US Air Force getting ready?

Balatarin
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Kamangir
by Kamangir
29-Mar-2008
 

It is not my intention to spred rumors. However; when looking at the large picture (Cheney's semi-secret trip to the Middle East, the turmoil in Southern Iraq and several other factors) I've to give credibility to the report below, although the suggested dates may not be accurate, something is in the making. I'm more skeptical of the second case scenario (Iran's retaliation) mainly because the author seems to forget about the US air force presence that could definitely halt an Iranian ground preassure in Iraq. The US air force would be literally free to pound any Iranian military or para-military presence in Iraq. No matter what teh US would still have the upper hand.

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Hill Air Force base in Northern Utah is on intensive night exercise run. Aerial war on Iran imminent?

So much for the "Sound of Freedom" as the sheeple bleats in the message boards and on the news to justify the "horrific", aggressive jet noise buzzing the neighboring cities late at night and in early morning.

I don't believe the local corporate news propaganda cheerfully claiming the weather is to blame for the schedule change in exercise and landing runs. Neither should you.

This is very serious and not typical of a regional Air Force exercise conducted very late at night involving several F-16 jets, etc.

It's common for the air force aerial attacks to occur on New Moon night. Next new moon cycle is April 6.

According to William Lind's 3/26/08 column Operation Cassandra (further below), he states:
[...] The State Department, OSD, the intelligence agencies, the Army, and the Marine Corps are all opposed to war with Iran. Of the armed services, only the Air Force reportedly is in favor, seeking an opportunity to show what air power can do. As always, it neglects to inform the decision-makers what it cannot do.

The purpose of this column is not to warn of an imminent assault on Iran, though personally I think it is coming, and soon. Rather, it is to warn of a possible consequence of such an attack. Let me state it here, again, as plainly as I can: an American attack on Iran could cost us the whole army we now have in Iraq.

Lots of people in Washington are pondering possible consequences of an air and missile assault on Iran, but few if any have thought about this one. The American military's endless "we're the greatest" propaganda has convinced most people that the U.S. armed forces cannot be beaten in the field. They are the last in a long line of armies that could not be beaten, until they were.

Operation Casandra:

//www.lewrockwell.com/lind/lind137.html

by William S. Lind

Admiral Fallon's (forced?) resignation was the last warning we are likely to get of an attack on Iran. It does not mean an attack is certain, but the U.S. could not attack Iran so long as he was the CENTCOM commander. That obstacle is now gone.

Vice President Cheney's Middle East tour is another indicator. According to a report in The American Conservative, on his previous trip Cheney told our allies, including the Saudis, that Bush would attack Iran before the end of his term. If that report was correct, then his current tour might have the purpose of telling them when it is coming.

Here's roughly how it might play out. In response to American air and missile strikes on military targets inside Iran, Iran moves to cut the supply lines coming up from the south through the Persian Gulf (can anyone in the Pentagon guess why it's called that?) and Kuwait on which most U.S. Army units in Iraq depend (the Marines get most of their stuff through Jordan). It does so by hitting shipping in the Gulf, mining key choke points, and destroying the port facilities we depend on, mostly through sabotage. It also hits oil production and export facilities in the Gulf region, as a decoy: we focus most of our response on protecting the oil, not guarding our army’s supply lines.

Simultaneously, Iran activates the Shiite militias to cut the roads that lead from Kuwait to Baghdad. Both the Mahdi Army and the Badr Brigades – the latter now supposedly our allies – enter the war against us with their full strength. Ayatollah Sistani, an Iranian, calls on all Iraqi Shiites to fight the Americans wherever they find them. Instead of fighting the 20% of Iraq's population that is Sunni, we find ourselves battling the 60% that is Shiite. Worse, the Shiites logistics lie directly across those logistics lines coming up from Kuwait.

U.S. Army forces in Iraq begin to run out of supplies, especially POL, of which they consume a vast amount. Once they are largely immobilized by lack of fuel, and the region gets some bad weather that keeps our aircraft grounded or at least blind, Iran sends two to four regular army armor and mech divisions across the border. Their objective is to pocket American forces in and around Baghdad.

The U.S. military in Iraq is all spread out in penny packets fighting insurgents. We have no field army there anymore. We cannot reconcentrate because we're out of gas and Shiite guerrillas control the roads. What units don't get overrun by Iranian armor or Shiite militia end up in the Baghdad Kessel. General Petraeus calls President Bush and repeals the famous words of General Ducrot at Sedan: "Nous sommes dans un pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés." Bush thinks he's overheard Petraeus ordering dinner – as, for Bush, he has.

U.S. Marines in Iraq, who are mostly in Anbar province, are the only force we have left. Their lines of supply and retreat through Jordan are intact. The local Sunnis want to join them in fighting the hated Persians. What do they do at that point? Good question.

How probable is all this? I can't answer that. Unfortunately, the people in Washington who should be able to answer it are not asking it. They need to start doing so, now.

It is imperative that we have an up-to-date plan for dealing with this contingency. That plan must not depend on air power to rescue our army. Air power always promises more than it can deliver.

As I have warned before, every American ground unit in Iraq needs its own plan to get itself out of the country using only its own resources and whatever it can scrounge locally. Retreat to the north, through Kurdistan into Turkey, will be the only alternative open to most U.S. Army units, other than ending up in an Iranian POW camp.

Even if the probability of the above scenario is low, we still need to take it with the utmost seriousness because the consequences would be so vast. If the United States lost the army it has in Iraq, we would never recover from the defeat. It would be another Adrianople, another Manzikert, another Rocroi. Given the many other ways we now resemble Imperial Spain, the last analogy may be the most telling.

I have said all this before, in previous columns and elsewhere. If I sound like Cassandra on this point, remember that events ended up proving her right.

Balatarin
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IRAN IS WEAK

by DEFCON2 (not verified) on Tue Apr 22, 2008 09:55 PM PDT

IRAN IS A WEAK COUNTRY. THEY HAVE THIS HALF MAN HALF DICTATOR THAT IS OUT OF TOUCH WITH REALITY. IF THE AMERICAN MILITARY FACED IMMINENT DEFEAT LIKE THE ABOVE ARTICLE STATED IT WOULD BE REVERSED WITH TACTICAL NUKES IN MINUTES. THE IRANIANS WOULD NEVER INVADE IRAQ AS LONG AS THE AMERICAN MILITARY IS THERE. THEN AGAIN SUICIDE IS IN THERE DOCTRINE WHICH IS GOOD FOR US.


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Bahram the Iranian

thanks

by Bahram the Iranian on Sat Mar 29, 2008 11:57 PM PDT

I thank you for considering me funny, indeed that guy was quiet funny and ridiclous for the lack of better world,indeed many pepole around the world lauaghed at him or with him including myself.of course the ones had most to lauagh were americans you would remeber of that big banner reading"mission accomplished" with the big smile on the face of GW Bush. Now please let me be sorry and ask you if you are seeing any americans laguagh at Iran?since you are out there, are you seeing any body in US smiling when there is talk about mitilary conflict with Iran,Iran may be seen as threat, sponsour of terrorissim, obstacle to the peace in ME, meddiling in Iraq and Lebano and so on and so forth uncle Sam tells us.She defentliy isnt being seen as funny.Good news is, Untill The banner rolls up and all smily chief of invader forces(they dont have to be americans any body) comes out to declare victory over Iran, I will remain funny, hilarious, ridiclous hulisinating........or whatever you wish to call me.


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To: Kamangir (from one story to another)

by Ahmad Bahai (not verified) on Sat Mar 29, 2008 01:21 PM PDT

Since your stories about assessination of Farhangi tunred up to be wrong (he was murdered by a pimp in Spain, not by IRI as you have insisted), now you have started another story. What is wrong with you? You really need psychologist visit, or a hospitalization (psychiatric hospitals are good in USA. they will treat you like a "good boy"!).


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No offense, but Bahram

by Anonymousk (not verified) on Sat Mar 29, 2008 01:07 PM PDT

No offense, but Bahram reminds me of Sadaam's Information Minster, Baghdad Bob. Remember him.

TREASURY OF DEATHLESS QUOTES --

"There are no American infidels in Baghdad. Never!"

"My feelings - as usual - we will slaughter them all"

"Our initial assessment is that they will all die"

"I blame Al-Jazeera - they are marketing for the Americans!"

"God will roast their stomachs in hell at the hands of Iraqis."

"They're coming to surrender or be burned in their tanks."

"No I am not scared, and neither should you be!"

"Be assured. Baghdad is safe, protected"

"Who are in control, they are not in control of anything - they don't even control themselves!"

"We are not afraid of the Americans. Allah has condemned them. They are stupid. They are stupid" (dramatic pause) "and they are condemned."

"The Americans, they always depend on a method what I call ... stupid, silly. All I ask is check yourself. Do not in fact repeat their lies."

"I can say, and I am responsible for what I am saying, that they have
started to commit suicide under the walls of Baghdad. We
will encourage them to commit more suicides quickly."

"I can assure you that those villains will recognize, will discover in appropriate time in the future how stupid they are and how they are pretending things which have never taken place."

"We have destroyed 2 tanks, fighter planes, 2 helicopters and their shovels - We have driven them back."

"The authority of the civil defense ... issued a warning to the civilian population not to pick up any of those pencils because they are booby traps," he said, adding that the British and American forces were "immoral mercenaries" and "war criminals" for such behavior.
"I am not talking about the American people and the British people," he said. "I am talking about those mercenaries. ... They have started throwing those pencils, but they are not pencils, they are booby traps to kill the children."

"We have them surrounded in their tanks"

"The American press is all about lies! All they tell is lies, lies and more lies!"

"I have detailed information about the situation...which completely proves that what they allege are illusions . . . They lie every day."

"Lying is forbidden in Iraq. President Saddam Hussein will tolerate nothing but truthfulness as he is a man of great honor and integrity. Everyone is encouraged to speak freely of the truths evidenced in their eyes and hearts."

"Now even the American command is under siege. We are hitting it from the north, east, south and west. We chase them here and they chase us there. But at the end we are the people who are laying siege to them. And it is not them who are besieging us."

//www.welovetheiraqiinformationminister.com/


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Cheney's media selling the war!

by Kamangir on Sat Mar 29, 2008 12:34 PM PDT


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Re: Bahram the Iranian

by Kamangir on Sat Mar 29, 2008 12:21 PM PDT

US recession: Aerial attacks are not expensive specially bearing in mind that their needed air/sea fleet has physically surrounded Iran.

Iran's military might: Iran has capabilities compared to its neighbours, but these conventional capabilities will be taken out by very intensive and extensive poundings by the US air power.

Oil Prices: Well, that's why Cheney (a real oil businessman ) has been taking trips to the region, specially to Saudia Arabia to agree a huge increase of barrels per day that would cover the gap caused by Iran. Even if Iran manages to halt or close the straight oh Hormuz, temporarily, that's like cutting its own supply. The world wouldn't sell Iran the gas it buys and it own obsolete installations would be knocked off by the US. Iran's military needs gas/oil and without it is doomed.

Israel security: While Iran can cause lots of trouble in Iraq, Israel is not concerned with anything Iran could do. Obsolete missils from Gaza or Southern Lebanon? at the same time US is bashing Iran's infrastructure, Israel will be doing the same in its own region and we already saw that before. Hezbolah and other similar groups there, cannot do much without the financial help of Iran. Once Iran is badly wounded, with its infrustructure and resources flattened, then those little groups around Israel wouldn't be able to perform anything.

Final note:

I think if the US decides to attack, it will use all its might and force to cause the maximum damage to Iran's military and sepah, so as to minimize its possible retaliations.


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Bahram the Iranian

I gotta make this

by Bahram the Iranian on Sat Mar 29, 2008 11:58 AM PDT

I gotta make this quick(runing late for work)

1-oil prices

2-recession in US

3-Iran strong military

4-Iranian influence all over ME

5-fear for Israel


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Bahram the Iranian

the end of illegal state of israel

by Bahram the Iranian on Sat Mar 29, 2008 11:46 AM PDT

I m realistic based on what I saw and what I know, our capability on airforce isnt anything like limited.I mnt going to discuss with u over that the information about iran progress on making the state of art armqment in Iran is widely avialiable u may access them(up to you).THis is an old tactic, they spread the rumors trying to scare pepole off so they live in state of fear and put pressure on goverment, guess what??they already gave up on that, I tell u this with 100% confidence and knowledge that there is absoulty nobody in Iran who would have a fear of american attack. It is like a joke in Iran, we shall nt be intimidated nor fooled by these propagand.


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To: Bahram the Iranian

by Kamangir on Sat Mar 29, 2008 11:23 AM PDT

Dear Bahram

Please be realistic. This won't be a ground war. This is the most powerful air-force, a mighty and very sofisticated arir-force pounding a very large number of targets all over Iran. This would not remove the IRI from power or anything like it, but it would take a very heavy toll on Iran's Pasdaran and army, destroying its limited airforce and its air defences. Without muhc of a protection against constant and heavy bombardments from all sides, the ground forces in Iran are doomed. They may be able to creat havoc and turmoil in Iraq, yes, that's a possibility, but again; this would destroy Iran's infrustraucture besides collateral damages. It's important to take this matter seriously as its consequences are very negative for Iran.

 


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Bahram the Iranian

not to worry

by Bahram the Iranian on Sat Mar 29, 2008 11:03 AM PDT

our brave basijis are 100% ready to give any invader a lesson, They would welcome an attack because It is right time to crush them(whoever they may be)beleive me I know pepole in Iran who told me in case of an attack they will...........just dont worry


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Re: Nadias

by Kamangir on Sat Mar 29, 2008 11:24 AM PDT

I've to cover myself as I've managed to gather a robust opposition group (some of whom very vocal) against myself on this site, although; regarding this specific blog the rumors have been out there for the last couple of years and as you know: Del dicho al hecho hay un buen trecho! 

Anyways; I wish you a great Saturday too!


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Nadias

I knew it.....

by Nadias on Sat Mar 29, 2008 09:28 AM PDT

as soon as I read your beginning sentence that the conspiracy rumors would not be far away. hahaha

Kamangir: "It is not my intention to spred rumors."

 We shall see what the web-site community has to say, that alone is worth keeping an eye on this thread.

Have a great Saturday  Kamangir!

Solh va Doosti (paz a vosotros)

Nadia


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