Every day we are reminded of Iran eminent threat to the region, and to the whole world.. As headlines warn us. “Iran's growing influence in the region”. Or “watch out for Shi'ite Crescent engulfing the region, from E. Saudi Arabia, all the way to Lebanon by way of Iran & Syria. “or Remove Israel from the map”, as quoted from their pathetic president.
The biggest question is, do these Mullahs in Tehran project real force and influence in the region, or like a male turkey, they just bluff their feathers to look much larger then their true size, in an effort to impress the rest of us with its purported military might..
First, lets look at some data about the “Islamic Republic of Iran”?.
Here are few statistics. (Source: CIA Almanac).
Population: 65,875,223 (July 2008 est.)
Age structure:
0-14 years: 22.3% (male 7,548,116/female 7,164,921)
15-64 years: 2.3% (male 24,090,976/female 23,522,861)
65 years and over: 5.4% (male 1,713,533/female 1,834,816) (2008 est.)
Ethnic groups:
Persian 51%, Azeri 24%, Gilaki and Mazandarani 8%, Kurd 7%, Arab 3%, Lur 2%, Baloch 2%, Turkmen 2%, other 1%
Government:
Chiefof state: Supreme Leader Ali Hoseini-KHAMENEI (since 4 June 1989). Prior to his election, no visible knowledge, or experience of international relationship.
GDP - per capita (PPP): $10,600 (2007 est.)
Source of income – 85% from oil.
Oil – production: 4.15 million bbl/day (2006 est.)
Oil – consumption: 1.63 million bbl/day (2006 est.). Only 2.8% of world consumption.
Oil - exports: 2.52 million bbl/day (2006 est.)
Oil – imports: 153,600 bbl/day (2004). Mainly Gasoline and Diesel.
Military Force: from all one can tell, Iranian military forces are of a 3rd rate force with second rate technology. The backbone of it air force is is made up of Vietnam era US made phantoms F-4s. They are no match to the US F-22, F-117, F-18, F14 & F16, and Israel's similar advance planes, and better trained fighter pilots.
International allies: Iran of late, it has been isolated and ostracised by the international community which fears the Mullah's nuclear program,and its intended military purpose. Syria, Hizbollah & Hamas are the only groups which have close military and political relationship with Iran.
Now, let's analyze the data, to see how this regime fares in time of conflict with outside forces.
Minority within a minority: Iran's current leadership is made of Farsi ethnic group. They are only 51% of the total population of this ethnically diverse country. With reported 80% disapproval rating among the population, where these mullah will get their popular support?
Shiites vs. Sunnies : The Mullah's Shi'ite sect of Islam, makes up only 11% or so of the total Muslims in the world. Despite their pretentious mantra of “Islamic unity” with other Muslims in the region, it is a known fact, that Iranians look down at their Arab neighbors, loath and view the Arabs as backward and primitives. A factor which has not escaped the Arab's attention, and one of the reasons for Arab mistrust of the Shiite-Farsi.
The other conflict is the Shiites vs. Sunnies sects, which goes back to 1350 years (who is the rightful successor to Muhammad).
In reality, Iran today is surrounded from all sides with US and other western military forces. With no real and viable allies who share cultural and fundamentalist religious values with the Mullahs, Iran has no one else to rely on support, except on its Farsi sect. These Mullahs can't even trust, nor rely other non-Farsi minorities in the country to come to their aid when needed.
Even groups, or states, such as Syria, Hizbollah & Hamas, those Mullahs have to buy their support with hard cash money. (Iran is reported to have paid over $1B to finance Syria's purchase of Russian anti-aircraft missiles, and pays more then $300M to Hizbollah to keep it alive).
On the diplomatic front. Look at that little akh-mag-e-nejad (aka ahmadinejad). He is considered a burr and backward, even to the Iranians themselves. With his bizarre behavior and pathetic posture, he is a joke in the world arena.
On the internal front, these regime is loathed and despised by 80% of the young population, whom are by far more worldly and sophisticated then their leaders.
It reported that, there are more then 60 opposition groups to this regime. The most insidious and effective one is the dreaded MEK.
At anytime, the west can (and will) stop the flow of refined oil product (Gasoline, Diesel & Lubricant) imported from Kuwait to Iran. Crating a civil unrest in Iran (remember the riots when Gasoline was rationed to 100L a week). At same time, other Gulf Arab states will increase their oil supply to make up any lost shipments from Iran, thus blunt the treat of oil supply shortage.
In lieu of these facts, how these Mullas are going to survive, once a decisions of regime change is made by the west. One would guess, not much.
Stay tune and get ready for showdown with this regime – regime change is on its way, and those Mullahs know it.
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What are your motives?
by Shalom Akhshav (not verified) on Sat Aug 02, 2008 06:07 PM PDT2. Do you belong to a jewish neo conservative group?
There is a small group of Jewish neoconservatives who unsuccessfully tried to get Benjamin Netanyahu to attack Saddam Hussein in the 1990s, and then successfully helped provide the intellectual rationale for George Bush to do it in 2003… Happily, these people represent a very small sliver of the Jewish population in United States…
3. I remain proud of my Jewish heritage, a supporter of Israel…But I am not willing to grant these ideologues the anonymity they seek…I believe there are a small group of Jewish neoconservatives who are pushing for war with Iran because they believe it is in America's long-term interests and because they believe Israel's existence is at stake. They are wrong and recent history tells us they are dangerous. They are also bullies and I'm not going to be intimidated by them.
Question: Are you one of them?
akha-e khar
by Mehdi Mazloom on Sat Aug 02, 2008 05:59 PM PDTNot only khar (how appropriate s/n), but also golah, yaa asb would think and respond the way you replied.
If you still think that Sunnis and shiite will ever settle their mortal differences. Or Arabs will trust the Farsi, then we will have something to agree with.
You wrote:
Money buys everything they all are in the same bed. BTW, did you read
about American Interest Section in Tehran will be open for business
soon?: //www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/jul/16/usa.iran. Money talks Mr. Mazloon!
Interesting. The Mafia has a very famous axiom. "You keep your friends close, and your enemies CLOSER". Americans are not THAT stupid, and US is not about to go the Mullahs way anytime soon.
Best solution for everybody - including the Iranian people themselves is regime change. Let the Iranian elect their own secular government which respect the right of the individual, and most important lead Iran based on the pricipals of ancient Persi and Cyrus the Great.
come back with more convincing reply.
Everything said above is
by Anonymous4 (not verified) on Sat Aug 02, 2008 05:52 PM PDTEverything said above is correct and is a fact. The only thing I know about poilitics is that it's not a 2+2=4 thing. By this I mean by putting facts together one cannot come to a conclusion. There are many more factors to consider. For example, arabs, and in general, people in the region are as confused as Iranian people (they show one thing and are something else in fact). So, it's hard to determine what could be their reaction to any action against Iran. Moreover, politics is about money and power. I thing it's a correct satetement to say that's how it works with US. I think US is also buying allies by money. One more thing, if Mullas see US is determined to change the regime, they may give some free oil to US as well just to shut them down. It's a long story man...
where do you think Zio-Nazis are going?
by Shining Head on Sat Aug 02, 2008 04:58 PM PDTsince you are a zio-nazi lacky you can answer that question...
Neither does....
by Khar on Sat Aug 02, 2008 05:05 PM PDTMonarchists, Rightists, leftist, liberal, conservatives, communists, Mojaheds............... and you say Iran is surrounded!? Well if you believe this crap you are as pathetic of a liar as Mullahs/IRI are in Iran. Let me remind you; Regional adversaries are removed in Afghanistan with Iran's influence is ever growing. Iraqi Government is in the pocket of IRI, and best of all Mr. Mazloon, oil is at $130 a barrel. Money buys everything they all are in the same bed. BTW, did you read about American Interest Section in Tehran will be open for business soon?: //www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/jul/16/usa.iran. Money talks Mr. Mazloon! And do you still think the end of IRI is near, Bubba? I guess you want to replace it with one of the isms that I mentioned above!? Sweet, now would you send some of that hydro stuff that you have been smoking.