1. How many months have gone by since the regime has won even a small victory?
Rounding up and slaughtering of all males or more in a given neighborhood, or the bombing of such neighborhoods and civilian breadlines.
2. When was the last time the rebels went a whole week without a victory? I count as victories the capture of a town, base, prison, base, HQ or supply route, or the destruction of a convoy, the blocking of an airport, etc.
3. How greatly has the situation changed from just a year ago?
Victories, small and large, keep adding up and at an accelerating pace. If they take time, its because the rebels win them the smart way--going after targets of opportunity, such as convoy, but otherwise surrounding a "strong: target, shut off supply, wear down the defenders and encourage defectors.
I'm reminded of how a pack of hyenas take down a lion. By the time rebels launch their winning assault, only the hard corps of regime types is there for the killing. The rest have melted away.
Today's outstanding EA summary of military trends at present in Syria is a dismal one if one looks at it from the regime's point of view. Assad and his inner council, like Hitler and his generals in January of 1945 are living in a fantasy world to imagine the regime can still turn this around. Link: