THE NORTH & NORTHWEST: Idlib is doomed. About 75% percent of Aleppo in rebel hands. The fall of Deir Al Zor's and most regime energy supplies with it is also a matter of time. None of these areas can expect resupply by land. Meanwhile air bases are being lost one by one.
DAMASCUS & SUBURBS: Eastern Damascus has been almost solidly "rebel" for some time. Having failed to take back Darayya, Assad's forces are losing other southwestern suburbs. The attack on Al Qadam not only appears to have failed but is starting to look like a nifty rebel victory. That will have morale and manpower consequences for both sides.
NEARBY CITIES: Regime offensives in Hamas and Homs appear to be going nowhere. Look for increasing rebel strength in both, decreasing regime strength in both. Rebel control of Homs or part of it will cut off land supply and reinforcements between Damascus and the coast.
THE COAST: Latakia was to be a safe refuge yet the rebels have captured the surrounding countryside and their numbers continue to grow. Assuming the rebels can seal off the coast by taking blocking routes in Homs, Tartous and the rest have no chance of survival.
LOOKING AHEAD: Once Assad's forces are cut off from the coast and once they lose all offensive capacities their only choice is to hunker down as growing rebel forces shell them from nearby suburbs and snipers and defections erode their forces further.
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FG
ReportMartin Chulov of the Guardian has a fine article on rebel advances in the Latakia area. Some of the rebels are Al Nusrah who have occupied Alawite homes but have refrained (so far) from looting Christian homes. That suggests the sort of attitudes on might expect down the road.
Here's an excerpt that will give you some idea of the degree to which sectarianism is playing a role and how much of a pounding Assad's forces have taken in the area.
Evidence of the regime forces' flight from the villages of Jebel al-Krud is everywhere. Along a highway near another Christian village, al-Ghassaneyah, scores of makeshift graves have been dug for Syrian army soldiers killed in battles for nearby areas.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jan/28/war-syria-mountains
Several dozen destroyed armoured personnel carriers, lorries and tanks dot the roadside. Torched and rusting formations of armour mark overrun checkpoints that not long ago were part of Latakia's ring of defence. Battleground Christian and Alawite villages are largely abandoned. Al-Nusra had not looted the homes of Christian families who have fled, said Abu Ghaith. "They are being careful about them," he said. "But they do whatever they want with the Alawites."
Resentment of the minority Alawite sect, to which Bashar al-Assad belongs and from which he draws his power, is close to universal among rebels in the area. However, while non-jihadists dislike the Alawites because of their links to the regime, al-Nusra's distaste centres on their beliefs.
FG
ReportEA reports heavy fighting near Damascus Airport southeast of Damascus, in East Ghouta (north of the airport) and in Al Qadam, southwest of Damascus.
The airport has been shelled with thick clouds of smoke now overhanging. In Qadam rebels have overrun the railroad station and a you tube video shows a tank being destroyed.http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2013/1/28/syria-live-coverage-chances-of-assads-preservation-are-small.html#disqus_thread