What's at stake in Daraya and how is the battle going? ▪ Iranian.com

Excellent article: Ferocious battle for strategic suburb could hold the keys to Damascus (+video)

EXCERPTS:

“The regime and its supporters [Russia and Iran] are investing all in the counterattack [on Daraya] to ensure Mr. Assad’s grip on power. But if it fails, the regime will be in a very difficult position, internally and externally,” says a Western diplomat...

Daraya is an important component in the rebel Free Syrian Army's effort to establish an uninterrupted belt of territory under its control connecting the northern, eastern, and southern suburbs of Damascus. Once those neighborhoods have been secured and sufficient numbers of fighters, weapons, and ammunition have been deployed, the FSA can commit to an assault on central Damascus in a bid to oust the regime from its center of power....

It also lies adjacent to Mezze military airport, which is the only air lifeline for the regime in the capital since the closure of Damascus International Airport in November. (And what happens if that airport becomes unusable?)...

...some 60 percent of what is left of the Syrian Army (following months of defections) is deployed in Damascus...they basically have a skeleton crew outside of Damascus and Homs.” (Don't these figures suggest possibilities?)

Although the offensive was renewed on Jan. 16, the elite Fourth Armored Division has been engaged in combat in Daraya on a near continual basis since November. In general, the Syrian Army is ill-trained for the street fighting necessary in urban areas such as Daraya....

The FSA has described Daraya as a “big slaughterhouse,” and it seems the intention is to grind down the manpower and will of the regular forces. The FSA has encouraged the local population to leave, and only some 10 to 15 percent of residents still remain....

... says Andrew Tabler, a Syria expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "What's interesting is that despite the use of special forces and despite the concentration on Daraya, they are unable [so far] to clear and hold the area."

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2013/0130/Ferocious-battle-for-strategic-suburb-could-hold-the-keys-to-Damascus-video?nav=87-frontpage-entryNineItem

Report

Another report on Darayaa suggests a possible rebel strategy

Syrian rebels make slow headway in south

http://news.yahoo.com/donors-meet-target-1-5-billion-aid-stricken-055120224.html

RE: Abu Hamza, the commander in the Ababeel Hawran Brigade, was among many rebels and opposition figures to lament the toughness of the task facing Assad's enemies in the south: "What is killing us is that all of Hawran is a military area," he said.

This ties in with the observation in the lead post that 60% of Assad's forces are concentrated in the South which raises this question, "How do you adjust if you are the rebels?"

THE LOGICAL REBEL COURSE:

1. Go after everything else--the north, the coast, Homs (if possible) or at least set up blocking routes between there and the coast.

2. Continue harassment of Assad's forces in Damascus.

3. Except where opportunity arises in the south, avoid taking the offensive and playing into Assad's strength. For his limit troops on the offensive in urban areas where terrain favors the rebels.

Unfortunately this rebel approach will take time--unless western policy changes. In the long run it must and will force a substantial portion of Assad's forces out of the Damascus area into costly offensive attacks.. Obviously, those forces can hardly afford to sit and watch while everything else falls--including their home communities.

So long as Obama sticks to his present "no military aid" policy, the Syria people and Syria's infrastructure will continue to pay a high cost as the bombs continue to fall. Once that changes the life span of Assad's regime drops rapidly and with it his capacity to destroy the country. In a period of economic constraints, Obama's willingness to engage in any military action will be limited. However, the more rebuilding Syria needs afterwards, the more costly that will be to everyone.

It's clear that the regime will continue to bomb the Syrian people, their homes, business and infrastructure regardless of what strategy the rebels follow so such strategy must be based on a patient and long-term plan that does not assume western help.

Taking the coast hostage, the rebels can--if necessary--retaliate for any further Assad destruction by laying waste Alawite communities if it is the only way to stop such destruction short of a change of heart by Obama. Are there reliable units he can equip with anti-air and anti-tank weapons--units that have been trained in their use?