The day after the IR falls

Nur-i-Azal
by Nur-i-Azal
06-Feb-2010
 
What do folks anticipate for the day after the IR falls? I know all of us are hopeful for the future of Iran after the mullocracy is history, but so were folks 31 years ago regarding the end of the Pahlavi regime. So what is the general thinking of people as to where we go next on the practical step by step aspects of things? Let's say a provisional government is installed a few days after all the institutions and organs of the Islamic republic collapse. What should be the priority agenda  (or agendas) for this new post-IR provisional government? Also, what can be done about vigilantism and people wishing to take the law into their own hands and settle personal scores with figures of the previous regime?
Balatarin
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Nur-i-Azal

Sargord Pirouz

by Nur-i-Azal on Sun Feb 07, 2010 02:10 PM PST

Can you really imagine the IRGC, the Basij and all the Ahmadinejad
supporters simply changing their minds and deciding to conform to your
imagined end state?

 

Yes. The Shah's apparently invincible military and state apparatus folded like a paper tiger. Of course certain NATO generals of the time and certain foreign media-corporate interests helped that process along. The IRGC, Basij and handful of Ahmadinejad supporters will fold as well. We have plenty of examples of this happening before 1979. It will also happen again here. Besides the bigger they come, the harder they will fall!

The day after is an important question all the same. What happens when the IR National Security Council and VF are no longer in control?  That is the question here.


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oktaby

Shah seemed invincible at the time too, more so than IRR does

by oktaby on Sun Feb 07, 2010 11:18 AM PST

However, the broad hatred and discontent of IRR has more logical, visceral and experience based foundation minus the fractional religious/extremist zealots that form their support base. Once the coming economic woes that make the current problems look like child's play by comparison set in, even China & Russian support with all the hezbolah & basiji on the street won't make a difference. The question is not whether IRR will be gone but whether they will go at the end of the ongoing process and uprising, or will they fortify themselves for 2-4 more years by creating another North Korea style state, which by all indications they have started already. The latter simply means the peaceful uprising will become an armed struggle and that won't be something this regime or any other will be able to manage because it will be both at general level as well as various ethnicities.

As for the day after, that is the wrong way to look at this. This is a process not an event. There are many ongoing activities most of which are neither news items or widely advertised, that address now, during and after in a systematic manner. Those forces & ideas have started to come together.

OKtaby


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Sargord Pirouz

The question is not

by Sargord Pirouz on Sun Feb 07, 2010 03:04 AM PST

The question is not envisioning the day after. The real question is how on earth do you imagine it actually falling? 

Can you really imagine the IRGC, the Basij and all the Ahmadinejad supporters simply changing their minds and deciding to conform to your imagined end state?

You're being dishonest with yourself. Get real for a moment! Answer the question as to exactly how this all comes about. Can you answer it honestly? If you can, you would be the first I've come across.


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