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Iran 'could make nuclear bomb within 10 months' - Telegraph

Iran could produce enough weapons-grade uranium to make an atom bomb within two to four months and then would need an additional eight to 10 months to build the device, experts said on Monday. This news is several months old and for the past few years we keep hearing Iran is only months away from making a bomb. They are after it for sure, because they are developing the know how, but really the donkeys running the IRI can't even produce electricity and this is des ... Continue reading »

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sayyad.shaer

Sayyad Sha'er visit: www.sayyadshaer.com

More steaming k-sesher delivered fresh from the Western media kitchen. Iran uses motorcycles for gods sake as armored vehicles, and doesn't even take care to give them a camouflage paint job. They make wooden models of Abrams tanks and pose them as the new "Zulfaqar" MBT. And they are months away from a nuclear ICBM?

amirparvizforsecularmonarchy

amirparvizforsecularmonarchy I Love Waterfalls and Find One of the most humorous things in the world; is the notion that Americans are a greater force for good & more civilized than Nazi's, Mullahs and Communists.

I asked him "how many years",
"precisely how many" he asked,
I said "yes as close as you can estimate",
"never, not even in 50 years can the IRI make a bomb", that is my honest assessment.

"Well if that's true its makes it even more obvious why the USA loves the IRI for Iran, no Dr"
"Yes for anyone that knows basic political science, it's very clear" he said,

One wonders what the game really is, the West really thinks the mullahs aren't bad enough and want to help impose worse????

Poor Consensus of Iranians living in Iran,
with all their idiotic false pride of "We can do better than the shahs Team". the stupid Point of view that literally gave rise to a revolution, lol,
Until they show painful regret for betraying the late shah and admitting he was a great Iranian leader and the best option for the future of Iran, how can they really wish for their lives to improve?

Mistakes not learned from are the cause of Iranians suffering, and the reason anti-secular mullahs are still in power, I wonder how many understand enough about political science to realize this???? How long will it all take for that number to double? No intelligent, honest, wise Iranian will risk their life to come to the rescue those inside Iran, from US/Uk/French Domination and use of their thugs.

No Loyalty or Honesty towards the King like the last generation, no reason for hope. Iranians are stuck in a catch 22 made by others in the so-called Free Media in the West, the main examples are "the shah was a dictator and savak tortured and repression was excessive", but to be fair these deadly deceits today are kept in place by Iranians themselves.

sayyad.shaer

Sayyad Sha'er visit: www.sayyadshaer.com

I don't know about SAVAK, but on an ascending scale of 1-10 of brutality, I'd rate the Shah as maybe 4, a mild dictator. The media does tend to make him out to be more brutal than he really was. He was insecure, yes, and had a lot of enemies, yes. But he left Iran when he had the option to stay like Assad is doing now and kill as many he can to remain in power. That, he chose not to do. I don't think it makes him a monolith or an idol to be praised, but he doesn't deserve half the vilification he gets.

amirparvizforsecularmonarchy

amirparvizforsecularmonarchy I Love Waterfalls and Find One of the most humorous things in the world; is the notion that Americans are a greater force for good & more civilized than Nazi's, Mullahs and Communists.

Funny world we live in, consider what the late shah did out of a labor of love for iranians and what he got for it.

Then consider what the owner of this who is worth 8.7 Billion did for Russians and what he got for it. http://www.superyachts.com/motor-yacht-4349/eclipse-photos.htm

On one channel we have playboy on another we have a mullah telling us how to pee, LOL

amirparvizforsecularmonarchy

amirparvizforsecularmonarchy I Love Waterfalls and Find One of the most humorous things in the world; is the notion that Americans are a greater force for good & more civilized than Nazi's, Mullahs and Communists.

If I were putting him on a scale relative to other western leaders, leading the USA/UK/France/Israel If on a scale out of 10 being the most tyranical, if western leaders average a 7, for me the late shah would come closer to a 0, because he never exercised absolute power or broke the law.

amirparvizforsecularmonarchy

amirparvizforsecularmonarchy I Love Waterfalls and Find One of the most humorous things in the world; is the notion that Americans are a greater force for good & more civilized than Nazi's, Mullahs and Communists.

I doubt that, knowing a lot about Savak.

I agree with the former head of Savak, who is vilified by the IRI after having published a book recently on Iran during the shahs time. Having spoken with Savaki's, I believe that Jimmy Carters concern for human rights was just used as a trap to fool and enslave Iranians.

It also doesn't surprise me that with all the tight human controls in place to prevent torture or crime, that he and none of the people who he worked with on a daily basis knew of any cases of torture in Savak, not a single case.

On the Shah's character it's obvious that Peace was his #1 Ideal which he lived for and dedicated his life to.

AnonymousObserver

Anonymous Observer

I actually believe that the IR is motivated to build a nuke BECAUSE of its outdated military. It sees itself outgunned by the superior militaries that surround it, including those of the U.S., Pakistan, Turkey, Israel and even the advanced weapons of the Arab states in the Persian Gulf. It wants a deterrent.

sayyad.shaer

Sayyad Sha'er visit: www.sayyadshaer.com

What I meant earlier by farce is the whole insistence by media that Iran is "this close" to building a bomb. Iran still has several years at this rate and this isn't factoring in things that can go wrong. They do want nukes- the regime that is- but the prospects of them actually getting nukes before something happens are low.

sayyad.shaer

Sayyad Sha'er visit: www.sayyadshaer.com

According to many military analysts, yes. I actually believe that, too. Whether they are anywhere close is another matter. With the stop-go-stop-go nature of the nuclear program and its current level of enrichment (forget Bibi's diagram), Iran still has a long way to go. They won't get a bomb most likely, and if they do, it will be one or two, maybe twenty, but not enough to save the regime.

AnonymousObserver

Anonymous Observer

You raise some good points here. I agree that there's some degree of media embellishment. Media always wants sensationalism, and saying Iran will build a bomb in ten months is much more sexy than saying it will build a bomb in five years. Most credible military analysts, even in Israel, don't believe Iran is that close, or even capable of, having a nuke in ten months. But I really believe they're after a nuke. That's I believe is the ultimate plan.

amirparvizforsecularmonarchy

amirparvizforsecularmonarchy I Love Waterfalls and Find One of the most humorous things in the world; is the notion that Americans are a greater force for good & more civilized than Nazi's, Mullahs and Communists.

True and they might get it if others sell them each component of the technology otherwise its impossible for them to figure it out with what they have in place as far as people, the new 2nd generation centrifuges for example they have, the IRI did not develop, they bought the technology to make it themselves. And if they buy nuclear detonation technology and a bunch of other parts eventually they may get one, but in that case many countries in the world had to pitch in for them to have the know how to make a bomb and key scientists would have not been Iranian also.

sayyad.shaer

Sayyad Sha'er visit: www.sayyadshaer.com

Kind of like how A.Q. Khan and his network fathered the Pakistani bomb. You know despite calling it an indigenous Pakistani bomb, it was largely acquired in bits and pieces and blueprints from the black market...

amirparvizforsecularmonarchy

amirparvizforsecularmonarchy I Love Waterfalls and Find One of the most humorous things in the world; is the notion that Americans are a greater force for good & more civilized than Nazi's, Mullahs and Communists.

Right now IRI has no ones help for most of the tough steps, so potentially it a single bomb could never happen.

amirparvizforsecularmonarchy

amirparvizforsecularmonarchy I Love Waterfalls and Find One of the most humorous things in the world; is the notion that Americans are a greater force for good & more civilized than Nazi's, Mullahs and Communists.

No, I asked an expert about this whole nuclear thing, he said A Q Khan actually had to figure out lots of it and had several hundred qualified pakistani nuclear doctorates to help him, he had to actually figure out a lot and it took him a long time. He was a notorious for selling bs parts on the blackmarket to throw off others and no one ever made a bomb with his help in practice.

AnonymousObserver

Anonymous Observer

But you really don't need a first class, modern military to build a crude nuke. It's 1940's technology. Look at North Korea for example.

sayyad.shaer

Sayyad Sha'er visit: www.sayyadshaer.com

I also think the "Iranian nuclear program" is being embellished and exaggerated to justify selling billions in modern weaponry to the Arabs and aiding them in developing their own nuclear programs. The real winner is Turkey, they have the wherewithal to actually develop one. With enough exaggeration of Iran's nuclear "prowess", Turkey will throw down its hat and begin its own nuclear program, and it will become the Middle East's nuclear watch dog.

sayyad.shaer

Sayyad Sha'er visit: www.sayyadshaer.com

A nuke doesn't even work as a strong deterrent. To deter a large enemy, you need at least one hundred nukes. One nuke- no one would dare use that against an enemy when the response would be the total decimation of their entire country on a holocaust-like scale.

A modern, strong military is the real deterrent. It's good for internal security and projecting power, it's good to control terrorists and separatists, it's good to provide training and aid to other countries and gain experience, it's good for serving as a check to a government that goes out of its boundaries, and its the sign of a stable, strong society. Without a strong army, even with a nuke, enemies will run all over you. Look at Pakistan with its arsenal of nukes. The country is a separatist's and terrorist's heaven and the US bombed them many times. Their nukes did nothing for them as they are held in check by India's nukes. Iran would be held in check by Israel, the US, and Europe if it were to develop even one nuke. It's not even a logical thing to do for Iran, to build nukes. The whole thing is a farce and the regime in Iran plays defiant to rally people around the flag by making them fear war. But they'd lose faster than the Arabs lost to the Israelis if it came down to that.

AnonymousObserver

Anonymous Observer

True to some extent. BUT, you're substituting logic for a dictatorship / terrorist government's mind frame. As a student of psychology, you should know better. That's not how the IR thinks (nor North Korea for that matter). These folks don't sit around thinking that if they use their only nuke, they will be bombed to oblivion by the guy who has thousands of nukes. That's because their are either messianic and/or they don't give a shit about what happens to the population and the country under their rule. What they believe is that the other side has much more to lose than them. They believe that Israel will not risk having a bomb dropped on it that will essentially get rid of half of the country, or they don't believe that the UK will risk being on the receiving end of even one nuke dropped on London. That's how they think.

sayyad.shaer

Sayyad Sha'er visit: www.sayyadshaer.com

I see what you mean, but I tend to believe that at the messianic and martyrdom stuff is what they peddle to impressionable poor teens and people from poor and dysfunctional backgrounds who make up their hard core supporters. I think the power structure is much like all other regimes, especially dictatorships, and that is survival and a grip on power. From that perspective, I don't think they are going after the bomb with the knowledge that it will be the ultimate deterrent. They see is in a multifaceted way- A) a deterrent for Israel, a minor deterrent that is (given Israel's superb missile defense systems), B) a consolidating move for the regime- embrace a national cause and win more support, and C) something to do to invoke fear of war and get more support at home.

One thing about them is that they are desperate for power. They are so desperate that they defiantly announce their nuclear achievements to the whole world to provoke the West, in order to invoke more fear of war at home and consolidate their grip on power.

amirparvizforsecularmonarchy

amirparvizforsecularmonarchy I Love Waterfalls and Find One of the most humorous things in the world; is the notion that Americans are a greater force for good & more civilized than Nazi's, Mullahs and Communists.

FYI I asked an Iranian Nuclear Scientist from the Shahs era that taught at University around 5 years ago when there was all this serious talk of bombing the IRI and nuke sites about this issue of Iran making a Nuclear device and he said, Iran is incapable of creating the people at university to do such a thing, the operation requires lots of scientists and Iran might be able to produce 2 or 3 from foreign countries, but would still be a couple thousand short of the human infrastructure, so the nuclear issue from the wests stand point is nothing more than a tool to do what ever it is they want to do with Iran and not as a result of any actions the IRI is taking on the nuclear field.

His view was that if the nuclear program had no outside help then there is zero possibility the IRI can even pretend to have the ability to make a bomb. For example if they are given the technology to detonate it maybe, but there is no way they can figure out so many steps on their own.

sayyad.shaer

Sayyad Sha'er visit: www.sayyadshaer.com

And the people smart enough to be nuclear physicists and engineers have already left or have plans to leave. It really just a pre-emptor to balkanization/MKO regime change.

I think the killer was the failure of the "new right" in Iran (Ahmadinejad, Mashaei, etc.) to abide by the rules of the establishment. They actually mixed in too much nationalist rhetoric into their politics and there was a visible fracture in the system. It's showing that the regime is running out of momentum and capable hardliners. This is why they want a regime change, to install the MKO and give Iran another 30 or more years of torture. Every Iranian regime since the British came eventually wavered off its puppet origins and became too fractured/rebellious for its own good. I think they don't want what the Shah did to happen again (not follow rules), and they see that there are some people in the "new right" camp that plan on deviating from the current system. They don't want a rebellious and autonomous Iran. So it's time to bring in the wonderful Mrs. Rajavi.

sayyad.shaer

Sayyad Sha'er visit: www.sayyadshaer.com

I look at Iran's military and hang my head in shame. So much potential, such a great military tradition for thousands of years, so much buying power, and yet they mount German light-machine guns on rusty pickup trucks like the Taliban and call it "mechanized infantry".

amirparvizforsecularmonarchy

amirparvizforsecularmonarchy I Love Waterfalls and Find One of the most humorous things in the world; is the notion that Americans are a greater force for good & more civilized than Nazi's, Mullahs and Communists.

The motor bikes crack me up, with guns and batons.

They figured out something important for true dictators, how to never fear foreign invasion due to giving away every resource and being weak, while scaring the unarmed population who has no help from a western world that loves the IRI which the west helped bring to power by deceiving Iranians about the late shah.

amirparvizforsecularmonarchy

amirparvizforsecularmonarchy I Love Waterfalls and Find One of the most humorous things in the world; is the notion that Americans are a greater force for good & more civilized than Nazi's, Mullahs and Communists.

This comment was removed by the Iranian.com Staff for violating our Commenting Standards

amirparvizforsecularmonarchy

amirparvizforsecularmonarchy I Love Waterfalls and Find One of the most humorous things in the world; is the notion that Americans are a greater force for good & more civilized than Nazi's, Mullahs and Communists.

So theoretically, since the article was written in October and 2-4 months is up, they now have enough nuclear material, and now just need the 10 months to make the device, seriously the IRI scientists all 3 of them must be laughing their rear ends off. "Areh Jooneh Amat." In 10 months they can't even build a house in Iran. Who the hell writes this stuff?????

To qualify as an Ayatollah You have to be the most dumb 10% of the most dumb 10% of the Most dumb 10% to the power or 10, or have an IQ in the lowest 0.000000001% of the entire population, and such a person can make anything happen? Really? How khar is the world to believe this reporting?

The world should be more concerned with the new high tech nano lazer guided speed of light Allah Bullet invented by IRI scientists, which can kill target with out harming any innocent by standers up to a range of 20,000 miles away from any hand gun. Azbast Koreh Khar to donya haste.

amirparvizforsecularmonarchy

amirparvizforsecularmonarchy I Love Waterfalls and Find One of the most humorous things in the world; is the notion that Americans are a greater force for good & more civilized than Nazi's, Mullahs and Communists.

The funny thing with the article is that the only thing that can be accomplished in Iran in 10 months is planning an escape from Iran to the west, thanks to the well thought out, intelligently executed revolution by a people whose false pride was so great and immense, they honestly believed "they could do a better job than the late shahs team".

To their credit at least the Shahs team was wise enough not to support Iranians in harming themselves and at least the late shah left the country while ordering troops to do the impossible and try to keep order while not firing on protestors under any condition.

Liberated

Liberated

North Korea style of isolation;

The only reason the regime wants nuclear weapons is immune from foreign intervention, to be able to completely isolate Iran. completely close the doors, continue brainwashing the population with chooslamic ideology so they can continue to stay in power for the rest of our lives.

I hate violence but knocking their capabilty out would be a great service to the Iranian people. Dont care who does it either.

amirparvizforsecularmonarchy

amirparvizforsecularmonarchy I Love Waterfalls and Find One of the most humorous things in the world; is the notion that Americans are a greater force for good & more civilized than Nazi's, Mullahs and Communists.

they won't get it unless others have a plan to give it to them, not to keep them but for instability.

Extremism can't just stay in power without harming none, north korea has only recently developed icbm, unlike iran they are a real threat as you will see, once they get a fleet of 50 to 100 weapons they will not sit quiet.

hopefully N Korea does not partner with IRI to have even worse impact