"In the one-party state of the foreign policy community, where previously the room to maneuver for those who oppose US intervention has been strictly limited, what we are now experiencing is a period of glasnost where the parameters of the permissible are being widened beyond our wildest dreams. The objective conditions – economic downturn, and the subsequent trend toward retrenchment – are combining with the subjective conditions (the neocons’ overplaying their hand) to create a perfect storm of opportunity for anti-interventionists. For the Campaign to Criticize Hagel is giving way to a Campaign to Criticize Bill Kristol and Beat Back the Rightist Wind – and boy oh boy, I can hardly wait for the fun to begin!

Because what this means is that the neocons, and not Hagel, are going to be put on trial. Their political tools, Lindsay Graham and John McCain, will be made to look ridiculous as they try to take on the first enlisted man to be nominated for Defense Secretary, a war hero with two Purple Hearts and a no-nonsense mien. Major Jewish organizations are backing down, left and right, withdrawing from what at first appeared to be a united front against Hagel: the Anti-Defamation League issued a mild statement, basically saying they wouldn’t oppose Hagel but still have "concerns." Others followed suit. Barney Frank, the Great Pink Hope of the "Hagel-hates-show-tunes" crowd, reversed his anti-Hagel stance less than 24 hours after announcing it: he apparently found the prospect of being in bed with Bill Kristol distasteful enough to make him change his mind. I’m not sure if the Armenians have backed down, as yet, but I’ll report new defections as they occur.

As for the Legacy Factor: remember that this is Obama’s second and hopefully last term. He has four years to build his Legacy – some world-historical accomplishment his hagiographers can point to and say "That was a great man!" What does he have so far? Well, not much, unless you consider wrecking the country’s economy a great achievement, which I do not. The domestic economic situation is not going to improve much over the next four years, and I think the President knows that this will be an uphill battle. So where does that leave his Legacy?

Most Presidents move on the foreign policy front in their second terms, and this one will be no exception. And where this President is likely to make his move is where two of his Democratic predecessors tried – and failed – to make their respective marks, and that is in finally forging a lasting peace accord in the Middle East.

In spite of all the "I have Israel’s back" rhetoric, the President no doubt recognizes what any objective observer of the region has to acknowledge: that the expansionist designs of the current Israeli government are the main obstacle to regional peace and stability. Stubbornly defying the US on the settlements issue, and now openly considering annexing much of the West Bank, the Israelis don’t want an accord: they want a Greater Israel.

Up until now, the President has had both hands tied behind his back when it comes to this issue: facing pressure not only from the far right but also from within his own party, he hasn’t dared cross the Israelis. With the election over, and with the Israelis moving rapidly into a suicidal ultra-nationalism, Obama can now make his move – and the Hagel appointment is his opening shot.

Before he can formulate a workable peace plan, one that is acceptable not only to the Palestinians but to an increasingly pro-Palestinian world audience, he must first break the power of the Israel lobby on the home front. Their over-reaching has made them vulnerable, and their inability to block the Hagel nomination is going to unleash a series of developments that would have been unthinkable but a few months ago.

Whether Obama will achieve his goal, and cement his Legacy firmly in place, remains to be seen, but one thing is for sure: the neocons and the Israel lobby are being handed a big defeat, and their dominance in the foreign policy field is ended – and for that we have not only Hagel, but this President, to thank. Not that he did it on purpose, or on principle: not that he’s an anti-interventionist (he clearly isn’t): but sometimes History thrusts the most unlikely tasks on the most unlikely people, and this is one of those times."