baatoon

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Jahanshah Javid
by Jahanshah Javid
11-Feb-2010
 

Let's give credit where credit is due. The 31st anniversary of the 1979 revolution was a big success for the supporters of the Islamic Republic. The regime, as many had predicted -- and hoped -- did not come down crashing. Azadi Sq. and Enghelagh Ave. were packed with people loyal to Khamenei and Ahmadinejad and protests were sporadic and much less eventful compared to the spectacular defiance displayed on Ashura a few weeks prior. So in the coming days expect Khamenei and his lieutenants to gloat about how the people have once again demonstrated their full faith in the Islamic Republic, despite months of tension and turmoil.

Now let's take a look at how the regime was able to pull off this great birthday bash. After suffering a shocking beating by the Green Movement on Ashura, the security chiefs suddenly woke up. They realized the situation was much more serious than what they had imagined. They were determined to avoid a similar embarrassment on the biggest day on the Islamic Republic's calendar. The anniversary of the revolution should be a show of unity. It should send a message that Velayate Faghih is alive and thriving, despite efforts by the opposition and foreign media to show otherwise.

First, numerous officials and religious leaders called for blood. They demanded that protesters and political activists be treated as enemies of God and put to death. That would send a chilling message that the regime would not hesitate to kill its critics even for non-violent protest. And two weeks before 22 Bahman, Rahmanipour and Alizamani were executed and another dozen or so received the death sentence, and await final decision. Meanwhile more moderate newspapers were shut down, several more activists and potential trouble makers were arrested, and massive efforts were made to encourage hardcore religious followers to show their loyalty with their presence on 22 Bahman.

But the biggest preparation was on the security front. Thousands of riot police were deployed in a massive show of force (don't say martial law). This time they would not make the mistake of moving in small units, which made them vulnerable to attacks by rock-throwing protesters, but instead in intimidating groups of hundreds.

And finally, phone text messaging was curtailed, nearly all internet lines were cut and virtually every means of communication with the outside world was blocked. As a result organized protest became almost impossible and images of defiant resistance, which have energized the opposition and generated sympathy in the outside world, dropped to a trickle.

You have to hand it to the Islamic Republic. Must say job well done! Brute force did the trick. 22 Baatoon was a surprising hit.

There's only one problem. The party's already over. The masses are as disillusioned as ever. Hatred of the religious establishment is at an all-time high and rising. If there were fewer protesters on the streets Thursday, they have not magically disappeared. None of them have been won over by the regime, rather they have only temporarily retreated because of a combination of fear and lack of organization and leadership. Schools and universities are still filled with students who wish nothing but freedom and an end to religious rule. Mousavi, Khatami and Karroubi have not yet bowed to the Supreme Leader. That coward Rafsanjani pays lip service to Khamenei but friend and foe know very well he can't wait for Agha to drop dead. And let's not forget the nuclear crisis and looming sanctions. The Islamic Republic has never been so unpopular at home and abroad.

It's a brand new day. Charshanbeh Soori is around the corner. Got to figure out how to contain the bonfires all around and at the foot of Velayate Faghih. Get back to to work boys. No rest for the wicked.

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more from Jahanshah Javid
 
ThePope

Sazegara

by ThePope on

ageh dasaasho begiran, digeh nemitooneh harf bezaneh...!  ;-)
lol


marhoum Kharmagas

Well said Souri jaan!

by marhoum Kharmagas on

"Manifestation was there, protest was there. Yes agreed, the expected ultra-violence has not happened, thanks God! What for?"

Well said Souri jaan.  


khaleh mosheh

Summarising 22 Bahaman

by khaleh mosheh on

Sazegara is giving a preliminary summary and analysis of the events.

 //www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qc36hVPNKwY

Jaleho- Enjoy :) 

 

 

 


Souri

What surprised me really.....

by Souri on

was not the Thursday outcome, but the feeling of disappointment that I saw from the Iranian Diaspora!

What were they expecting? A One Day Revolution à la carte?

What was expected from the protestation of yesterday which has not been accomplished? What people were expecting?

Manifestation was there, protest was there. Yes agreed, the expected ultra-violence has not happened, thanks God! What for?

Once again, the Iranian Diaspora showed their illusionary vision of the situation in Iran. Why everybody was expecting a big event on a very expected date? You guys are sure you are not confusing a "revolution" with an "election" ?

A revolution is a process! This is not something which happens on a fixed date with a very vast open advertisement and preparation!

Those people who are protesting in Iran, are not even thinking of a revolution, they are thinking of a reform!!! They are manifesting their anger about an undemocratic election and the oppression which have been exerted on them for having protested. Then they did their job yesterday and they will again do it until they get what they are claiming, a free election! Not a revolution! This is what YOU want, not them.

Suppose that they had succeed and had defeated the actual system just yesterday. Then who would take the lead? Mousavi? Karoubi? If this is one of them, then it would not be called a revolution, but a reform. Sorry to disappoint you, but this is a very basic and primitive lesson of the political sciences and sociology.

And if you are not expecting Mousavi or Karoubi or the  other thugs to become the leader, then who else?
Who is the leader? What is their program? How organized they are?

Don't hope for your own desire please! Get realistic, guys! Think rationally and try to analyze the real situation with the actual provided means.

What is supposed to happen? Do you know? Please inform me too, I am really curious to know it too.

Are you really sure that you are in synchrony  with the people of Iran?

I'm not so sure.


AMIR1973

Jahanshah, when I think of integrity, I think of IRI groupies

by AMIR1973 on

Islamists burned the Cinema Rex (the bloodiest incident of the Revolution) and pinned the blame on the Shah. Islamists took the tragedy of Black Friday (88 dead, according to Emadeddin Baghi, a researcher at the IRI's own Martyrs Foundation) and falsely claimed that over 4,000 had been killed in Jaleh Square. Khomeini's life was spared by the Shah in 1963 at the urging of Hassan Pakravan and Ayatollah Shariatmadari. Khomeini had Pakravan executed. He had Shariatmadari (his senior in clerical ranks), framed, "defrocked", humiliated, and placed under house arrest. When did Khomeini ever show mercy or spare anyone's life? Think of his three closest confidants and advisors in Paris: Qotbzadeh, Bani Sadr, and Ebrahim Yazdi. Qotbzadeh was executed. Bani Sadr was forced to flee (and almost certainly would have been executed if caught). Yazdi got off relatively cheap for his unprincipled collaboration (though he occasionally still gets harassed and detained). To get to know the essence of the IRI and its long distance cyber groupies (whose love affair with IRI is conducted from the heart of Sheytan-e Bozorg and the decadent West in N America and Europe), you have to know Khomeini. You allow IRI cyber groupies, like Jaleho et al, to have unrestrained free speech on this blog, right? What free speech is allowed in the Islamist paradise known as the Democratic People's Islamic Republic of Iran? Bloggers get jailed for voicing any criticism of the current Murderer-in-Chief, Khamenei. Bloggers get jailed, and IRI cyber groupies blog online defending the murderous regime that jails them. Go figure. There's a name for that: it's called Khomeinism.


vildemose

On Monday, Supreme Leader

by vildemose on

On Monday, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei vowed to deliver a "punch in the mouth" to those who might exercise their right to peaceful dissent today during Iran’s national holiday. But a "punch" is a far cry from the two executions recently carried out for the same reasons.
Don’t let Iran execute any more people for expressing their dissenting views! Today during Iran's Victory of the Revolution Day, when words like "revolution", "independence" and "freedom" are on everyone's lips, fears of torture, repression and death still remain.

The shock is still very much palpable over the two horrific hangings that took place in Iran just weeks ago. The two hanged men became the "fall guys" for the post-Presidential election violence that consumed the streets of Iran last summer. This happened despite the fact that the accused men were nowhere near the widespread demonstrationsthey were already in prison!

Now fear mounts again that 9 more men will hang based on similarly outrageous charges. Help focus Iran's attention on its real problem. Urge Iran to stop the executions!


Jahanshah Javid

Integrity

by Jahanshah Javid on

Jaleh Jan,

All the people you mentioned, have more integrity than you and all those like you combined. You who put your faith and support in the most brutal and hated government Iran has ever seen. You who cheer for a regime that doesn't even consider your gender intelligent enough to be fully human. You make me wonder if they have a point here.


Jaleho

ج ج جان، یک راهنمایی‌ دلسوزانه برای تاریخ انقلاب

Jaleho


من این را در لینک "سخنرانی احمدی‌نژاد" در جواب منوچهر در باره آقای سازگارا نوشتم.  فکر کنم به درد انقلاب بعدی بخورد:

 

"شما خلاصه کلام  را زیبا بیان کردید. ولی‌ تو رو خدا به لینک این آقا که پیش از "انقلاب" دیروز این حرفها را میزد گوش کنید. (//iranian.com/main/2010/feb/tips-22-bahman )

عجیب نیست که دو باره چند روز دیگر   "خاله موشه" و "آقای شپش" و آقای "خر" در همین Iranian.com دستور عمل های همین آقا را برای انقلاب بعدی پست خواهند کرد و هورا خواهند کشید! آنوقت به میلیون‌ها ایرانی‌ اصیل  که حالشان از این احمق‌های ینگه دنیا به هم خورده است اهانت کرده و آن‌ها را "گاو" خطاب میکنند! 

جالب اینجاست که خود فریبی کسانی مثل سازگارا به حدّی است  که بر اساس آن خود فریبی و مردم فریبی، پیش بینی‌‌های آن‌ها هر روز احمقانه تر میشود! آخر شما را چه به شعار دادن در روز قدس، و یا روز عاشورا، و یا روز سالگرد انقلاب...روز‌هایی‌  که برای اکثریت مردم ایران مهم  و با ارزش است ؟! "

این خنگ‌ها نمی‌‌فهمند که بهترین شانس آنها برای شلوغ بازی و تحریک  چند تا بچه از هم تیپ‌های خودشان "Valentine Day" است، نه روز سالگرد انقلاب؟! 


The Phantom Of The Opera

A matter of color

by The Phantom Of The Opera on

This is my question: Is the overlapping gray (or, whatever color as a result of the combination of  green and red) area of the traditional coexistence abating or, expanding?  

The Pahlavis, all mullahs, and all public figures associated with the Green Movement  must disclose the source and the amount of their wealth/income.


Princess

I would be lying

by Princess on

if I didn't admit that my mood is dampened today, but I also know that the status quo cannot be maintained. Neither side can continue like this for long. The issue will have to be resolved sooner of later, and history has consistently proven to side with the people. 

This movement will not give up, because it can not afford to. It has no other choice but to continue the struggle.

Thanks for a realistic reading of yesterday's events. 

 


Anahid Hojjati

Dear JJ, I really did not think IRI will fall on 22 Bahman

by Anahid Hojjati on

 

Dear Jahanshah, conditions were not right for collapse of IRI on 22 Bahman.  Last time that there was a fall of the regime on 22 Bahman, let 's see what the conditions were:

*As early As Aban, schools were faced with students not showing up.I distinctly remember not going to school as form of protest in Aban.

* Oil workers were on strikes.

*Khomeini as hated as he can be by opposition now, was a charismatic leader with clear goals and he was asking clearly for fall of Shah's regime.  Now we have leaders like Moussavi who were leaders of IRI themselves and involved with many crimes such as mass killings in 1988.  Recently I saw one of Khomeini's elamieh's from that time and it was brilliant.  He was clear in his goals and he was using anti imperialism to get people to fight against Shah and that was powerful. 

* Mosques were used all over Iran as places for people to voice their opposition to Shah.

* Hate to say this last one but let's be honest.  Many people in Diaspora are now worried about their investments in Iran and fear of how their families will be treated if they are too active outside Iran.  Diaspora is worried about what will happen to their summer vacations in Iran and to their plans for retiring and moving to Iran.  Last time, many people in Diaspora were dedicated anti Shah forces who were in exile and not at all concerned with their investments/summer vacations/retirement plans, etc. 

In any case, chances are that bahar azadi will not come to Iran before actual spring of 1389. But people will march on and as they say" dir o zood dareh but sokht o sooz nadareh".

 

 


Bahram G

Hope is a fun companion, but a poor guide

by Bahram G on

This is an old saying. We keep on hoping that things would change, that our country frees itself from the predicament that it has been in for the past 31 years. It was hope that got us into this mess in the first place. People hoped that democracy and the rule of the people would change life for the better in Iran, as opposed to a one-man rule that seemed unpalatable to many Iranians.

Well, so some people's hopes were realized on 22 Bahman, and some people's hopes were dashed. There is no question that Ali geda and company got away with their scheme and the majority of the Iranian people's hope was dashed temporarily. It was an extremely lopsided battle. They had all the instruments of power and the people had only their rights as their weapons.

JJ, you are right. I agree with everything you said here and I do applaud you for being a torch-bearer for freedom. The struggle is far from over. Ali geda and that sick Ahmadi and their paid basiji riding on the shoulders of some simpletons had their day. Yet, what has turned the great majority of the people off about this regime is still there, looming more menacingly and disgustingly than ever.

It is sad indeed that this ordeal will have to drag on. Ali geda and Ahmadi psycho and their gang of thugs are intent at ignoring the masses of the long-suffering Iranians. But, the problems are there. They will get compounded with each passing day. And the day of freedom will eventually dawn in our beloved country for those magnificent children of Iran who are still under the boot of tyranny.

JJ, don't get discouraged. Don't get side tracked. We may be disheartened today. Yet, tomorrow is a new day. Tomorrow the march for justice will resume and the people will eventually prevail.


zanboor_ghavi_mannyslawyer

party is over, let's go home bacha, tomorrow you have school

by zanboor_ghavi_mannyslawyer on

The party is over.  All the plans you had that something would come about that would bring a somewhat drastic change in Iran and mostly in your life is officially over.

instead of listening to reason which was Khameni should be replaced but regime stays, JJ got readers' hopes up so much for 22 Bahman- they actually thought the regime would fall.

 

The seriously believe many of the readers are so depressed and hopeless right now because their dream vanished just like that.

JJ should've have set the record straight and should have been more realistic prior to this huge meltdown.

Reckless wagering and betting are never the right thing to do especially when one is in a position of responsibility.

It is one thing when one chooses to risk his own life for the sake of a cause but when one risks the life and youth of others it is not fair.

It is not fair to have encouraged others to take a position against IRI when one knows that by doing so that individual would most likely stay away from IRan for fear of torture upon return and hence lose one of the primordial bonds a human makes when they are born, that is the bond with Mother Land.


ThePope

It was so obvious...

by ThePope on

Of course it was a big success, and the only reason is because the "greens"(!) lacked leadership(plan/strategy). 
But, Shab deraaz o ....  

Personally, I knew this anniversary will be a GREAT success for irI and its [minority] $upporters. And I'm happy that it turned out to be like I predicted, because from now on the [majority] anti-ir/pro-Iran will plan their further steps in small groups, in their own neighborhood in order to act effectively.
The revolting/uprising MUST be spread out...
(can't give more............)
(BTW, Bazaar-e Tehran havaa abri-e,,, be careful & don't buy ... there)

Soon in Tehran; can't wait...

 

 

A special daheh zajr

by ThePope on

I think we're gonna witness the
biggest PRO irI rally/celebration ever on 22 Bahman. Yes, there'll be
some protests too, but nothing comparable to what the regime is
preparing; The mullahs will deploy ALL their stupid [daahaati] $upporters in the streets to prove that the majority are with them.  

The next big uprising = chaahaar-shanbeh soori

(the price of aklil soranj is skyrocketing already)

//iranian.com/main/blog/jahanshah-javid/c...


sobh

I'm afraid, we are moving towards a violence standoff

by sobh on

Dear JJ,

Well said, I agree with all what you wrote. I think before 22 Bahman, the expectations (especially out side of Iran, among exiles) were put too high for this day and many people thought, that people of Iran will topple the regime on 22 Bahman. In fact as you mentioned it will take time to fight these monsters. Let's say they got their party, NOW WHAT? What they want to do with all the miserable economic and political situation? What they want to do in regard to the nuclear standoff? What about the political prisoners? I can go on and on. Before today, I was hopefull that the none-violence movement might be able to bring a positive change, I'm afraid that after 22 Bahman, the country is moving toward a very hard and aggressive turbulence. The Akhoonds that I see, will not give up the power that easy!! They are blood thirsty. People need to organize and use their force very efficiently from now on. People need clear leadership, they need short term tactics and long term goals. Politic is a very complex thing and just having a good Will, will not do it. We need to have cool heads and warm hearts! The opposition groups with all differences, should unite now. Again I think a strong leadership, inside and outside of Iran is very important.


Monda

Helpful reframe JJ

by Monda on

I wonder how those communication blockades resolve in the near future. Vision and hope is all we have to offer... I appreciate reading yours.