Sargord Pirouz

salam bar Niloufar aziz

Yeah, "predicting" revolution is an asinine thing to do, that's why I (and I guess Sargord) find it funny when so many people every year predict a revolution which overthrows IRI ;-)I mean, that Mohsen Sazegara can't see that he is like a clown, predicting and (directing in his feeble mind) a revolution every few months?!! And when his prediction fails this month, he goes right ahead with another one the following month :-)

But you know my views, and from Sargord's former blog on "velevt revolution" I guess he has a similar opinion as mine (at least it seems to me in that particular regard). I once wrote this as a comment in a Hamid Dabashi piece, that he can be a good writer about historical events and upheavals so far as it is far and removed from him in space-time. That is, I like his writings about places other than Iran, and even about Iran I like his writing when it is for event prior to the revolution, and as he gets closer in time-frame, his vision get more and more cloudy!!

I believe a lot of intelligent and fair minded Iranians who stand for the right of deprived people, like your self, fall in the general category that I describe Dabashi. That is, the more "present" events in Iran is too dear and near to their heart such that it distorts their judgement.

Thus, a person like you most probably is very much close to my type of opinion when it comes to Palestinian issues, or the Orange revolution in Ukraine. But, you don't find the situation in Iran similar to the imposed Orange revolution in Ukraine, I see it every bit the same, with all the money that the west has poured in it and all the digital propaganda for it. I see it in that context and if you look at my blog much before the election, you'll see my conviction on why the time for that kind of western meddling is over and that kind of "revolution" is doomed to fail.

I don't know where Sargord is standing, but I find his writings very clear, logical, and realistic. I hope he comes and clears his point of view better for you.

As always, it is good to see you.

Niloufar Parsi: I think it is clear what he stands for

He is asking for a more realistic approch and representation of the scene. He is saying most people here are so prejudiced and emotional that their predictions are way off; that their assessments are unrealistic and will fail. He is saying we need to be more truthful with ourself and stop exaggerating and lying and making up stories and misrepresnt things and ignore facts and statistics, if we ever hope to be correct in our assesments.

Kharmagas

We can have a rational discussion on the points you made in your last comment. If you continue to make valid arguments rather than calling Hezbol Parasites who cheer for Khamenei and Khomeini "patriotic"; you will receive better responses.

I agree with some of the points you made in your last comment. Yes, Power indeed corrupts and if we were to replace the current permanent rulers with any other kind of permanent rulers be it secular or religious, we wouldn't get any better results. But, there is something that you are missing here that I am afraid stems from the same kind of "estebdadi" culture that many older Iranians are inflicted with. 

It's very important to understand that the Green Movement is not fighting to replace the current leaders with their own leaders. Iranian Youth don't follow a "moghadas" leader but rather a set of democratic principles. Rather than fighting to replace old rulers with new "better" rulers, they are fighting to replace the old totalitarian system with a new secular democratic system, where there is a referendum to replace the whole body of government every four years, hence minimizing the looting and corruption.

Personally I don't believe in the concept of "benevolent dictator" and believe that anyone who's given absolute power eventually, one way or another becomes corrupted. Hence the only way to have a working government with the least amount of corruption, as already seen in most western counties, is to have a secular republic where the whole system of governance is challenged by the people after a couple of years and politicians are always vary of future elections. That is what keeps them in check, the fear of not getting elected and not their benevolence.

By the way, I have been fighting this regime since I was a teenager; I was in Iran during the June election and participated in the protests, I was also a teenager during the 18 Tir unrest and was in the enghelab street chanting marg bar Khamenei, and there is nothing I won't do to save my hamvatans ... now thats patriotic ;).

jaleh jan

chetori?!

aziz, i have to say that all this 'prediction' lark is a bit unfair. who on earth can predict revolutions with any degree of accuracy? that would be more like a planned handover with agreed timelines rather than a revolution!

now i know you have stated your support for greater freedom and secularism in iran many times. but our sargord here is not saying what he stands for other than 'exposing' whatever or whoever he is exposing. to me his act looks more like mere debunking (which is not all that constructive) or even a perfomance for some external observer than a statement of a certain position. perhaps he just loves theocracies. i am curious to know what our sargord stands for. can u help clarify since he won't?!

Louie

i just can't believe it. i have to hear it from sargord. my guess is he is for reforms on some level but he is afraid of admitting it because he thinks he is being monitored :)

replacing the existing looters? (to Pahlevan)

I don't think you got my point. I am much more aware of the blunders of IRI than you can imagine, I am also much more aware of the corruptions of all factions of IRI than you can imagine. I am very aware of the Molla (Karroubis, Rafsanjanis, Khameneis, ...) looting that got started only days after the victory (of revolution), and the looting that is going on right now .... However, I don't believe the solution to these problems is introduction of new breed of looters and Chalabi like charlatans that likes of you knowingly or unknowingly support or are part of. ..... you want to replace them go work for it, keyboard fighting alone is not going to cut it, no matter to what extent  you exert yourself Pahlevan!

Sargord, great blog yet again :-)

But, if you think that this will make Iranian.comers feel a certain sense of REALITY, you're wrong.

Also, I have been trying to extract one prediction from this crowd to make them reflect upon their own wrong sense of reality. It is another futile attempt, let me give you an example:

Before the election, I wrote few blogs, about some of my feelings about what is to come; bravely I must add, because the hopes and hype was high then. I was having opposite opinion than most people here, and I was massacred by them.  Of course when I said "Iranians WON" and I explained in many ways what I exactly mean by that (a HUGE TURN OUT being a most concrete measure of it), Iranian.comers consider that a "failed prediction," because for them "Iranians WON" meant Karroubi or Mousavi would become president!! In fact, they were writing blogs about "Here comes president Mousavi" :-) : ) So much for subjective predictions of nature of "WIN".

BUT, we had a chance to a very concrete prediction "who will become president?" and I wrote "Ahmadinejad" despite the complete opposite feeling on the site. Again they consider this prediction "incorrect," why? Because they argue that Ahmadinejad "cheated" So with this kinda crowd what kind of "prediction do you suppose you can get, forget about reasonable subjective predictions, they refuse to accept the most concrete objective results!! 

Most people here are the ones who probably DID swear to the demise of IRI at the time of every one of the articles you provided, hahaha!

I predict!

I love Ahmadinejad and others but it is an unfortunate fact that the whole concept of Islamic will lose its color in Iran about 35 years. So I would say in the year 2045, I would say sometime in May, the regime will collapse and will change its name/character to something less religious - possibly Rajavi's son will take over - hehe.

Dear Fair

"The question is not whether or not the predictions of the IRI's demise are well founded or not, but rather why you waffen SS major and other cronies of the IRI have the gall to stand up against your people, and defend the rapists, torturers, murderers, and criminals who maim the Iranian people, who do not even spare grieving mothers from their wrath, who steal the dead bodies of their victims, who rape the girls they arrest, and who ban the speeches of their own founder out of fear. To call the shear rage of the people an "undercurrent" and the criminal response to it "law enforcement" is to betray your own people and is just downright ludicrous and criminal.

And the answer to this question is simple- you and people like you are fascist traitors, have no honor and no country. You should all just move to Palestine and change your citizenship. Shame on you and all other traitors of Iran who turn your spineless back against the Iranian people."

I always appreciate your insightful and perceptive comments ... very well said, thank you.

Niloufar

The above photo should give you the hint.

sargord

are you saying that you wish for iran to remain an autocratic theocracy indefinitely?

magasak, why am I not suprised by your comment?

مگسک، فکر کنم منظورت از وطن پرست، آخوند پرست باشه نه؟ چون از امثاله شما بسیجیها ضدایرانی تر وجود نداره. حالا هی واسه هم کارت تبریک بفرستین؛ تو از اون تعریف کن و اونم از تو تعریف کنه که ما هم اینجا به این مضحکه ای که راه  انداختین بخندیم.

ضمناً منظورت از "سبز"، این ۴۰-۵۰ میلیون ایرانی که هی میریزن تو خیابون و شعار "استقلال آزادی جمهوری ایرانی" و "مرگ بر خامنه ای" و "مرگ بر اصل ولایت فقیه" و غیره میدن که نمی تونه باشه؟ چون اینا همونایی هستن که می خوان اربابهای عمامه به سر تو و کیو رو سرنگون کنن. فکر کنم منظورت از سبز، این بسیجیهای جان برکف هستن که از بس پاهایه "مبارک" آخوندا رو ماچ می کنن صورتهاشون هی سبز می شه و باید برن مصتراح ... که خوب در این صورت به کار بردن واژه ی سبز خیلی دقیق نیست، چون میدونی این آخوندا زیاد به نظافت اهمیت نمیدن و لای انگشتهای پاهاشون کلی چرک و کثافت هست؛ و این بسیجیهای جان بر کف وقتی پاهایه "مبارک" رو ماچ می کنن، درسته اول سبز   می شن، ولی در نهایت رنگ صورتشون بیشتر به بنفش میزنه تا سبز (از قدیم گفتن، نا برده رنج دلاره نفتی میسر نمی شود). می دونم خیلی دوست داری این جان برکفان بنفش (progressive purples) رو کار بمونن، ولی شرمنده، چشم من یکی که آب نمی خوره.

زیاد خودت رو نگرانه زور زدنه من هم نکن،  که اگه جا نشه با پاشنه کش جاش می ندازم ... LMAO

How about making your own predictions?

Now I know there's a lot of anti-IRI cheerleaders here at IC- that's a given. To all of you, I have one BIG QUESTION:

Predict for me the month and year you feel the IRI will implode, self-destruct or be supplanted by a new form of un-Islamic government- what ever form that may be.

The month and the year. 

This should prove an interesting exercise, as all the predictions cited above did not come true. And I'm arguing yours won't either.

So have at it. Put your prediction down in writing. And in the coming months we'll see how you did, just like the so-called "experts" and exiled "authorities" cited above. 

جناب آقای هزینه پیشرفت

لعنت بر کسی‌ که چش نداره حرف یه آدم دهاتی رو ببینه. اومدیم به شما پند بدیم، و سانسور شدیم. دستم به آنها برسه خودم با انگشتم چشاشون رو سانسور می‌کنم. به هر حال، اولندش، آقای محترم این که متعجب شودی که چه جوری کنیز حاج باقر طرفداری قاتلان ولایت فقیر رو میکنه نگران نباش. اینا همشون یه مشت شکم گنده کچل هستن که با ته ریششون پشت رایانه نشستن و با اسم زری و پری و پوردخت میخوان بگن که حتی زنها هم مردهٔ این ولایت فقیر هستن. دومندش، چه شاهی‌ چه حزب اللهی، تو این سایت باید به اسم چن نفر بیای وسط میدون داد و بیداد کنی‌ عینهو پشه‌یی که مست میکنه میره کنار کارخونه پیف پاف عربده کشی‌ کنه. آخرندش، بیخودی خونت رو کثیف نکن، دو زاری اینا با حرف تو آنتن نمیخوره. اینا همون هایی هستن که با چن چق آبجی شون رو تو دبی میفروشن.

COP

I did not flag your comment. In fact I have never flagged, and I will never flag any comment. You can check with JJ .....

Islamic Fuehrer:Opponents will be destroyed

Waffen SS major brags about how all "western" predictions of IRI's demise have been wrong. Well here is the main reason these predictions were wrong:

//www.bbc.co.uk/persian/iran/2009/12/091213_o...

This is the language used by the Islamic Fuehrer, who has absolute power in Iran. He has said openly that the opponents will be destroyed. Of course, fascists like waffen SS major call this "law enforcement" like in France or the US.

Yes, the secret to IRI's survival is a very simple one: sheer brutality, and have no shame or hesitation to DESTROY anyone who opposes you. Not jail them. Not warn them. Not fire them. Not exile them. DESTROY them.

And all the pundits in these last 30 years who have wrongly predicted, completely underestimate the brutality and disgrace that these criminal fascists would resort to.

And today, agents like waffen SS major still have the gall to defend this and betray the Iranian people.

-Fair

Waffen SS major and "reality check"

The bigger "reality check" here is for pro IRI cheerleaders who advocate the continuation of rape of their people- i.e. waffen SS major and other fascists.

If you think just because many western media have been advocating the demise of the IRI for 30 years and it hasn't happened yet, that the IRI will just continue, you have your head in a very dark place where the sun doesn't shine, and have a very false sense of security. There is little doubt that the internal threat to the regime today is larger than ever, and the regime has isolated itself from the Iranian population more than ever today. But you just go ahead, keep feeling secure.

The outcome of this saga has a lot to do with the decisions of the IRI leadership. If they yield to the demands of the people, and AN resigns and there is a fair re-election, and a significant structural reform in which the Islamic fuehrer gets effectively eliminated and his fascist powers removed, they have some chance of survival. If you believe that this is possible, then the demise of the IRI is preventable. I will leave it to the readers and the Iranian people to predict if the leadership will make such compromises.

The question is not whether or not the predictions of the IRI's demise are well founded or not, but rather why you waffen SS major and other cronies of the IRI have the gall to stand up against your people, and defend the rapists, torturers, murderers, and criminals who maim the Iranian people, who do not even spare grieving mothers from their wrath, who steal the dead bodies of their victims, who rape the girls they arrest, and who ban the speeches of their own founder out of fear. To call the shear rage of the people an "undercurrent" and the criminal response to it "law enforcement" is to betray your own people and is just downright ludicrous and criminal.

And the answer to this question is simple- you and people like you are fascist traitors, have no honor and no country. You should all just move to Palestine and change your citizenship. Shame on you and all other traitors of Iran who turn your spineless back against the Iranian people.

-Fair

Sargord

the regime's death this year or 40 yrs from now be damned. The point u I.R.I. supporters fail to understand is that this regime, like North Korea, is in place NOT BECAUSE THE VAST MAJORITY ARE LOYAL CITIZENS but because the ARMED MINORITY- ansaar hizbullah, basij and the revolutionary guards are holding the masses back with their guns, electric sticks, and death camp prisons.  Take away their weapons and then see how long this beloved government lasts !!!! 

You are entitled to your opinion

But I don't take kindly to insults specially when I don't hand them out first! 

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IRAN FIRST

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i took a minute

and still would say that you overreacted. u may want to consider editing your own comment, but i really do Not want to get into this any further.

Actually, compared to some posters here Sargord

is a "moderate" - oh my...could he be a reformist?  

Funny, there are supposedly some female sympathizers too. That, I cannot figure out. Why would you identify with your opressor?  Stockholm Syndrom?

NAH....

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IRAN FIRST

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Wait a minute while I puke..

Kindly look at Q's reply prior to my reply from before and determine if my reply is appropriate or not. I am sure you'll be objective (sure). Everyhting in that reply is well-deserved as I never draw the first blood (so to speak).

You are all the same..... congratualting each other on your great posts and little Islamic humor...

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IRAN FIRST

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Dear CoP, some 411 on tahgord dirouz

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DEAR i.com censor, please advise why you would delete this!

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Tahgord Dirouz lives in the U.S. while he tries to create an impression that he lives in the U.K.

His day job is janitorial in a large synagogue in a LA suburb.  But at nights, he wears his military outfit which he has bought from "Good Will' second hand store, brings out his plastic dolls and pretends to be a general. 

Please indulge him and let him comment on military issues.  Besides Ajax, Comet and mops he has other expertise in his mind. 

marhoum kharmagas aziz

u need a shorter name! takes so long to type! if u don't like 'parviz' (which was meant as a witty equivalent to magas btw), then u could try 'shahid' instead of 'marhoum' next time!

i had not noticed COP's comment as i do not read him usually. it is truly foul. yuk! did u have to make me read it?!

Niloufar jaan

When I take a break from cache fusion, or memory latch contention issues,...., I like to come here and feed on the comments of many of these fossilized exiles, Kharmagass is therefore the most appropriate name for me. Look at COP's last comment and tell me if I am wrong.

sargord

i take your point. there is far too much jingoism by some.

i also take your silence on my second question as indicative of your recognition that change may in fact be coming, however gradual. i suspect you may be a supporter of greater freedom or even secularism in iran.

progressive greens (to Pahlevan)

Jenaabe Pahlevan, despite our differences, including huge ideological differences, I consider Q a patriotic progressive green. Furthermore I consider progressive greens the best/sanest political force at this juncture.

BTW Pahlevan, take care, va Kheyly ham zour nazan, ...., ziresh *****!

bravo Sargord Pirouz

THANKS for the reality check. I think it is all copasetic here in

the magic kingdom where the up is down and ....

NP

What is the intent of this exercise? says NP. I'm glad you asked.

The intent is to put everyone's feet back on the ground. How many posts and comments here at IC are posited in the belief that the demise of the IRI is imminent? Answer: the vast majority. This is completely unrealistic, as these many media citations over the past 30 years will attest to.

The message is get real, everybody. 

Yes, an undercurrent of dissent can be discerned today inside Iran. That's a norm in many countries today. It was definitely a norm in the US forty years ago. It was a norm in France during the last decade. Venezuela has an even larger level of discontent than Iran, yet its government is stable with a credible popular majority.

My advice is not to let one's personal feelings get the best of them. Take a more objective and holistic approach to what's taking place in Iran today. And learn from all the past claims that did not pan out as predicted by the chorus of experts and exiled "authorities". (see above)

Professor Augustus Norton recently posted on his blog the significance of Iran's security services in distinguishing one of the many differences between today's Iran and that of 1979. I suggest the many anti-IRI cheerleaders ponder that difference-among many- before jumping up and down in fits of inappropriate triumphalism. The undercurrent inside iran is going to go on for a long time, and the odds of eventual reform- an eventuality that is far from certain- is nevertheless a more likely outcome than those posited by the many subversives here, on this thread, and elsewhere at IC.

These are the facts of life, people. Get used to it. Next month will just be more of the same. Then it will be the next event to hijack, and so on and so on. It becomes the norm, and not much more. Meanwhile, people still go to work, government remains functional, while security services intensify their efforts and the criminal justice system applies itself to current conditions.

Any questions? (other than name calling, false accusations or wild fantasy scenarios)

Sargord

What is your point really? look at Iran's history in the 20th century (let's not talk about its instability before that). How many revolutions, riots and upheavals can you count? in the absence of any democratic stability, and regardless of what the clueless 'pundits' claim, what is so unusual or unreasonable about expecting another change in iran?

Q: loved your hilarious response to magas!

magas: a suggestion in case you have to change your ID again: how about 'parviz'?!