Why the IRI Cannot be Reformed: A Comparative Look

Balatarin
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Onlyiran
by Onlyiran
24-May-2010
 

I was reading this piece in Foreign Policy about Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood, and I could not get pass the similarities between its attempts at “reform” in Egypt and what is being advocated as the best approach of ridding Iran of the IRI dictatorship.  First, let’s make one thing clear: I am no fan of the Muslim Brotherhood or any other nutty, Islamist suicide cult and do not wish them success in anything.  But as the piece suggests, the Brotherhood gave up its violent tactics-at least for the most parts—in the 1970’s and 1980’s and tries to win over supporters, and change Egypt’s dictatorial system, through political means, in other words, by “reforming” it.  As the piece suggests, that effort has failed.  In fact, after almost three decades of Brotherhood’s attempts at ‘reform from within” the Mubarak government has now decided to even ban the Brotherhood from running in the elections for the upper house of Egypt’s parliament. 

The reason for this failure is simple.  One cannot “reform” dictatorships.  Dictatorships, by definition, are one man (or one group as in the IRI) rule.  They set the rules and the laws.  One has to play by their rules, and those rules are set up to keep the dictatorship in power. 

The same dynamic is in play in Iran.  Just like Mubarak’s Egypt, the IRI, as a dictatorship, sets its rules.  It has various mechanisms in place to prevent “reform” from happening.  On one level, it can disqualify candidates from running in elections, on another level, it can intimidate them, and on the next level, if all fails, it can reject anything they pass with the “Guardian Council” and / or Velayat-e Faghih’s absolute veto power.  That is why there is absolutely no chance of any significant “reform” in Iran while the IRI is in power.

Moreover, as the events of the last year have shown, attempts at “reform” can be crushed in a dictatorship at the whim of the dictator, setting back the efforts significantly, and essentially sending it back to “square one”. Egypt’s recent attempt at blocking the Brotherhood from the upper house of parliament is another example of this phenomenon.

For a “reform” movement to be successful, there must be democratic mechanisms in place where the “reformists” can have a fair shake in changing policy and laws through a neutral system with neutral overseers and checks and balances.  No such system exists in today’s Iran, and that is why “reforming the IRI’ is more of a wish list and naïve fantasy than anything else.  In fact, I would go even one step further and call it a ploy by the IRI to send those in hope of reform in search of the proverbial “nokhod siah”.

IRI, as a gun toting dictatorship that it is, will never be reformed.  The IRI mafia is intoxicated with power and money and it will be laughable to think that the IRGC will simply allow a bunch of pro-democracy 20-somethings reform the system in a way that will take power away from them and those who feed them.  If there was any chance for reforming the IRI, we would have seen it by now.  Thirty one years on, and the IRI is just as brutal as ever.  It still tortures, rapes, jails and hangs opponents.  Even the lack of the most basic of social freedoms, such as the right to choosing one’s attire, is still as it was thirty one years ago.

Unfortunately, by its nature, the IRI has only left the Iranian people with two options.  The first option is a violent revolution and the second one is some kind of a military coup from within its own apparatus by a group of IRGC officers who may become disenchanted with what they see of the regime (highly unlikely).  Other than that, the IRI will remain as it has always been: a petty, brutal and oppressive dictatorship.

Balatarin
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oktaby

I don't like the comparison of brotherhood with Iran

by oktaby on Mon May 24, 2010 03:10 PM PDT

democracy movement but appreciate the underlying point. As you mentioned MB is not something to sympathize (khomeini's role model Nuri is from same general dump) with, nor is Hosni.

Existence of plain clothes militia means IRR is a criminal gang which means force is its ideology, politics, means and end. COP's point is valid that this gang bribes everyone to stay in power so there is little external drive to ged rid of it. Exception being the changing dynamics of China-U.S. powerplay even though they are both beneficiaries. The disparity and increasing poverty is just another tool of control. remember in a country where government's main source of income is Oil not taxes, people don't get to say or ask much. And in a theology criminal conduct is blessed by god. IRR has pavlovian conditioning to use violence & force because it has always paid off starting with the devolution to ongoing rape and murders and welcoming of Bakhtiar's murderer as a hero. It is their MO, and so far, key to their survival.

It will have to be a violent revolution or a war. Both will be massively bloody and dangerous to Iran's territorial integrity and that may well be the ultimate gift of islamic tyranny and IRR. In first case we know this regime will kill. In the second, I don't want to contemplate; even though it is just another  tool for IRR and with increasing pressure,  useful in totally destroying any opposition to 'evolve' to dream state of islam-istan (there are news of activity at Hormuz) so war's first fan is IRR as displayed by their flaunting. Empty as it may turn out to be. That is also an outcome that while not necessary desirable for China & Russia, can be milked beautifully by both.

However, neither is justification for allowing this criminal enterprise to continue or 'evolve' as some pipe dreams suggest, because when the chips are down what is at mortal risk is the very idea of Iran.

Nationalist, are the only and viable option and most likely to gain a majority national following very quickly. The challenge is organizing but do not assume it is not happening.

OKtaby


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vildemose

Questions underlying this

by vildemose on Mon May 24, 2010 12:29 PM PDT

Questions underlying this debate:  First, is the Islamic Republic of Iran as a form of government, reformable?  Second, if it is reformable, what are the indications to support this notion?  Is the Islamic Republic of Iran as a form of government reformable?  I would argue that this is an impossibility.  The narrow definition of the Islamic Republic holds within it the precedence of a particular ideology, namely Khomeini's version of  shia Islam, over republic. Can this ideology be reformed? Are sharia laws reformable? Is the IRI constitution reformable?NO and NO and NO.

 


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Onlyiran

Sag & COP

by Onlyiran on Mon May 24, 2010 12:23 PM PDT

COP: Very true.  The Brotherhood will never have IRI's usefulness to the U.S., UK, Russia, China and Israel.  The IRI is the best thing that has happened to every Tom, Dimitri, Xian Hao and Moshe in the world.  

Sag: I do not believe that these guys will get anywhere to begin with.  What did Khatami, who was bigger and better than them, bring us during his eight years? Jack squat! 


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by sag koochooloo on Tue Aug 10, 2010 01:18 PM PDT

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Cost-of-Progress

Bottom Line

by Cost-of-Progress on Mon May 24, 2010 11:46 AM PDT

" The IRI mafia is intoxicated with power and money and it will be laughable to think that the IRGC will simply allow a bunch of pro-democracy 20-somethings reform the system......"

Well said!

I also submit that perhaps another reason, in addition to your assessment, for the failure of the "Brotherhood" in Egypt is that there's no outside entity interested in this reform; interested for it to succeed. There's no reason for the great powers to unseat the exisitng regime in Egypt - unlike the preceeding events that prepared the scenes for the 1979 Islamic takeover in Iran.

I am afraid that you are correct in your prediction as to what it would take for the regime to topple in Iran. The social and economic disparity in Iran is now much greater than when Shah was in power. A large layer of the then middle class has been forced out of that classification into a far lower economic class. However, the level which was considered low class (both economically and socially) has taken form in the middle to upper middle class echelon in the Iranian society now. My guess however is that the pressurecooker we now see as Iran will someday be overpressurized and would explode. What entity, what group and what system will replace it is totaly unknown - at least for the common Iranian.  More important is when that overpressurization might occur? Force and intimidation can only go so far as the means to maintain a political "system".

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IRAN FIRST

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