1. How many months have gone by since the regime has won even a small victory?
Rounding up and slaughtering of all males or more in a given neighborhood, or the bombing of such neighborhoods and civilian breadlines.
2. When was the last time the rebels went a whole week without a victory? I count as victories the capture of a town, base, prison, base, HQ or supply route, or the destruction of a convoy, the blocking of an airport, etc.
3. How greatly has the situation changed from just a year ago?
Victories, small and large, keep adding up and at an accelerating pace. If they take time, its because the rebels win them the smart way--going after targets of opportunity, such as convoy, but otherwise surrounding a "strong: target, shut off supply, wear down the defenders and encourage defectors.
I'm reminded of how a pack of hyenas take down a lion. By the time rebels launch their winning assault, only the hard corps of regime types is there for the killing. The rest have melted away.
Today's outstanding EA summary of military trends at present in Syria is a dismal one if one looks at it from the regime's point of view. Assad and his inner council, like Hitler and his generals in January of 1945 are living in a fantasy world to imagine the regime can still turn this around. Link:
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FG
ReportMAJOR REBEL GAINS ARE NOW BEING REPORTED IN DAMASCUS AREA
Late in the day, Enduring America is reporting major advances in the Damascus area, especially critical Dariyaa, to go with recent gains in Aleppo and Idlib.
If you missed those updates at the link provided above, they are must reading because the game seems to be changing fast. You'll also see that in Damascus it's the FSA, not the Islamist factions, that have been making real headway. You'll also see why.
EA also notes that the rebels, for whatever reason, seem a bit less fearful of regime air power. Some rebel artillery in the north has even been operating out in the open.
In Damascus, the regime even seems to be reporting fake flights to keep up the impression the airports are operating as usual. That apparently is not the case.
So if you checked the link I provided in the lead post, it's time to go there again.
FG
ReportNY TIMES: Bulgaria Implicates Hezbollah in Deadly Israeli Bus Blast
The TImes points out the significance for the Iran-linked militia whose future The announcement could force the European Union to reconsider whether to designate the group as a terrorist organization and crack down on its extensive fund-raising operations across the continent. That could have wide-reaching repercussions for Europe’s uneasy détente with the group, which is an influential force in Middle East politics, considers Israel an enemy and has extensive links with Iran.
is already endangered by Assad's likely fall:
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/06/world/europe/bulgaria-implicates-hezbollah-in-deadly-israeli-bus-blast.html?hp&_r=0
FG
ReportI think readers here will appreciate the following article on "Iran's grand designs. The article looks into why Iran is involved in so many convert schemes worldwide, the expenses involved and the consequences both for the IRI and the world.
Here's a few excerpts:
We must commend Iran’s ability to preoccupy the world, financing crises and initiating battles in Lebanon, Gaza, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Eritrea, Somalia, Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, and Bahrain. This is not to mention south-east Asian and Central African countries, in addition to Tehran’s supporting its affiliates and agents in the west. Iran is akin to a superpower with a finger in every pie across the world. The natural question that must be asked here is: Where does Iran get all these funds and capabilities? Why don’t we see a richer country, such as Saudi Arabia, for example, with the same expansionist tendencies?
Iran certainly possesses a desire and enthusiasm to spend, or shall we say squander, its money setting up fires across the world. Iran excels at this type of activity...(meanwhile)...Saudi Arabia is spending huge amounts of money on scholarships for 150,000 students to study at western universities.
...What does Iran mean to say by way of its massive military spending and propaganda regarding its scientific achievements? Perhaps it aims to assert that it will be victorious in the next major war? Or that it is a superpower and therefore deserves a seat on the the UN Security Council? Or that it is a country capable of challenging international sanctions? Or is all of this merely propaganda aimed at the domestic scene in order to soothe the Iranian citizens who have paid for militarization and foreign adventures in order to satisfy the ego of President Ahmadinejad, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and the Supreme Leader. Inflation has eaten up the Iranian citizens savings and they now rely on government aid to buy bread and fuel. This propaganda is similar what the North Korean regime feeds its people, speaking of international conspiracies and military accomplishments. While during the Mao Zedong era, the Chinese state also distracted the people with such rhetoric.
http://asharq-e.com/news.asp?section=2&id=32807