The Damascus Revolutionary Council claims that a defected Syrian pilot has carried out airstrikes on positions of regime forces in Moadimiyeh, near Damascus.
If true, it is the first time in the conflict that a pilot has turned his fire against the Syrian military. (Source: Enduring America)
OBSERVATION: If not now, later. The rebels claim to have several such defectors. All they've needed are captured planes or copters. I've been expecting something like this for some time. Assad's forces with their heavy equipment are potentially quite vulnerable to air power though they do have anti-air capability supposedly manned by Russians who supplied most ot the equipment being used against the Syrian people.
ITEM The Christian Science Monitor highlights a video, circulating on YouTube, which suppposedly celebrates Iraqi Shia and members of Lebanon's Hezbollah fighting for the Syrian regime.
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2013/0118/Video-appears-to-show-Hezbollah-and-Iraqi-Shiites-fighting-in-Syria?nav=88-csm_category-storyList
In a tweet online David Kenner, Foreign Policy editor, supports the assertion of Iraqi involvement but is sceptical of the claim over Hezbollah fighters.
ITEM: The syrian governement is creating a news armed force. The national defense army, with a distinct uniform, comprised of civilians wich have served in the army. The force will be strong of 10 000 men.
PREDICTION: This is a sign of desperation and defeat. Hitler made an identical move as Russians approached Berlin, creating near useless forces consisting of old WW I vets and young boys who more often got in the way of actual German defense troops.
Down the road I wouldn't be surprised if Assad's security forces issue orders to execute any man or boy over a certain age who lacked papers proving he is where he is supposed to be on a given date. Those without papers would be executed on the spot.
To date, Assad has followed Hitler's pattern in so many other ways, particularly in his attitude that "If I go down, I'll take Syria with me." Again I recommend the German film, "Downfall," to see what Syria can expect.
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FG
ReportFurther reflections on Assad's new military unit and its significance
This new unit must by its very nature be a relatively weak--far more suited to terrorizing civilians that fighting determined, hard-bitten, motivated and experienced rebels. That Assad feels the need for it anyway speaks volumes about its very limited and increasingly reluctant pool of reliable manpower to replace any losses and carry out critical tasks. As for forces in the north, surely they are gone for good, like Hitler's 300,000 man Sixth Army at Stalingrad. Such losses take a huge toll.
To garrison and hold western Damascus is job enough but the regime has now been forced into costly offenses in order to regain two "must have" locations." In this urban combat the regime suffers further. It has tried for weeks to take Darayya and now scrapes the barrel for a similar effort in Homs where troops will likely bog down as well. For now that's all the rebels need to do for now in both cases. Anything more would just be icing on the cake.
Assad would have a far easier task in both cases if the rebel fighters were not so motivated both be regime atrocities against families and neighbors and knowledge of how the regime has treated anyone who gave up elsewhere.
Those offensives thin out forces in Damascus where the rebels now control most of the East and probably more after Deir Al Zor and its energy resouces fall. Should either offense succeed (both locations be critical) the regime can't hold what it has regained without garrisoning each because the rebels will surely be back.
FG
ReportSyria troops, rebels fight near regime bases in northeast/ Assad rushing reinforcements to Homs
http://news.yahoo.com/syria-troops-rebels-fight-near-bases-northeast-122513830.html
Analysis: WHY IS CONTROL OF HOMS SO IMPORTANT?
I've never been to Syria, but looking at any map of major roads between Damascus and the coast suggests its importance. The regime apparently feels so as well, judging by the attention Homs is getting.
At the same time Assad's troops have been bogged down in another offensive at a "must hold" location, Darayya. Such urban warfare causes losses in regime manpower which can't easily be replaced, given its limited bases of support. Those losses stem from both casualties and defections. Urban warfare is also hard are morale. It will be interesting to see how long the regime can keep it up while the rebel forces become more numerous.
Suppose rebel forces can be detached from their hold on critical areas in Homs. What damage can they do? They can block land supplies from the coast. In event of a rebel offensive along the coast, the rebels can block or delay regime reinforcements.
Suppose the rebels managed to seize control of Homs after the north falls. In that case they have several options while the regime suffers more severe constraints. One possibility is to move on Damascus from the northwest (The rebels already control most of eastern Damascus. Another possibility would be to launch an assault toward Tartous from the east, leaving blocking forces behiind. If Lattakia has fallen, a second force can move southward along the coast.
I suspect that by that time the number of usuable airbases and related equipment still in the regime's hands will be much smaller which would help either offensive.
FG
ReportRussian ships to pick up munitions on way to Syria
http://news.yahoo.com/russian-ships-pick-munitions-head-syria-172504640.html
Two Russian ships heading for a naval exercise off Syria this month are picking up munitions on their way to the Syrian port of Tartous, news agencies reported on Thursday.
REBEL OPTION: Once the north falls--instead of fighting the Battle of Damascus against dug-in Assad forces--seize the coast from Lattakia to Tartous, leaving a blocking force at Homs to prevent reinforcements. Afterwards, rebels can gradually strangle Assad forces trapped in cities and surrounded by enemy-held countryside as rebels gradually elminating Assad's aerial capacities by seizing all airports. This deprives the bad guys of an chance of escape by air as well and leaves the rebels with the aerial monopoly against equipment highly vulnerable to air power.
SIX MORE GREAT REASONS FOR A COAST-FIRST STRATEGY:
1. Not only would it cut off supplies from Russia, it would also cut off Assad's manpower recruitment pool and accesss to food, medine and military supplies. Cut off regime reinforcement pool, food, and medicine as well as military supplies.
2. The demoralizing effect on Assad's mainly Alawite forces would be huge.
3. The move could encourage more high defections and even a coup
4. The move could force Assad's troops to move toward the coast, leaving Damascus lightly defended.
5. Destroy any illusions about surviving in a coastal enclave (This one so greatly resembles Hitler's dream of a last stand in Bavaria).
6. The fall of Tartous would likely cause the Russians to abandon their base their. They'd also likely evaporate ethnic Russians and their family (depriving Assad of another source of military manpower.